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China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (2877) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · HK · Market cap HK$5.5B (≈ $704M) · ISIN KYG2110P1000

CS China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd 2877 · HK
PriceHK$8.52
Fair ValueHK$25.31
Upside+197.1%
Quality68/100
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Strengths

✓Trades 66% below our fair value of HK$25.31
✓Highly profitable · 30.3% net margin
✓generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (12/13)

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +3.4 %/yr)
!Moderate moat 63/100
Weak Growth (revenue 5y +3.4 %/yr)
Highly profitable · 30.3% net margin
generates free cash flow
6.37% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (12/13)
Moderate moat 63/100
Evidence: High Range HK$21.25 – HK$29.36 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 15 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$25.29 to HK$25.31 (+0.1%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price +1.4% over the past month.

A solid business, trading 66% below our fair value.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

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What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$21.25). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (68/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$9.80 HK$3.67 Fair Value HK$25.31 Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$3.67 – HK$9.80 · fair‑value band HK$21.25 – HK$29.36 · the HK$8.52 price screens below the HK$25.31 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (2877) currently trades at HK$8.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$25.31, implying the stock looks roughly 197.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd generated revenue of HK$3.1B at a net margin of 30.3%. Revenue declined 12.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$6.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$21.25 (bear case) to HK$29.36 (bull case); at HK$8.52, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at 197%, 2877 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$9.69 HK$11.17 HK$19.80 76
Growth DCF HK$23.04 HK$28.26 HK$35.14 72
Gordon GGM HK$4.13 HK$7.35 HK$11.36 70
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$22.73 HK$28.43 HK$36.30 38
Owner Earnings HK$20.68 HK$25.49 HK$32.14 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$19.29 HK$23.57 HK$28.77 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$20.20 HK$25.20 HK$30.75 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$25.85 HK$35.32 HK$44.83 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$20.27 HK$24.30 HK$29.21 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$21.05 HK$25.38 HK$30.63 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$24.51 HK$32.09 HK$40.72 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$8.55 HK$21.10 HK$27.33 54
PEG = 1.0 HK$3.81 HK$5.45 HK$7.08 46
EPV HK$13.89 HK$14.58 HK$15.17 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$4.13 HK$7.35 HK$11.36 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$4.13 HK$6.12 HK$8.19 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$20.75 HK$27.67 HK$34.58 63
P/S Multiple HK$10.90 HK$14.53 HK$18.16 58
P/B Multiple HK$16.03 HK$21.38 HK$26.72 55
EV/EBIT HK$21.03 HK$24.87 HK$28.71 53
EV/EBITDA HK$19.99 HK$23.48 HK$26.96 54
EV/Revenue HK$17.74 HK$21.26 HK$24.78 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$5.34 HK$7.15 HK$10.68 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$23.04 HK$28.26 HK$35.14 72
Rev-Margin DCF HK$19.29 HK$23.75 HK$28.64 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$9.69 HK$11.17 HK$19.80 76
ROIC Compounder HK$14.04 HK$14.93 HK$15.83 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$15.87 HK$22.68 HK$29.48 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$25.38) versus Dividend Discount (HK$6.12). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 5.0 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 1.53 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.8100 price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.0
Dividend yield 6.4% payout 67.0%
Net margin 30.3% FY2025
Return on equity 12.2% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 8.2% avg 5y
Operating margin 21.0% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$3.1B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) -12.3% 3y avg -7.4%
EPS growth (YoY) +58.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$974M FY2025
Net cash HK$6.9B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 68/100

Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53

Profitability 52
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 21
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 82
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 63
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 79
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 45
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and trade of Chinese pharmaceutical products in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong.

Full company description

China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and trade of Chinese pharmaceutical products in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. The company offers Chinese medicines in the form of injection, soft capsules, and granules; and other dosage forms, including pills and tablets; and traditional Chinese medicine granules in various therapeutic areas, including respiratory system disease, nervous system, digestive system disease, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular, orthopedics, pediatrics, chronic illnesses, and other areas, as well as medication for strengthening the body. It is also involved in the trading of agricultural products. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Shijiazhuang, China. China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Limited operates as a subsidiary of Forway Investment Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd reported revenue of ¥3.1B in FY2025 versus ¥3.2B in FY2021, a compound −0.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥950M in FY2025, compounding +14.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$3.1B
Latest YoY
−17.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−7.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (22Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.8%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+20.7% (14.3 + 6.4)
Revenue −0.7%/yr
FY21 ¥3.2B
FY22 ¥4.0B
FY23 ¥4.5B
FY24 ¥3.8B
FY25 ¥3.1B
Net income +14.3%/yr
FY21 ¥557M
FY22 ¥723M
FY23 ¥970M
FY24 ¥840M
FY25 ¥950M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +5.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share +8.0 pp

of which total revenue +6.9 pp · buybacks/dilution +1.1 pp

EBIT margin −3.4 pp
Tax rate −1.0 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +1.5 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd · Fair Value
HK$25.31 +197%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2877

Peer Group

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 638 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +197% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 12% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 30% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 21% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -12% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.5% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 5.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.68× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.76× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.7× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.28× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 4
FUTURE0 · sector 21
PAST49 · sector 23
HEALTH0 · sector 97
DIVIDEND100 · sector 29

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Merck KGaA MRK €140.25 €106.48 -24%
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company TAK $18.03 $11.11 -38%
Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276 ¥53.76 ¥25.94 -52%
Galderma Group GALD CHF 178.55 CHF 55.07 -69%
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA ₹1,944 ₹989.50 -49%
Haleon plc HLN $9.80 $7.62 -22%
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited TEVA $37.92 $15.33 -60%
Sandoz Group SDZ CHF 70.66 CHF 39.21 -45%
Zoetis Inc ZTS $77.52 $104.88 +35%
Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group 3692 HK$33.50 HK$16.14 -52%

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (2877) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$25.31 versus a price of HK$8.52, about +197% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2877?
Our model-based fair value for China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd is HK$25.31 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$8.52.
What is the quality score of 2877?
China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (2877)?
China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$3.1B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2877?
The net profit margin of China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd is about 30.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 30.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd pay a dividend?
China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.37% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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