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Cec Environmental Protection Co (300172) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 3.1B CNY

CE Cec Environmental Protection Co 300172 · SHE
Price¥4.61
Fair Value¥2.18
Upside-52.7%
Quality71/100
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Mixed Growth
Solidly profitable · 11.0% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.20% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (9/14)
Narrow moat 44/100
Evidence: High Range ¥1.64 – ¥2.73 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 9, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 32 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 9, 2026, revised from ¥2.54 to ¥2.18 (−14.2%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +9.2% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 53% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.73). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥9.01 ¥3.35 Fair Value ¥2.18 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥3.35 – ¥9.01 · fair‑value band ¥1.64 – ¥2.73 · the ¥4.61 price screens above the ¥2.18 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.

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Analysis

Cec Environmental Protection Co (300172) currently trades at ¥4.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.18, implying the stock looks roughly 52.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Cec Environmental Protection Co generated revenue of 724M CNY at a net margin of 11.0%. Revenue grew 4.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.2%. Net debt stands at 7.1M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥1.64 (bear case) to ¥2.73 (bull case); at ¥4.61, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -53%, 300172 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥6.10 ¥8.24 ¥11.01 80
Residual Income ¥2.11 ¥2.10 ¥1.89 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥3.05 ¥3.86 ¥4.56 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥5.95 ¥8.24 ¥11.34 38
Owner Earnings ¥2.42 ¥3.30 ¥4.50 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥3.05 ¥3.75 ¥4.54 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥3.60 ¥4.72 ¥5.91 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥3.40 ¥4.36 ¥5.28 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥4.10 ¥4.91 ¥5.80 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥4.47 ¥5.55 ¥6.77 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥4.34 ¥5.32 ¥6.33 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥0.8200 ¥1.82 ¥2.33 54
PEG = 1.0 ¥0.2900 ¥0.4200 ¥0.5500 46
EPV ¥1.15 ¥1.30 ¥1.43 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥0.4700 ¥0.7300 ¥1.02 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥0.4700 ¥0.6700 ¥0.8900 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥1.90 ¥2.54 ¥3.17 63
P/S Multiple ¥1.54 ¥2.05 ¥2.57 58
P/B Multiple ¥1.54 ¥2.05 ¥2.57 55
EV/EBIT ¥1.84 ¥2.38 ¥2.93 53
EV/EBITDA ¥2.46 ¥3.22 ¥3.98 54
EV/Revenue ¥1.36 ¥1.87 ¥2.37 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.43 ¥1.91 ¥2.85 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥6.10 ¥8.24 ¥11.01 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥3.05 ¥3.86 ¥4.56 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥2.11 ¥2.10 ¥1.89 76
ROIC Compounder ¥1.15 ¥1.30 ¥1.43 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥1.42 ¥2.02 ¥2.63 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥4.72) versus Dividend Discount (¥0.6700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 724M CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.3%
Net margin 11.0%
Return on equity 4.2%
Free cash flow 388M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 38.0
More key figures
Operating margin 14.1%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.1200
Dividend yield 2.2%
EPS growth (YoY) -8.3%
Net debt 7.1M CNY FY2022

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 71/100

Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35

Profitability 27
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 84
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 84
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 17
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 10
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Cec Environmental Protection Co.,Ltd provides ecological environmental management services in China. The company provides industrial water, sewage and water environment comprehensive treatment, solid and hazardous waste disposal, soil remediation, kitchen and food waste co-treatment, flue gas and VOCs treatment; smart environmental protection; and high-end …

Full company description

Cec Environmental Protection Co.,Ltd provides ecological environmental management services in China. The company provides industrial water, sewage and water environment comprehensive treatment, solid and hazardous waste disposal, soil remediation, kitchen and food waste co-treatment, flue gas and VOCs treatment; smart environmental protection; and high-end equipment, etc. It also offers system solutions comprising of research and development, equipment system integration, general contracting, core equipment manufacturing, operation and maintenance, and project investment business for power, petrochemical, metallurgy, and building materials industries. In addition, the company provides intelligent environmental protection system integration and governance facility operation and maintenance, as well as operates innovation platform; and wastewater zero-liquid discharge, sludge drying and coupling treatment, distributed intelligent water purification, and ultra-clean flue gas emissions services. The company was formerly known as Nanjing CEC Environmental Protection Co., Ltd. and changed its name to CEC Environmental Protection Co., Ltd. in April 2015. CEC Environmental Protection Co.,Ltd was founded in 2001 and is based in Nanjing, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Cec Environmental Protection Co reported revenue of ¥716M in FY2025 versus ¥874M in FY2021, a compound −4.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥81.7M in FY2025, compounding −6.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
716M CNY
Latest YoY
−14.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−11.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−4.9%
Avg. growth/yr (18Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.0%
Revenue −4.9%/yr
FY21 ¥874M
FY22 ¥1.0B
FY23 ¥1.0B
FY24 ¥837M
FY25 ¥716M
Net income −6.4%/yr
FY21 ¥107M
FY22 ¥76.2M
FY23 ¥85.8M
FY24 ¥74.2M
FY25 ¥81.7M

300172 screens 53% overvalued. Compare with Veralto Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cec Environmental Protection Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/300172

Peer Group

Pollution & Treatment Controls · 91 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −53% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 11% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 14% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.2% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.04× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Pollution & Treatment Controls median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 38.0× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.60× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 4.26× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 19.8× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 22 · sector 14
PAST 17 · sector 10
HEALTH 98 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 44 · sector 37

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Pollution & Treatment Controls stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 9, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Veralto Corporation VLTO $94.21 $69.11 -27%
Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation ZWS $47.63 $24.92 -48%
Canmax Technologies Co 300390 ¥57.02 ¥10.41 -82%
CECO Environmental Corp CECO $83.63 $15.19 -82%
Fujian Longking Co 600388 ¥17.58 ¥15.59 -11%
Munters Group MTRS kr 166.60 kr 16.90 -90%
China Conch Venture Holdings 0586 HK$8.83 HK$14.14 +60%
Mega Union Technology Inc 6944 1,005 TWD 539.58 TWD -46%
MayAir Technology (China) Co 688376 ¥96.57 ¥18.80 -81%
Shanghai Emperor of Cleaning Hi-Tech Co 603200 ¥38.97 ¥5.73 -85%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Cec Environmental Protection Co (300172) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.18 versus a price of ¥4.61, about −53% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300172?
Our model-based fair value for Cec Environmental Protection Co is ¥2.18 (as of Jul 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥4.61.
What is the quality score of 300172?
Cec Environmental Protection Co has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Cec Environmental Protection Co (300172)?
Cec Environmental Protection Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 724M CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 9, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 300172?
The net profit margin of Cec Environmental Protection Co is about 11.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 11.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Cec Environmental Protection Co pay a dividend?
Cec Environmental Protection Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.20% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 9, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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