China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (2877) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 21, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd stock HK$22.08, price HK$7.36, upside +200.0%, quality 68 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$3.67 – HK$9.80 · fair‑value band HK$18.29 – HK$25.62 · the HK$7.36 price screens below the HK$22.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 20, 2026.
Follow China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and trade of Chinese pharmaceutical products in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong.
Show moreShow less
The company offers Chinese medicines in the form of injection, soft capsules, and granules; and other dosage forms, including pills and tablets; and traditional Chinese medicine granules in various therapeutic areas, including respiratory system disease, nervous system, digestive system disease, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular, orthopedics, pediatrics, chronic illnesses, and other areas, as well as medication for strengthening the body.
It is also involved in the trading of agricultural products. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Shijiazhuang, China. China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Limited operates as a subsidiary of Forway Investment Limited.
Stock analysis
China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (2877) currently trades at HK$7.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$22.08, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$28.62 per share, and 22 of the 25 models we run sit above the HK$7.36 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$6.13, and 3 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$18.29 (bear) to HK$25.62 (bull), the price of HK$7.36 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd reported revenue of 3.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound −0.7%/yr. Reported net income was 950M CNY in FY2025, compounding +14.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$5.6B (≈ $709M) Small · P/E ratio 5.7 · P/S ratio 1.72 · Dividend yield 6.4% · Net margin 30.3% · Return on equity 12.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.2% · Operating margin 21.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 66 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 200%, 2877 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$18.29Fair Value HK$22.08BullHK$25.62
Price HK$7.36 · Upside +200.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−17.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.3% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+20.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14.3% vs 4.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 22%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
Compare China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 576 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.2% · Above median
Return on assets8.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)30.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)21.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−12.3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)6.4% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2877
Frequently asked questions
Is China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (2877) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$22.08 versus a price of HK$7.36, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2877?
Our model-based fair value for China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd is HK$22.08 (as of Oct 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$7.36.
What is the quality score of 2877?
China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (2877)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$22.08 (as of Oct 20, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$18.29, optimistic scenario HK$25.62. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$22.08, about +200% upside versus a price of HK$7.36 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$18.29, optimistic scenario HK$25.62. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (2877)?
China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 20, 2026).
Does China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd pay a dividend?
China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 6.37% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 20, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (2877)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.4 % per year. As of Oct 20, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2877 use?
Our models discount China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.72, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (2877) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd grew +3.4 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (2877) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (2877)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 20.61 %: that much free cash flow China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (2877)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd it is HK$22.08 per share (as of Oct 20, 2026), against a price of HK$7.36. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 2877 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$7.36, fair value HK$22.08, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2877?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$7.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$22.08). For China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd the two are HK$14.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd worth?
The market values China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd at about HK$5.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 20, 2026). Per share that is HK$7.36; our models calculate a fair value of HK$22.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2877?
Our models span a range for China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$18.29, base HK$22.08, optimistic HK$25.62 per share (as of Oct 20, 2026, price HK$7.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2877?
China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.7 (as of Oct 20, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$22.08 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 0.6, P/S 1.5.
What is the PEG ratio of 2877?
The PEG ratio of China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd is 0.28 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 20, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (2877)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (as of Oct 20, 2026): return on equity 12.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2877 from its 52-week high?
China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd trades at HK$7.36, about 25% below its 52-week high of HK$9.80 and 2% above the low of HK$7.24 (as of Oct 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$22.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Galderma Group, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 20, 2026: price HK$7.36, calculated fair value HK$22.08 (+200%), Quality Score 68/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2877 calculated?
We run China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$22.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.6 % above its aggregate fair value. China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd currently trades 67 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (2877)?
The closing price on Oct 21, 2026 was HK$7.36. Our model-based fair value is HK$22.08, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$18.29). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (68/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (2877) come from?
Earnings per share at China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd grew +5.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.0 %, EBIT margin −3.4 %, tax rate −1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (2877)?
The market capitalisation of China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd is HK$5.6B (≈ $709M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (2877)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd is 1.72 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (2877)?
The dividend yield of China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd is 6.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (2877)?
The net margin of China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd is 30.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (2877)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd is 12.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (2877)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd is 8.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (2877)?
The operating margin of China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd is 21.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (2877)?
Revenue at China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd is growing −12.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (2877)?
Earnings per share at China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd are growing +58.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (2877) hold?
China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd holds more cash than debt, 6.9B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 28,000+ stock screener.
Thin data
Oct 20, 2026