Union Bank of Taiwan (2838A) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · TW · Market cap 31.5B TWD
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price −0.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 43% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (36.86 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 45.54 TWD – 55.10 TWD · fair‑value band 22.12 TWD – 36.86 TWD · the 51.90 TWD price screens above the 29.49 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
Analysis
Union Bank of Taiwan (2838A) currently trades at 51.90 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 29.49 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 43.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Union Bank of Taiwan generated revenue of 20.3B TWD at a net margin of 31.5%. Revenue grew 9.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.6%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 48.8. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 22.12 TWD (bear case) to 36.86 TWD (bull case); at 51.90 TWD, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at -43%, 2838A screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (29.49 TWD) versus Dividend Discount (10.87 TWD). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Union Bank of Taiwan provides various banking products and services. It operates through Corporate Banking Unit, Consumer Banking Unit, Wealth Management and Trust Unit, Investing Unit, and Leasing Unit segments.
Full company description
Union Bank of Taiwan provides various banking products and services. It operates through Corporate Banking Unit, Consumer Banking Unit, Wealth Management and Trust Unit, Investing Unit, and Leasing Unit segments. The company accepts deposit products, loans, remittances, acceptances, issuance of guarantees and letters of credit, short-term bills transactions, foreign exchange transactions, savings, and trusts. It also provides corporate loans, discount bills and notes, domestic letters of credit and conduct accounts receivable factoring, mortgages, auto loans, personal loans, and other consumer credit; credit card services; and wealth management, trust, custodian business, safe-deposit box rental, and certification services for marketable securities. In addition, the company engages in handling of exports, imports, foreign remittances, foreign currency loans, and guarantees; trades in marketable securities and futures on behalf of customers; and acts as collecting and paying agent for public facilities fees, taxes, and remittances, as well as operates as a property insurance agency. Further, the company involved in the retail and distribution of hardware and software products; development of system programs; system development outsourcing; website designing; e-commerce activities; car rental; import and export financing; securities investment trust; and installment, leasing, and accounts receivable factoring businesses. Additionally, it engages in sale, purchase, and leasing of real estate; venture capital; general business investment; installment sale and purchase; investment leasing business; general and investment management consulting; investment and management of private equity fund; and power generation, transmission, distribution, and energy technology service business; and equipment leasing activities. Union Bank of Taiwan was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Taipei, Taiwan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Union Bank of Taiwan reported revenue of 20.2B TWD in FY2025 versus 16.9B TWD in FY2021, a compound +4.6%/yr. Reported net income was 6.1B TWD in FY2025, compounding +8.1%/yr from FY2021.
2838A screens 43% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1083 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,175 IDR | 6,087 IDR | -1% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 184,400 KRW | 213,797 KRW | +16% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 2,970 IDR | 4,891 IDR | +65% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,310 IDR | 7,841 IDR | +82% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 10,240 ARS | +100% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 107,900 KRW | 137,259 KRW | +27% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 136,800 KRW | 193,969 KRW | +42% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Banco de Chile, CHILE | 193.10 CLP | 152.55 CLP | -21% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,400 VND | 84,201 VND | +42% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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