BioNTech SE (22UA) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · DE · Market cap €20.2B
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 10 days ago
Share price +25.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 48% overvalued on our models.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€66.15). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (€34.93 to €66.15) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €68.85 – €366.84 · fair‑value band €34.93 – €66.15 · the €101.70 price screens above the €52.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
BioNTech SE (22UA) currently trades at €101.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €52.92, implying the stock looks roughly 48.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, BioNTech SE generated revenue of €2.8B at a net margin of -44.6%. Revenue declined 35.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -6.7%. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €34.93 (bear case) to €66.15 (bull case); at €101.70, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -60% fair-value upside, at -48%, 22UA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
BioNTech SE, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development and commercialization of immunotherapies in Germany. The company offers BNT162, an mRNA vaccine for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2 virus.
Full company description
BioNTech SE, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development and commercialization of immunotherapies in Germany. The company offers BNT162, an mRNA vaccine for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2 virus. It also develops oncology drugs under Phase III clinical trial, including Gotistobart for metastatic non-small cell lung cancer, Pumitamig for small cell lung cancer and advanced/metastatic triple-negative breast cancer, and Trastuzumab pamirtecan for metastatic breast cancer and epirubicin and cyclophosphamide; and drugs under Phase 2/3 clinical trial, such as BNT113 for human papillomavirus and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, as well as Pumitamig for metastatic colorectal and non-small cell lung cancer. In addition, the company engages in the development of oncology drugs under Phase II clinical trial comprising BNT116 for advance non-small cell lung cancer, BNT326/YL202 for multiple solid tumors and advanced/metastatic breast cancer, Autogene cevumeran for advance colorectal cancer, and Gotistobart for platinum-resistant ovarian cancer, as well as Pumitamig for glioblastoma, hepatocellular carcinoma, malignant pleural mesothelioma, neuroendocrine neoplasms, and metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. Further, it develops BNT166 which is Phase II clinical trial for mpox virus; and infectious diseases drugs under Phase 1/2 clinical trial, which include BNT162 + BNT161 for SARS-CoV-2 and influenza, BNT164 for tuberculosis, BNT165 for malaria, and BNT166 for mpox. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Mainz, Germany.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
BioNTech SE reported revenue of €2.9B in FY2025 versus €19.0B in FY2021, a compound −37.6%/yr. Reported net income was −€1.1B in FY2025.
22UA screens 48% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $525.73 | $278.78 | -47% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $797.99 | $594.40 | -26% |
| argenx SE ARGX | €877.60 | €292.84 | -67% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,549,000 KRW | 1,055,793 KRW | -32% |
| Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY | $228.61 | $51.70 | -77% |
| Royalty Pharma plc RPRX | $60.58 | $24.22 | -60% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 202,000 KRW | 74,519 KRW | -63% |
| BeOne Medicines AG ONC | $362.51 | $111.35 | -69% |
| Moderna, Inc MRNA | $63.67 | $12.77 | -80% |
| Incyte Corporation INCY | $120.77 | $115.79 | -4% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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