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VISEN Pharmaceuticals (2561) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of VISEN Pharmaceuticals HK$6.35, price HK$18.72, upside -66.1%, quality 31 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · HK

VP Thin data Sep 27, 2026

VISEN Pharmaceuticals

2561 · HK

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value HK$6.35 · Strongly overvalued (−66.1%)
!Quality 31/100
!Weak Growth (revenue YoY −94.2 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/6)
!Narrow moat 0/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$68.80 HK$18.52 Fair Value HK$6.35 Mar 2025 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

18‑month range HK$18.52 – HK$68.80 · fair‑value band HK$4.19 – HK$7.93 · the HK$18.72 price screens above the HK$6.35 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

VISEN Pharmaceuticals, an investment holding company, engages in the development and commercialization of paradigm-shifting endocrine therapies in the Chinese Mainland. The company's lead product, Lonapegsomatropin, a once-weekly long-acting growth hormone replacement therapy for the treatment of pediatric growth hormone deficiency.

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VISEN Pharmaceuticals, an investment holding company, engages in the development and commercialization of paradigm-shifting endocrine therapies in the Chinese Mainland. The company's lead product, Lonapegsomatropin, a once-weekly long-acting growth hormone replacement therapy for the treatment of pediatric growth hormone deficiency. It also develops TransCon CNP (navepegritide), a long-acting prodrug of c-type natriuretic peptide for the treatment of achondroplasia, that is in phase 2 clinical trial; and Palopegteriparatide, a once-daily parathyroid hormone replacement therapy for the treatment of chronic hypoparathyroidism, which has completed phase 3 clinical trial. It has strategic collaboration agreements with Shanghai Pharmaceutical, XtalPi, Anke Bio, and the United Family Healthcare. VISEN Pharmaceuticals was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Suzhou, China.

Stock analysis

VISEN Pharmaceuticals (2561) currently trades at HK$18.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$6.35, 66.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 91/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: HK$4.19 (bear) to HK$7.93 (bull), the price of HK$18.72 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

VISEN Pharmaceuticals reported revenue of 161K CNY in FY2025 versus −2.3M CNY in FY2022. Reported net income was −247M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$2.8B (≈ $362M) · EPS (TTM) HK$−1.18 · Return on equity −50.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −40.7% · Operating margin 17,848% · Revenue (TTM) HK$136K · Revenue growth (YoY) −68.6% · Free cash flow −HK$450M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −66%, 2561 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$4.19 Fair Value HK$6.35 Bull HK$7.93
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) HK$3.92 HK$5.25 HK$7.83 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$3.92 HK$5.25 HK$7.83 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 31/100

Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 8

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 29
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 29
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 42
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 21
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 5
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 24
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

2561 screens overvalued: fair value 66% below the price. Compare with Merck KGaA →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 619 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −66.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −23.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −68.6% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.48× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Merck KGaA MRK €135.00 €108.94 −19%
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company TAK $18.90 $11.45 −39%
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited TEVA $39.19 $20.88 −47%
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA ₹1,852 ₹1,979 +7%
Galderma Group GALD CHF 163.00 CHF 110.32 −32%
Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276 ¥44.86 ¥49.35 +10%
Haleon plc HLN $9.26 $8.49 −8%
Sandoz Group SDZ CHF 71.16 CHF 40.32 −43%
Zoetis Inc ZTS $70.30 $110.50 +57%
Divi's Laboratories Limited DIVISLAB ₹9,620 ₹1,871 −81%

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VISEN Pharmaceuticals · Fair Value
HK$6.35 −66%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "VISEN Pharmaceuticals Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2561

Frequently asked questions

Is VISEN Pharmaceuticals (2561) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$6.35 versus a price of HK$18.72, about −66% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2561?
Our model-based fair value for VISEN Pharmaceuticals is HK$6.35 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$18.72.
What is the quality score of 2561?
VISEN Pharmaceuticals has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for VISEN Pharmaceuticals (2561)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$6.35 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$4.19, optimistic scenario HK$7.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the VISEN Pharmaceuticals stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$6.35, about −66% upside versus a price of HK$18.72 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$4.19, optimistic scenario HK$7.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of VISEN Pharmaceuticals (2561)?
VISEN Pharmaceuticals reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$136K (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of VISEN Pharmaceuticals (2561)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For VISEN Pharmaceuticals it is HK$6.35 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$18.72. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is VISEN Pharmaceuticals stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 2561 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$18.72, fair value HK$6.35, a gap of about −66% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2561?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$18.72); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$6.35). For VISEN Pharmaceuticals the two are HK$12.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is VISEN Pharmaceuticals worth?
The market values VISEN Pharmaceuticals at about HK$2.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$18.72; our models calculate a fair value of HK$6.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2561?
Our models span a range for VISEN Pharmaceuticals: cautious scenario HK$4.19, base HK$6.35, optimistic HK$7.93 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$18.72). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of VISEN Pharmaceuticals (2561)?
Balance-sheet figures for VISEN Pharmaceuticals (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −50.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2561 from its 52-week high?
VISEN Pharmaceuticals trades at HK$18.72, about 58% below its 52-week high of HK$44.88 and 1% above the low of HK$18.52 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$6.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to VISEN Pharmaceuticals?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is VISEN Pharmaceuticals stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$18.72, calculated fair value HK$6.35 (−66%), Quality Score 31/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2561 calculated?
We run VISEN Pharmaceuticals through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$6.35, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. VISEN Pharmaceuticals itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of VISEN Pharmaceuticals (2561)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$18.72. Our model-based fair value is HK$6.35, about −66% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with VISEN Pharmaceuticals right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$7.93). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$4.19 to HK$7.93) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of VISEN Pharmaceuticals

How large is the market capitalisation of VISEN Pharmaceuticals (2561)?
The market capitalisation of VISEN Pharmaceuticals is HK$2.8B (≈ $362M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of VISEN Pharmaceuticals (2561)?
Earnings per share at VISEN Pharmaceuticals are HK$−1.18. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of VISEN Pharmaceuticals (2561)?
The return on equity (ROE) of VISEN Pharmaceuticals is −50.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of VISEN Pharmaceuticals (2561)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of VISEN Pharmaceuticals is −40.7% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of VISEN Pharmaceuticals (2561)?
The operating margin of VISEN Pharmaceuticals is 17,848% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at VISEN Pharmaceuticals (2561)?
Revenue at VISEN Pharmaceuticals is growing −68.6% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does VISEN Pharmaceuticals (2561) generate?
The free cash flow of VISEN Pharmaceuticals is −HK$450M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does VISEN Pharmaceuticals (2561) hold?
VISEN Pharmaceuticals holds more cash than debt, HK$456M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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