Walvax BioTech (300142) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 14, 2026: fair value of Walvax BioTech ¥2.72, price ¥13.35, upside -79.6%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥9.76 – ¥92.36 · fair‑value band ¥1.90 – ¥3.46 · the ¥13.35 price screens above the ¥2.72 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Walvax Biotechnology Co., Ltd., engages in the research and development, manufacture, and distribution of vaccines in China and internationally.
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Walvax Biotechnology Co., Ltd., engages in the research and development, manufacture, and distribution of vaccines in China and internationally. Its vaccine portfolio includes recombinant human papillomavirus bivalent, 13-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide conjugate, 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide, group ACYW135 meningococcal polysaccharide, group A and C meningococcal polysaccharide, group A and group C meningococcal conjugate, and haemophilus influenzae type b conjugate vaccines, as well as diphtheria, tetanus and acellular pertussis combined vaccine. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Kunming, China.
Stock analysis
Walvax BioTech (300142) currently trades at ¥13.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.72, 79.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥3.61 per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the ¥13.35 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at ¥0.7400, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥1.90 (bear) to ¥3.46 (bull), the price of ¥13.35 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Walvax BioTech reported revenue of 2.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound −8.7%/yr. Reported net income was 178M CNY in FY2025, compounding −19.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 21.4B CNY (≈ $3.2B) · P/E ratio 111.3 · P/S ratio 8.20 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1200 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 7.4% · Return on equity 2.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −80%, 300142 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.2100 to ¥4.49). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear¥1.90Fair Value ¥2.72Bull¥3.46
Price ¥13.35 · Upside -79.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income¥3.73¥3.49¥3.4476
Owner Earnings¥1.44¥2.32¥3.9773
EPV¥0.7100¥0.7400¥0.760073
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings¥1.44¥2.32¥3.9773
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥0.7600¥4.49¥6.2563
Lynch FV¥1.28¥1.82¥2.3761
PEG = 1.0¥1.28¥1.82¥2.3757
EPV¥0.7100¥0.7400¥0.760073
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM¥0.1200¥0.2400¥0.370066
DDM Multi-Stage¥0.1200¥0.2100¥0.260067
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥1.83¥2.44¥3.0663
P/S Multiple¥1.42¥1.89¥2.3657
P/B Multiple¥1.42¥1.89¥2.3655
EV/EBIT¥0.9900¥1.14¥1.2865
EV/EBITDA¥3.00¥3.82¥4.6367
EV/Revenue¥0.8700¥1.00¥1.1353
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥2.70¥3.61¥5.3953
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥3.73¥3.49¥3.4476
ROIC Compounder¥0.7100¥0.7400¥0.760071
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥1.90¥2.72¥3.5467
P/S and P/B multiple show the same value here: both are capped by the same earnings anchor (earnings per share times 17), because margin and return on equity do not support the sector multiple.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.8/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−14.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−22.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.1% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−15.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−16.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−16.1% vs 4.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 3%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 591 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−79.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)2.0% · Below median
Return on assets1.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)11.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)−7.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−43.6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)111.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.48× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)13.19× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA48.2× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 24
PAST (return on equity)8· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)19· sector 31
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Walvax BioTech Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/300142
Frequently asked questions
Is Walvax BioTech (300142) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.72 versus a price of ¥13.35, about −80% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300142?
Our model-based fair value for Walvax BioTech is ¥2.72 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥13.35.
What is the quality score of 300142?
Walvax BioTech has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Walvax BioTech (300142)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥2.72 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.90, optimistic scenario ¥3.46. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Walvax BioTech stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥2.72, about −80% upside versus a price of ¥13.35 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.90, optimistic scenario ¥3.46. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Walvax BioTech (300142)?
Walvax BioTech reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Walvax BioTech pay a dividend?
Walvax BioTech currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.94% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Walvax BioTech (300142)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Walvax BioTech it is ¥2.72 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of ¥13.35. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Walvax BioTech stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 300142 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥13.35, fair value ¥2.72, a gap of about −80% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 300142?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥13.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥2.72). For Walvax BioTech the two are ¥10.63 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Walvax BioTech worth?
The market values Walvax BioTech at about 21.4B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is ¥13.35; our models calculate a fair value of ¥2.72 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 300142?
Our models span a range for Walvax BioTech: cautious scenario ¥1.90, base ¥2.72, optimistic ¥3.46 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price ¥13.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 300142?
Walvax BioTech trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 111.3 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥2.72 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.5, P/S 13.2, EV/EBITDA 48.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Walvax BioTech (300142)?
Balance-sheet figures for Walvax BioTech (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 2.0%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 300142 from its 52-week high?
Walvax BioTech trades at ¥13.35, about 17% below its 52-week high of ¥16.10 and 24% above the low of ¥10.77 (as of Oct 14, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥2.72 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Walvax BioTech?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Walvax BioTech stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price ¥13.35, calculated fair value ¥2.72 (−80%), Quality Score 55/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 300142 calculated?
We run Walvax BioTech through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥2.72, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Walvax BioTech itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Walvax BioTech (300142)?
The closing price on Oct 14, 2026 was ¥13.35. Our model-based fair value is ¥2.72, about −80% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Walvax BioTech right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥3.46). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (¥1.90 to ¥3.46) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Walvax BioTech
How large is the market capitalisation of Walvax BioTech (300142)?
The market capitalisation of Walvax BioTech is 21.4B CNY (≈ $3.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Walvax BioTech (300142)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Walvax BioTech is 8.20 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Walvax BioTech (300142)?
Earnings per share at Walvax BioTech are ¥0.1200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 111.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Walvax BioTech (300142)?
The dividend yield of Walvax BioTech is 0.9% (payout 104%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Walvax BioTech (300142)?
The net margin of Walvax BioTech is 7.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Walvax BioTech (300142)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Walvax BioTech is 2.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Walvax BioTech (300142)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Walvax BioTech is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Walvax BioTech (300142)?
The operating margin of Walvax BioTech is −7.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Walvax BioTech (300142)?
Revenue at Walvax BioTech is growing −43.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −22.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Walvax BioTech (300142)?
Earnings per share at Walvax BioTech are growing +39.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Walvax BioTech (300142) generate?
The free cash flow of Walvax BioTech is −15.2M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Walvax BioTech (300142) hold?
Walvax BioTech holds more cash than debt, 925M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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