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China Development Financial Holding Corp (2883) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what China Development Financial Holding Corp is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · TW · ISIN TW0002883006

CD Broad data Sep 18, 2026

China Development Financial Holding Corp

2883 · TW

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value 18.77 TWD · Strongly overvalued (−54%)
!Quality 36/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +7.5 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 13.1% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·2.47% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
!Moderate moat 63/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

40.45 TWD 10.01 TWD Fair Value 18.77 TWD Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 10.01 TWD – 40.45 TWD · fair‑value band 17.00 TWD – 29.18 TWD · the 40.45 TWD price screens above the 18.77 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

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Company profile

KGI Financial Holding Co., Ltd. operates as a financial company in Taiwan and internationally.

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KGI Financial Holding Co., Ltd. operates as a financial company in Taiwan and internationally. The company offers personal financial services, such as deposits, credit cards, wealth management, and fund scheduling; upstream, midstream and downstream supplier services; and cross-border trade businesses, short-term financing with supply chain cash flow, sustainable and green energy project financing, and asset-backed loan or under 5 years mid-term syndicated loan for unlisted or listed companies. It also provides corporate strategic services, including credits, foreign exchange hedging, cash management, and trade financing; currency, foreign exchange, interest rate, commodity, equity security of spot market, and derivative financial product trading; and investment strategy and strategic advisory services. In addition, the company offers insurance products comprising life, group, and accident, as well as investment-linked personal life, health, injury coverage, variable annuities, travel safety, and universal insurance; and passive fund or exchange traded fund, public active fund, private placement active fund, and mandate business services. Further, it is involved in investment in securities, real estate, overseas markets, loans, and other foreign investments; and retail brokerage and wealth management, investment banking, global markets business, derivatives business, FINI equity and sales, registry and transfer agency service, and proprietary trading business. The company was formerly known as China Development Financial Holding Corporation and changed its name to KGI Financial Holding Co., Ltd. in August 2024. KGI Financial Holding Co., Ltd. was founded in 1959 and is based in Taipei, Taiwan.

Stock analysis

China Development Financial Holding Corp (2883) currently trades at 40.45 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 18.77 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 115.5% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 23.02 TWD per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the 40.45 TWD price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 12.92 TWD, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: 17.00 TWD (bear) to 29.18 TWD (bull), the price of 40.45 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

China Development Financial Holding Corp reported revenue of 323B TWD in FY2025 versus 184B TWD in FY2021, a compound +15.2%/yr. Reported net income was 30.1B TWD in FY2025, compounding −3.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 699B TWD (≈ $22.0B) · P/E ratio 23.2 · P/S ratio 2.16 · EPS (TTM) 1.74 TWD · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 9.3% · Return on equity 14.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades near its 52-week high and 176% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at −54%, 2883 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 17.00 TWD Fair Value 18.77 TWD Bull 29.18 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.5373 TWD per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income 16.91 TWD 18.62 TWD 28.04 TWD 73
DDM Multi-Stage 8.41 TWD 15.05 TWD 19.14 TWD 64
Gordon GGM 8.41 TWD 18.37 TWD 30.91 TWD 63
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 8.41 TWD 18.37 TWD 30.91 TWD 63
DDM Multi-Stage 8.41 TWD 15.05 TWD 19.14 TWD 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple 17.26 TWD 23.02 TWD 28.77 TWD 63
P/B Multiple 20.25 TWD 27.00 TWD 33.75 TWD 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 9.64 TWD 12.92 TWD 19.29 TWD 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income 16.91 TWD 18.62 TWD 28.04 TWD 73

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

Of which business quality 28 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 93

Profitability 25
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 7
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 64
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 79
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 98
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 63
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+329.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+48.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ −32.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−35.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15% vs 12%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.100% → 10%
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 54% above its own trend.

2883 screens 116% overvalued. Compare with China Life Insurance Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Life · 95 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −34% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 14% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 13% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 37% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 151% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.27× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 23.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.58× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.41× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 3.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG 24.76× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 16
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 43
PAST (return on equity)57 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)87 · sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)49 · sector 56

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Life stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Life Insurance Company 601628 ¥37.25 ¥49.98 +34%
Ping An Insurance (Group) Company 601318 ¥53.51 ¥68.44 +28%
AIA Group 1299 HK$77.35 HK$33.58 −57%
Manulife Financial Corporation MFC C$62.06 C$38.80 −37%
Aflac Incorporated AFL $117.55 $67.96 −42%
MetLife, Inc MET $97.23 $53.26 −45%
Great-West Lifeco Inc GWO C$92.94 C$41.81 −55%
Life Insurance Corporation LICI ₹400.00 ₹392.93 −2%
China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co 601601 ¥32.02 ¥51.59 +61%
Samsung Life Insurance Co 032830 283,500 KRW 191,293 KRW −33%

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China Development Financial Holding Corp · Fair Value
18.77 TWD −116%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Development Financial Holding Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2883

Frequently asked questions

Is China Development Financial Holding Corp (2883) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 18.77 TWD versus a price of 40.45 TWD, about −54% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2883?
Our model-based fair value for China Development Financial Holding Corp is 18.77 TWD (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 40.45 TWD.
What is the quality score of 2883?
China Development Financial Holding Corp has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Development Financial Holding Corp (2883)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 18.77 TWD (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 17.00 TWD, optimistic scenario 29.18 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Development Financial Holding Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 18.77 TWD, about −54% upside versus a price of 40.45 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 17.00 TWD, optimistic scenario 29.18 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Development Financial Holding Corp (2883)?
China Development Financial Holding Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 367B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does China Development Financial Holding Corp pay a dividend?
China Development Financial Holding Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.47% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Development Financial Holding Corp (2883)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Development Financial Holding Corp it is 18.77 TWD per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of 40.45 TWD. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Development Financial Holding Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, 2883 trades above its calculated fair value: price 40.45 TWD, fair value 18.77 TWD, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2883?
No. The price is what the market pays today (40.45 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (18.77 TWD). For China Development Financial Holding Corp the two are 21.68 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Development Financial Holding Corp worth?
The market values China Development Financial Holding Corp at about 699B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is 40.45 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 18.77 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2883?
Our models span a range for China Development Financial Holding Corp: cautious scenario 17.00 TWD, base 18.77 TWD, optimistic 29.18 TWD per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price 40.45 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2883?
China Development Financial Holding Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.2 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 18.77 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 24.8, P/B 1.6, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 3.9.
What is the PEG ratio of 2883?
The PEG ratio of China Development Financial Holding Corp is 24.76 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Development Financial Holding Corp (2883)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Development Financial Holding Corp (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 14.3%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2883 from its 52-week high?
China Development Financial Holding Corp trades at 40.45 TWD, about 42% below its 52-week high of 28.50 TWD and 176% above the low of 14.65 TWD (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 18.77 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Development Financial Holding Corp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Life Insurance Company, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, AIA Group, Manulife Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Development Financial Holding Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price 40.45 TWD, calculated fair value 18.77 TWD (−54%), Quality Score 36/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2883 calculated?
We run China Development Financial Holding Corp through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 18.77 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. China Development Financial Holding Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Development Financial Holding Corp (2883)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was 40.45 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 18.77 TWD, about −54% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Development Financial Holding Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (29.18 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of China Development Financial Holding Corp (2883) come from?
Earnings per share at China Development Financial Holding Corp grew +12.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +19.1 %, EBIT margin −9.6 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of China Development Financial Holding Corp

How large is the market capitalisation of China Development Financial Holding Corp (2883)?
The market capitalisation of China Development Financial Holding Corp is 699B TWD (≈ $22.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Development Financial Holding Corp (2883)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Development Financial Holding Corp is 2.16 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Development Financial Holding Corp (2883)?
Earnings per share at China Development Financial Holding Corp are 1.74 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Development Financial Holding Corp (2883)?
The dividend yield of China Development Financial Holding Corp is 2.5% (payout 57.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Development Financial Holding Corp (2883)?
The net margin of China Development Financial Holding Corp is 9.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Development Financial Holding Corp (2883)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Development Financial Holding Corp is 14.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Development Financial Holding Corp (2883)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Development Financial Holding Corp is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Development Financial Holding Corp (2883)?
The operating margin of China Development Financial Holding Corp is 36.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Development Financial Holding Corp (2883)?
Revenue at China Development Financial Holding Corp is growing +151% versus a year earlier (3y avg +48.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Development Financial Holding Corp (2883)?
Earnings per share at China Development Financial Holding Corp are growing +150% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Development Financial Holding Corp (2883) generate?
The free cash flow of China Development Financial Holding Corp is −54.1B TWD (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Development Financial Holding Corp (2883) carry?
The net debt of China Development Financial Holding Corp is 337B TWD (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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