Shanghai Kaibao Pharmaceutical CO.,Ltd (300039) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · CN · Market cap 4.7B CNY

A solid business, but screening 25% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥5.71). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥3.45 – ¥11.95 · fair‑value band ¥3.31 – ¥5.71 · the ¥5.96 price screens above the ¥4.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 7, 2026.

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Analysis

Shanghai Kaibao Pharmaceutical CO.,Ltd (300039) currently trades at ¥5.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥4.45, implying the stock looks roughly 25.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Shanghai Kaibao Pharmaceutical CO.,Ltd generated revenue of 1.0B CNY at a net margin of 25.0%. Revenue declined 29.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 588M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 7, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥3.31 (bear case) to ¥5.71 (bull case); at ¥5.96, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at -25%, 300039 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥4.59) versus Dividend Discount (¥1.60). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Shanghai Kaibao Pharmaceutical CO.,Ltd engages in the research, development, production, and sale of modern traditional Chinese medicines primarily in China.

Full company description

Shanghai Kaibao Pharmaceutical CO.,Ltd engages in the research, development, production, and sale of modern traditional Chinese medicines primarily in China. The company offers heat-clearing and detoxifying products, such as Tanreqing Injection for wind-heat in the lungs with phlegm-heat obstructing the lungs, early-stage pneumonia, acute bronchitis, acute exacerbations of chronic bronchitis, and respiratory infections; and Phlegm-Heat Clearing Capsules to clear heat, resolve phlegm, and detoxifying. It also provides liver-protecting products, including Thiopronine for injection and Thiopronine enteric-coated tablets. In addition, the company provides Astragalus and Ginseng Capsules for the treatment of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. Further, it offers diclofenac sodium enteric-coated tablets; artificial bezoar metronidazole capsules; Mai'an granules; Loquat cough granules that clears the lungs, relieves cough, and reduces phlegm; compound danshen tablets; Tongmai granules; pediatric pharyngeal granules; stroke rejuvenation pills; and Xiao Chai Hu granules which relieves exterior syndromes, clears heat, soothes the liver, and harmonizes the stomach. Further, the company provides Alopecia areata; Bear bile drops that clears heat, calms the liver, and improves eyesight, as well as used for infantile convulsions and sore throat; and Shanhaidan capsules. The company was founded in 2000 and is based in Shanghai, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Shanghai Kaibao Pharmaceutical CO.,Ltd reported revenue of ¥1.2B in FY2025 versus ¥1.1B in FY2021, a compound +1.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥279M in FY2025, compounding +18.7%/yr from FY2021.

300039 screens 25% overvalued. Compare with Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co →

Peer Group

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 626 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 45/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.