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China Pacific Insurance (2601) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of China Pacific Insurance HK$54.95, price HK$28.14, upside +95.3%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · HK · Home China · ISIN CNE1000009Q7

CP Broad data Sep 27, 2026

China Pacific Insurance

2601 · HK

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value HK$54.95 · Strongly undervalued (+95.3%)
✓Quality 61/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −2.1 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 16.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓6.4% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Ranks above peers (13/15)
!Moderate moat 56/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$38.35 HK$10.03 Fair Value HK$54.95 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$10.03 – HK$38.35 · fair‑value band HK$42.14 – HK$82.61 · the HK$28.14 price screens below the HK$54.95 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance products to in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Life and Health Insurance, Property and Casualty Insurance, Asset Management, and Other Business segments.

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China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance products to in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Life and Health Insurance, Property and Casualty Insurance, Asset Management, and Other Business segments. The company offers life, health, automobile, liability, agricultural, property and casualty, commercial property, and accident insurance products; pension and annuity insurance products; investments with insurance funds, etc.; and reinsurance products. It also provides real estate and property management, consulting, medical and health consulting, insurance agency, fund management, seniors and disabled care, elderly, nursing, real estate development and operation, technical and seniors care consulting, technical, cloud computing, bid data, business, hospital management, and medical services; and senior living property investment, construction, and management services. In addition, the company offers investment management, pension fund and insurance asset management, private equity investment fund management, and non-residential real estate leasing services. China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co., Ltd. was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

China Pacific Insurance (2601) currently trades at HK$28.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$54.95, implying the stock looks roughly 48.8% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of HK$53.11 per share, and 5 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$28.14 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$24.60, and 1 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: HK$42.14 (bear) to HK$82.61 (bull), the price of HK$28.14 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

China Pacific Insurance reported revenue of 376B CNY in FY2025 versus 436B CNY in FY2021, a compound −3.6%/yr. Reported net income was 52.1B CNY in FY2025, compounding +18.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$271B (≈ $34.5B) · P/E ratio 4.4 · P/S ratio 0.60 · EPS (TTM) HK$5.99 · Dividend yield 6.4% · Net margin 13.8% · Return on equity 17.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at 95%, 2601 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$42.14 Fair Value HK$54.95 Bull HK$82.61
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$3.14 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$40.90 HK$53.11 HK$85.88 72
Gordon GGM HK$17.04 HK$35.42 HK$56.19 64
DDM Multi-Stage HK$17.04 HK$29.87 HK$37.18 64
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$17.04 HK$35.42 HK$56.19 64
DDM Multi-Stage HK$17.04 HK$29.87 HK$37.18 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$61.72 HK$82.29 HK$102.87 63
P/B Multiple HK$38.55 HK$51.40 HK$64.25 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$18.36 HK$24.60 HK$36.71 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$40.90 HK$53.11 HK$85.88 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 47
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 8
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 62
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 82
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 19
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.4% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+20.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14.2% vs 15.1%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 17%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Life · 89 stocks

Beats the industry median on 13/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside +95.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 17.4% · Above median
Return on assets 1.4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 16.3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 16.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −3.3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.08× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 4.4× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.76× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.70× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 0.9× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 2.5× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 0.66× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 1
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 40
PAST (return on equity)69 · sector 46
HEALTH (low debt)96 · sector 87
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 56

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Life stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Life Insurance Company 601628 ¥37.43 ¥49.98 +34%
Ping An Insurance (Group) Company 601318 ¥53.25 ¥67.19 +26%
AIA Group 1299 HK$73.75 HK$41.69 −43%
Manulife Financial Corporation MFC $43.86 $27.55 −37%
MetLife, Inc MET $97.70 $54.39 −44%
Great-West Lifeco Inc GWO C$93.34 C$42.07 −55%
Aflac Incorporated AFL $113.72 $67.02 −41%
Life Insurance Corporation LICI ₹409.05 ₹299.19 −27%
Cathay Financial Holding 2882 110.50 TWD 71.47 TWD −35%
Power Corporation POW C$94.28 C$32.85 −65%

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China Pacific Insurance · Fair Value
HK$54.95 +49%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Pacific Insurance Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2601

Frequently asked questions

Is China Pacific Insurance (2601) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$54.95 versus a price of HK$28.14, about +95% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2601?
Our model-based fair value for China Pacific Insurance is HK$54.95 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$28.14.
What is the quality score of 2601?
China Pacific Insurance has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Pacific Insurance (2601)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$54.95 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$42.14, optimistic scenario HK$82.61. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Pacific Insurance stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$54.95, about +95% upside versus a price of HK$28.14 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$42.14, optimistic scenario HK$82.61. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Pacific Insurance (2601)?
China Pacific Insurance reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 331B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does China Pacific Insurance pay a dividend?
China Pacific Insurance currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.42% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Pacific Insurance (2601)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Pacific Insurance it is HK$54.95 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$28.14. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Pacific Insurance stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 2601 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$28.14, fair value HK$54.95, a gap of about +95% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2601?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$28.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$54.95). For China Pacific Insurance the two are HK$26.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Pacific Insurance worth?
The market values China Pacific Insurance at about HK$271B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$28.14; our models calculate a fair value of HK$54.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2601?
Our models span a range for China Pacific Insurance: cautious scenario HK$42.14, base HK$54.95, optimistic HK$82.61 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$28.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2601?
China Pacific Insurance trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.4 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$54.95 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 0.8, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 2.5.
What is the PEG ratio of 2601?
The PEG ratio of China Pacific Insurance is 0.66 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Pacific Insurance (2601)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Pacific Insurance (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 17.4%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2601 from its 52-week high?
China Pacific Insurance trades at HK$28.14, about 27% below its 52-week high of HK$38.35 and 5% above the low of HK$26.88 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$54.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Pacific Insurance?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Life Insurance Company, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, AIA Group, Manulife Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Pacific Insurance stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$28.14, calculated fair value HK$54.95 (+95%), Quality Score 61/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2601 calculated?
We run China Pacific Insurance through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$54.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. China Pacific Insurance currently trades 49 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Pacific Insurance (2601)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$28.14. Our model-based fair value is HK$54.95, about +95% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Pacific Insurance right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$42.14). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$42.14 to HK$82.61) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of China Pacific Insurance (2601) come from?
Earnings per share at China Pacific Insurance grew +12.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.0 %, EBIT margin +6.9 %, tax rate +1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of China Pacific Insurance

How large is the market capitalisation of China Pacific Insurance (2601)?
The market capitalisation of China Pacific Insurance is HK$271B (≈ $34.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Pacific Insurance (2601)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Pacific Insurance is 0.60 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Pacific Insurance (2601)?
Earnings per share at China Pacific Insurance are HK$5.99 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Pacific Insurance (2601)?
The dividend yield of China Pacific Insurance is 6.4% (payout 30.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Pacific Insurance (2601)?
The net margin of China Pacific Insurance is 13.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Pacific Insurance (2601)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Pacific Insurance is 17.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Pacific Insurance (2601)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Pacific Insurance is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Pacific Insurance (2601)?
The operating margin of China Pacific Insurance is 16.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Pacific Insurance (2601)?
Revenue at China Pacific Insurance is growing −3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Pacific Insurance (2601)?
Earnings per share at China Pacific Insurance are growing −6.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Pacific Insurance (2601) generate?
The free cash flow of China Pacific Insurance is 258B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Pacific Insurance (2601) carry?
The net debt of China Pacific Insurance is 166B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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