VISEN Pharmaceuticals (2561) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · HK · Market cap HK$2.8B

Below-average quality, and screening another 74% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$6.46). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
• A fairly wide model range (HK$3.41 to HK$6.46) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (17 months)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

17‑month range HK$18.90 – HK$68.80 · fair‑value band HK$3.41 – HK$6.46 · the HK$20.00 price screens above the HK$5.17 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

VISEN Pharmaceuticals (2561) currently trades at HK$20.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$5.17, implying the stock looks roughly 74.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at HK$136K. Revenue declined 68.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -50.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$456M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$3.41 (bear case) to HK$6.46 (bull case); at HK$20.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 62% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at -74%, 2561 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

VISEN Pharmaceuticals, an investment holding company, engages in the development and commercialization of paradigm-shifting endocrine therapies in the Chinese Mainland. The company's lead product, Lonapegsomatropin, a once-weekly long-acting growth hormone replacement therapy for the treatment of pediatric growth hormone deficiency.

Full company description

VISEN Pharmaceuticals, an investment holding company, engages in the development and commercialization of paradigm-shifting endocrine therapies in the Chinese Mainland. The company's lead product, Lonapegsomatropin, a once-weekly long-acting growth hormone replacement therapy for the treatment of pediatric growth hormone deficiency. It also develops TransCon CNP (navepegritide), a long-acting prodrug of c-type natriuretic peptide for the treatment of achondroplasia, that is in phase 2 clinical trial; and Palopegteriparatide, a once-daily parathyroid hormone replacement therapy for the treatment of chronic hypoparathyroidism, which has completed phase 3 clinical trial. It has strategic collaboration agreements with Shanghai Pharmaceutical, XtalPi, Anke Bio, and the United Family Healthcare. VISEN Pharmaceuticals was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Suzhou, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

VISEN Pharmaceuticals reported revenue of HK$161K in FY2025 versus −HK$2.3M in FY2022. Reported net income was −HK$247M in FY2025.

2561 screens 74% overvalued. Compare with Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co →

Peer Group

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 622 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.