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TYK Medicines Inc (2410) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of TYK Medicines Inc stock HK$0.41, price HK$3.06, upside -86.6%, quality 32 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Healthcare HK · Based in China

TM TYK Medicines Inc logo Thin data Oct 27, 2026

TYK Medicines Inc

2410 · HK
Very expensive, weak qualityPrice far above fair value, weak quality and a downtrend.Main risk: Little protection from competitors.

Our calculation puts a fair price 87% below what the stock costs today.

Fair value HK$0.4080 · Strongly overvalued (−86.6%)
Quality 32/100
Weak Growth
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/7)
Narrow moat 5/100
Thin data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$55.50 HK$2.68 Fair Value HK$0.4080 Aug 2024 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

26‑month range HK$2.68 – HK$55.50 · fair‑value band HK$0.3060 – HK$0.6035 · the HK$3.06 price screens above the HK$0.4080 fair value. As of Oct 27, 2026.

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Company profile

TYK Medicines, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, research, development and commercialization of pharmaceutical products.

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Its lead product candidate is TY-9591, a third-generation epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-tyrosine kinase inhibitor for the treatment of brain metastases from non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with EGFR mutations, and in locally advanced or metastatic NSCLC with EGFR L858R mutation.

The company also develops TY-302, an oral cyclin-dependent kinase (CDK) 4/6 inhibitor to treat solid tumors, including breast cancer and prostate cancer; TY-2136b, an oral ROS proto-oncogene 1/neurotrophic tyrosine receptor kinase inhibitor for the treatment of solid tumors; TY-2699a, a selective CDK7 inhibitor for the treatment of advanced/metastatic solid tumors; and TY-0540, a selective CDK2/4/6 inhibitor to treat advanced/metastatic solid tumors.

In addition, it develops TY-1054, an oral yes associated protein-transcriptional enhanced associate domain inhibitor for cancer treatment; CDK4, preclinical-stage oral CDK4 inhibitor for cancer treatment; TY-3002, a small-molecule, orally administered glucagon like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) intended for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and obesity; and EGFR/FAK (PROTAC) and PI3Ka to treat solid tumors; and GLP-1 for the treatment of T2DM and overweight or obesity.

The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Huzhou, China.

Stock analysis

TYK Medicines Inc (2410) currently trades at HK$3.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.4080, 86.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 82/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: HK$0.3060 (bear) to HK$0.6035 (bull), the price of HK$3.06 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

TYK Medicines Inc reported revenue of 0 CNY in FY2025 versus 44.2M CNY in FY2022. Reported net income was −292M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$1.1B (≈ $146M) Micro · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.3000 · Return on equity −80.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −41.7% · Revenue (TTM) HK$107K · Free cash flow −HK$255M · Net cash HK$215M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 5 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 80% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −87%, 2410 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.3060 Fair Value HK$0.4080 Bull HK$0.6035
Price HK$3.06 · Upside -86.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.3600 HK$0.4800 HK$0.7100 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.3600 HK$0.4800 HK$0.7100 51

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 32/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 49
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 16
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 56
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 41
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 0
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 2
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 40
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

2410 screens overvalued: fair value 87% below the price. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 599 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −86.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −37.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 0.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 0.0% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.99× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $816.10 $1,275 +56% vs 2410
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $517.49 $569.24 +10% vs 2410
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,374,000 KRW 1,511,400 KRW +10% vs 2410
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 HK$45.80 HK$50.38 +10% vs 2410
argenx SE ARGX $882.48 $908.40 +3% vs 2410
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $227.66 $217.88 −4% vs 2410
CSL Limited CSL A$196.78 A$178.75 −9% vs 2410
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$217.60 HK$153.56 −29% vs 2410
Celltrion, Inc 068270 188,600 KRW 74,944 KRW −60% vs 2410
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $64.76 $19.01 −71% vs 2410

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TYK Medicines Inc · Fair Value
HK$0.4080 −87%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "TYK Medicines Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2410

Frequently asked questions

Is TYK Medicines Inc (2410) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.4080 versus a price of HK$3.06, about −87% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2410?
Our model-based fair value for TYK Medicines Inc is HK$0.4080 (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$3.06.
What is the quality score of 2410?
TYK Medicines Inc has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TYK Medicines Inc (2410)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.4080 (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.3060, optimistic scenario HK$0.6035. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TYK Medicines Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.4080, about −87% upside versus a price of HK$3.06 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.3060, optimistic scenario HK$0.6035. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TYK Medicines Inc (2410)?
TYK Medicines Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$107K (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of TYK Medicines Inc (2410)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TYK Medicines Inc it is HK$0.4080 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of HK$3.06. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TYK Medicines Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, 2410 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$3.06, fair value HK$0.4080, a gap of about −87% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2410?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$3.06); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.4080). For TYK Medicines Inc the two are HK$2.65 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TYK Medicines Inc worth?
The market values TYK Medicines Inc at about HK$1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$3.06; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.4080 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2410?
Our models span a range for TYK Medicines Inc: cautious scenario HK$0.3060, base HK$0.4080, optimistic HK$0.6035 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price HK$3.06). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of TYK Medicines Inc (2410)?
Balance-sheet figures for TYK Medicines Inc (as of Oct 27, 2026): return on equity −80.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2410 from its 52-week high?
TYK Medicines Inc trades at HK$3.06, about 80% below its 52-week high of HK$15.32 and 14% above the low of HK$2.68 (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.4080 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TYK Medicines Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TYK Medicines Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price HK$3.06, calculated fair value HK$0.4080 (−87%), Quality Score 32/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2410 calculated?
We run TYK Medicines Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.4080, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. TYK Medicines Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TYK Medicines Inc (2410)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was HK$3.06. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.4080, about −87% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TYK Medicines Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.6035). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.3060 to HK$0.6035) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of TYK Medicines Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of TYK Medicines Inc (2410)?
The market capitalisation of TYK Medicines Inc is HK$1.1B (≈ $146M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of TYK Medicines Inc (2410)?
Earnings per share at TYK Medicines Inc are HK$−0.3000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of TYK Medicines Inc (2410)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TYK Medicines Inc is −80.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TYK Medicines Inc (2410)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TYK Medicines Inc is −41.7% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does TYK Medicines Inc (2410) generate?
The free cash flow of TYK Medicines Inc is −HK$255M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does TYK Medicines Inc (2410) hold?
TYK Medicines Inc holds more cash than debt, HK$215M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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