Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc (2159) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc HK$0.57, price HK$1.70, upside -66.5%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.3050 – HK$2.53 · fair‑value band HK$0.4505 – HK$0.6715 · the HK$1.70 price screens above the HK$0.5695 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc., an investment holding company, provides integrated healthcare marketing solutions in the People's Republic of China.
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Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc., an investment holding company, provides integrated healthcare marketing solutions in the People's Republic of China. The company offers academic conference management system, a digital management system for medical conference; scientific data reporting system, a technical service of single disease clinical research data collection; Medical Media, an official WeChat of tiantan international cerebrovascular disease conference; and health education media, a health science cloud platform, patient care center, patient management center, and health education media. It also provides medical conference, patient education and screening, and marketing strategy and consulting services; digital marketing and sales solutions services; contract research organization services; and internet hospital services. In addition, the company offers digital therapy services; science research and development services; and IT and software services. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc (2159) currently trades at HK$1.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.5695, 66.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$0.8400 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the HK$1.70 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.2900, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.4505 (bear) to HK$0.6715 (bull), the price of HK$1.70 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc reported revenue of 468M CNY in FY2025 versus 708M CNY in FY2021, a compound −9.8%/yr. Reported net income was 10.0M CNY in FY2025, compounding +21.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$440M (≈ $56.0M) · P/E ratio 32.4 · P/S ratio 0.69 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0300 · Net margin 2.1% · Return on equity 7.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −16.9% · Operating margin 1.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at −67%, 2159 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.4505Fair Value HK$0.5695Bull HK$0.6715
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+45.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−15.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 0%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+54.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +52.3% a year for the price.
Compare Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Health Information Services · 130 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside−66.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7.8% · Above median
Return on assets0.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)2.1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)1.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth88.5% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Health Information Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)32.4× · Pricier than median
P/B3.37× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.80× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF151.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA98.3× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 34
PAST (return on equity)31· sector 7
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 44
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc (2159) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.5695 versus a price of HK$1.70, about −67% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2159?
Our model-based fair value for Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc is HK$0.5695 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.70.
What is the quality score of 2159?
Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc (2159)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.5695 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.4505, optimistic scenario HK$0.6715. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.5695, about −67% upside versus a price of HK$1.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.4505, optimistic scenario HK$0.6715. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc (2159)?
Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 468M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc (2159)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +54.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.6 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2159 use?
Our models discount Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc that is +54.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc (2159) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc grew +1.6 % a year. The price currently implies +54.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc (2159) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc (+54.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc (2159)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.75 %: that much free cash flow Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc (2159)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc it is HK$0.5695 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$1.70. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 2159 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$1.70, fair value HK$0.5695, a gap of about −67% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2159?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.5695). For Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc the two are HK$1.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc worth?
The market values Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc at about HK$440M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.70; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.5695 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2159?
Our models span a range for Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc: cautious scenario HK$0.4505, base HK$0.5695, optimistic HK$0.6715 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$1.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2159?
Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.4 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.5695 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.4, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 98.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc (2159)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 7.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2159 from its 52-week high?
Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc trades at HK$1.70, about 21% below its 52-week high of HK$2.15 and 55% above the low of HK$1.10 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.5695 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Veeva Systems Inc, Pro Medicus Limited, BrightSpring Health Services, Inc, Hinge Health, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$1.70, calculated fair value HK$0.5695 (−67%), Quality Score 58/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2159 calculated?
We run Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.5695, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc (2159)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$1.70. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.5695, about −67% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.6715). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc (2159)?
The market capitalisation of Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc is HK$440M (≈ $56.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc (2159)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc is 0.69 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc (2159)?
Earnings per share at Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc are HK$−0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 32.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc (2159)?
The net margin of Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc is 2.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc (2159)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc is 7.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc (2159)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc is −16.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc (2159)?
The operating margin of Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc is 1.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc (2159)?
Revenue at Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc is growing +88.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc (2159)?
Earnings per share at Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc are growing −21.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc (2159) hold?
Mediwelcome Healthcare Management & Technology Inc holds more cash than debt, 44.9M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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