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Anhui Conch Material Tech Co (2560) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Anhui Conch Material Tech Co HK$2.18, price HK$1.33, upside +63.6%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Basic Materials · HK

AC Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Anhui Conch Material Tech Co

2560 · HK

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value HK$2.18 · Strongly undervalued (+63.6%)
!Quality 36/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +12.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!12.0% dividend yield · Watch coverage
✓Ranks above peers (10/14)
!Narrow moat 37/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$2.04 HK$1.07 Fair Value HK$2.18 Jan 2025 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

21‑month range HK$1.07 – HK$2.04 · fair‑value band HK$1.44 – HK$3.14 · the HK$1.33 price screens below the HK$2.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Anhui Conch Material Technology Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, trade, and sale of cement admixture, concrete admixture, and related intermediaries in Mainland China and Asia. The company offers polyether monomer, finished concrete admixtures, and polycarboxylic acid mother liquor products.

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Anhui Conch Material Technology Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, trade, and sale of cement admixture, concrete admixture, and related intermediaries in Mainland China and Asia. The company offers polyether monomer, finished concrete admixtures, and polycarboxylic acid mother liquor products. It also produces and sells grinding aids for quality intelligent monitoring system. Anhui Conch Material Technology Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Wuhu, China.

Stock analysis

Anhui Conch Material Tech Co (2560) currently trades at HK$1.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.18, implying the stock looks roughly 38.9% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$3.65 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$1.33 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.10, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$1.44 (bear) to HK$3.14 (bull), the price of HK$1.33 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Anhui Conch Material Tech Co reported revenue of 2.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound +10.0%/yr. Reported net income was 107M CNY in FY2025, compounding −4.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$771M (≈ $98.3M) · P/E ratio 6.4 · P/S ratio 0.30 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0900 · Dividend yield 12.0% · Net margin 4.7% · Return on equity 10.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at 64%, 2560 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$1.44 Fair Value HK$2.18 Bull HK$3.14
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$1.16 HK$1.46 HK$1.82 82
Growth DCF HK$1.16 HK$1.43 HK$1.73 80
Owner Earnings HK$0.8600 HK$1.06 HK$1.30 78
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$1.16 HK$1.46 HK$1.82 82
Owner Earnings HK$0.8600 HK$1.06 HK$1.30 78
5Y Revenue Exit HK$2.06 HK$3.24 HK$4.74 72
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.30 HK$3.68 HK$5.26 75
5Y P/E Exit HK$1.99 HK$3.12 HK$4.27 71
10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.58 HK$2.45 HK$3.58 66
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.77 HK$2.70 HK$3.91 68
10Y P/E Exit HK$1.60 HK$2.37 HK$3.28 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$1.46 HK$3.93 HK$5.14 65
Lynch FV HK$0.7700 HK$1.10 HK$1.43 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.7700 HK$1.10 HK$1.43 57
EPV HK$2.04 HK$2.26 HK$2.43 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$1.38 HK$2.32 HK$3.01 68
DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.38 HK$1.96 HK$2.46 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$2.74 HK$3.65 HK$4.56 63
P/S Multiple HK$2.74 HK$3.65 HK$4.56 58
P/B Multiple HK$2.74 HK$3.65 HK$4.56 55
EV/EBIT HK$3.37 HK$4.41 HK$5.44 66
EV/EBITDA HK$3.65 HK$4.77 HK$5.90 67
EV/Revenue HK$2.96 HK$4.11 HK$5.26 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.39 HK$1.86 HK$2.77 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$1.16 HK$1.43 HK$1.73 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$2.06 HK$3.23 HK$4.52 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$2.09 HK$2.18 HK$2.35 76
ROIC Compounder HK$2.04 HK$2.26 HK$2.43 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$2.20 HK$3.14 HK$4.09 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37

Profitability 36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 23
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 39
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 49
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 39
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 79
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 27
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 5
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 42
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 68/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−0.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−12.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)12.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 7%

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +25.3% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Materials · 251 stocks

Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +63.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 10.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets 4.0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 4.7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 7.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −3.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 12.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.21× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.4× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.48× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.29× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 18.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 2.2× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 4
PAST (return on equity)41 · sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)89 · sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 42

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Building Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
CRH plc CRH $85.04 $74.79 −12%
Holcim AG HOLN CHF 67.26 CHF 33.08 −51%
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc MLM $484.30 $207.85 −57%
UltraTech Cement Limited ULTRACEMCO ₹11,155 ₹4,719 −58%
Vulcan Materials Company VMC $245.00 $131.66 −46%
China Jushi Co 600176 ¥43.06 ¥28.26 −34%
Grasim Industries Limited GRASIM ₹3,191 ₹1,245 −61%
Amrize AG AMRZ $38.22 $35.08 −8%
James Hardie Industries plc JHX A$36.98 A$8.06 −78%
Ambuja Cements Limited AMBUJACEM ₹383.80 ₹194.48 −49%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Anhui Conch Material Tech Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2560

Frequently asked questions

Is Anhui Conch Material Tech Co (2560) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.18 versus a price of HK$1.33, about +64% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2560?
Our model-based fair value for Anhui Conch Material Tech Co is HK$2.18 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.33.
What is the quality score of 2560?
Anhui Conch Material Tech Co has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Anhui Conch Material Tech Co (2560)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$2.18 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.44, optimistic scenario HK$3.14. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Anhui Conch Material Tech Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$2.18, about +64% upside versus a price of HK$1.33 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.44, optimistic scenario HK$3.14. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Anhui Conch Material Tech Co (2560)?
Anhui Conch Material Tech Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Anhui Conch Material Tech Co pay a dividend?
Anhui Conch Material Tech Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 12.03% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Anhui Conch Material Tech Co (2560)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Anhui Conch Material Tech Co would have to grow free cash flow by +27.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.9 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2560 use?
Our models discount Anhui Conch Material Tech Co at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Anhui Conch Material Tech Co that is +27.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Anhui Conch Material Tech Co (2560) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Anhui Conch Material Tech Co grew +12.9 % a year. The price currently implies +27.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Anhui Conch Material Tech Co (2560) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Anhui Conch Material Tech Co (+27.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Anhui Conch Material Tech Co (2560)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.36 %: that much free cash flow Anhui Conch Material Tech Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Anhui Conch Material Tech Co (2560)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Anhui Conch Material Tech Co it is HK$2.18 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$1.33. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Anhui Conch Material Tech Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 2560 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.33, fair value HK$2.18, a gap of about +64% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2560?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.33); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$2.18). For Anhui Conch Material Tech Co the two are HK$0.8460 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Anhui Conch Material Tech Co worth?
The market values Anhui Conch Material Tech Co at about HK$771M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.33; our models calculate a fair value of HK$2.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2560?
Our models span a range for Anhui Conch Material Tech Co: cautious scenario HK$1.44, base HK$2.18, optimistic HK$3.14 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$1.33). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2560?
Anhui Conch Material Tech Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.4 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$2.18 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 2.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Anhui Conch Material Tech Co (2560)?
Balance-sheet figures for Anhui Conch Material Tech Co (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 10.2%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2560 from its 52-week high?
Anhui Conch Material Tech Co trades at HK$1.33, about 21% below its 52-week high of HK$1.68 and at the low of HK$1.33 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$2.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Anhui Conch Material Tech Co?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value CRH plc, Holcim AG, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc, UltraTech Cement Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Anhui Conch Material Tech Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$1.33, calculated fair value HK$2.18 (+64%), Quality Score 36/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2560 calculated?
We run Anhui Conch Material Tech Co through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$2.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Anhui Conch Material Tech Co currently trades 39 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Anhui Conch Material Tech Co (2560)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$1.33. Our model-based fair value is HK$2.18, about +64% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Anhui Conch Material Tech Co right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (36/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$1.44). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$1.44 to HK$3.14) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Anhui Conch Material Tech Co

How large is the market capitalisation of Anhui Conch Material Tech Co (2560)?
The market capitalisation of Anhui Conch Material Tech Co is HK$771M (≈ $98.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Anhui Conch Material Tech Co (2560)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Anhui Conch Material Tech Co is 0.30 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Anhui Conch Material Tech Co (2560)?
Earnings per share at Anhui Conch Material Tech Co are HK$0.0900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Anhui Conch Material Tech Co (2560)?
The dividend yield of Anhui Conch Material Tech Co is 12.0% (payout 178%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Anhui Conch Material Tech Co (2560)?
The net margin of Anhui Conch Material Tech Co is 4.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Anhui Conch Material Tech Co (2560)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Anhui Conch Material Tech Co is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Anhui Conch Material Tech Co (2560)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Anhui Conch Material Tech Co is 7.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Anhui Conch Material Tech Co (2560)?
The operating margin of Anhui Conch Material Tech Co is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Anhui Conch Material Tech Co (2560)?
Revenue at Anhui Conch Material Tech Co is growing −3.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Anhui Conch Material Tech Co (2560)?
Earnings per share at Anhui Conch Material Tech Co are growing −41.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Anhui Conch Material Tech Co (2560) carry?
The net debt of Anhui Conch Material Tech Co is 588M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 16.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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