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Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) (2315) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) HK$36.07, price HK$70.00, upside -48.5%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · HK

BP Some data Oct 1, 2026

Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing)

2315 · HK

Stretched ValuationQuality growthStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value HK$36.07 · Strongly overvalued (−48.5%)
!Quality 59/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +40.3 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 21.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
✓Wide moat 85/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$70.30 HK$5.60 Fair Value HK$36.07 Sep 2022 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.

How to read this chart

49‑month range HK$5.60 – HK$70.30 · fair‑value band HK$25.26 – HK$46.90 · the HK$70.00 price screens above the HK$36.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.

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Company profile

Biocytogen Pharmaceuticals (Beijing) Co., Ltd., a biotechnology company, engages in the research and development of novel antibody-based drugs and pre-clinical research services in the People's Republic of China, the United States, and internationally.

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Biocytogen Pharmaceuticals (Beijing) Co., Ltd., a biotechnology company, engages in the research and development of novel antibody-based drugs and pre-clinical research services in the People's Republic of China, the United States, and internationally. It operates through five segments: Gene-Editing; Pharmacological Efficacy; Model Animals; Antibody Development; and Other. The company provides the customized gene editing services based on animals and cells to meet the needs of basic science research and drug development of the customers; provides the pre-clinical pharmacology service for drug efficacy and toxicity evaluation; engages in breeding and selling animal models for the external and internal use, including set of genetically engineered mice, disease mouse models and aged small animals; engages un utilizing the Group's own antibody discovery platforms to identify antibodies which have the potential to become drug candidates; and engages in research and development of innovative drugs with a focus on oncology and autoimmune disease therapeutics. The company also offers YH001, a recombinant humanized anti-cytotoxic t-lymphocyte associated protein 4 immunoglobulin G1 (IgG1) monoclonal antibody for the treatment of patients with advanced solid tumors; It also develops YH002, a recombinant humanized IgG1 antibody that targets the human tumor necrosis factor receptor superfamily, member 4 receptor, which is Phase I clinical trial. The company has collaboration with Syncromune, Inc.; a license agreement with RemeGen Co., Ltd.; license agreement with Chipscreen NewWay Biosciences. Biocytogen Pharmaceuticals (Beijing) Co., Ltd. was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Stock analysis

Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) (2315) currently trades at HK$70.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$36.07, 48.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$25.95 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$70.00 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$3.84, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: HK$25.26 (bear) to HK$46.90 (bull), the price of HK$70.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) reported revenue of 1.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 355M CNY in FY2021, a compound +40.4%/yr. Reported net income was 173M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$31.0B (≈ $4.0B) · P/E ratio 68.0 · P/S ratio 8.55 · Net margin 12.6% · Return on equity 22.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −7.5% · Operating margin 35.4% · Revenue (TTM) 1.7B CNY.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 209% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −48%, 2315 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$25.26 Fair Value HK$36.07 Bull HK$46.90
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$18.12 HK$25.95 HK$50.37 75
EPV HK$9.62 HK$10.56 HK$11.38 74
Growth DCF HK$17.24 HK$29.55 HK$49.39 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$18.12 HK$25.95 HK$50.37 75
Owner Earnings HK$15.73 HK$30.46 HK$60.26 70
5Y Revenue Exit HK$13.04 HK$19.18 HK$31.95 69
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$16.73 HK$26.62 HK$46.02 71
5Y P/E Exit HK$13.32 HK$23.56 HK$37.21 67
10Y Revenue Exit HK$14.43 HK$25.54 HK$32.06 65
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$17.34 HK$33.29 HK$60.82 63
10Y P/E Exit HK$14.91 HK$26.12 HK$43.85 60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$3.10 HK$21.64 HK$30.37 61
Lynch FV HK$11.18 HK$15.97 HK$20.76 59
PEG = 1.0 HK$11.18 HK$15.97 HK$20.76 55
EPV HK$9.62 HK$10.56 HK$11.38 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$7.53 HK$10.04 HK$12.55 63
P/S Multiple HK$5.82 HK$7.76 HK$9.70 58
P/B Multiple HK$5.82 HK$7.76 HK$9.70 55
EV/EBIT HK$12.97 HK$16.09 HK$19.21 66
EV/EBITDA HK$15.76 HK$19.80 HK$23.85 67
EV/Revenue HK$10.29 HK$13.15 HK$16.01 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$2.86 HK$3.84 HK$5.73 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$17.24 HK$29.55 HK$49.39 74
Rev-Margin DCF HK$13.98 HK$21.43 HK$37.07 68
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$4.69 HK$5.00 HK$5.59 68
ROIC Compounder HK$11.57 HK$15.92 HK$20.99 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$14.84 HK$21.20 HK$27.56 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 80

Profitability 41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 86
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 80
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 42
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 87
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 23
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+40.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−141.4% (2020) → 20.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+36.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +34.1% a year for the price.

2315 screens overvalued: fair value 48% below the price. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 631 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 59 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −48.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 22.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 21.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 35.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 36.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.09× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 68.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B 12.19× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 15.60× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 93.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 47.9× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)88 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)96 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 22

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $527.67 $580.44 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $752.25 $1,275 +69%
argenx SE ARGX $959.49 $918.60 −4%
CSL Limited CSL A$176.95 A$194.65 +10%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,366,000 KRW 1,502,600 KRW +10%
BeOne Medicines AG ONC $360.85 $280.94 −22%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $255.96 $217.88 −15%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.21 $19.01 −67%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 HK$53.00 HK$58.30 +10%

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Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) · Fair Value
HK$36.07 −48%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2315

Frequently asked questions

Is Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) (2315) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$36.07 versus a price of HK$70.00, about −48% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2315?
Our model-based fair value for Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) is HK$36.07 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$70.00.
What is the quality score of 2315?
Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) (2315)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$36.07 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$25.26, optimistic scenario HK$46.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$36.07, about −48% upside versus a price of HK$70.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$25.26, optimistic scenario HK$46.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) (2315)?
Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) (2315)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) would have to grow free cash flow by +36.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +40.3 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2315 use?
Our models discount Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.14, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) that is +36.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) (2315) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) grew +40.3 % a year. The price currently implies +36.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) (2315) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) (+36.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) (2315)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.06 %: that much free cash flow Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) (2315)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) it is HK$36.07 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of HK$70.00. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 2315 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$70.00, fair value HK$36.07, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2315?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$70.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$36.07). For Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) the two are HK$33.93 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) worth?
The market values Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) at about HK$31.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is HK$70.00; our models calculate a fair value of HK$36.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2315?
Our models span a range for Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing): cautious scenario HK$25.26, base HK$36.07, optimistic HK$46.90 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price HK$70.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2315?
Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 68.0 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$36.07 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 12.2, P/S 15.6, EV/EBITDA 47.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) (2315)?
Balance-sheet figures for Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 22.1%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2315 from its 52-week high?
Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) trades at HK$70.00, at its 52-week high of HK$70.30 and 209% above the low of HK$22.66 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$36.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing)?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price HK$70.00, calculated fair value HK$36.07 (−48%), Quality Score 59/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2315 calculated?
We run Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$36.07, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) (2315)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$70.00. Our model-based fair value is HK$36.07, about −48% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$46.90). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (HK$25.26 to HK$46.90) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing)

How large is the market capitalisation of Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) (2315)?
The market capitalisation of Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) is HK$31.0B (≈ $4.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) (2315)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) is 8.55 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) (2315)?
The net margin of Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) is 12.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) (2315)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) is 22.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) (2315)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) is −7.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) (2315)?
The operating margin of Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) is 35.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) (2315)?
Revenue at Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) is growing +36.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +37.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) (2315)?
Earnings per share at Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) are growing +80.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) (2315) hold?
Biocytogen Pharms (Beijing) holds more cash than debt, 979M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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