Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect (300172) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect ¥2.18, price ¥4.51, upside -51.7%, quality 71 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.89 – ¥9.01 · fair‑value band ¥1.64 – ¥2.73 · the ¥4.51 price screens above the ¥2.18 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Cec Environmental Protection Co.,Ltd provides ecological environmental management services in China. The company provides industrial water, sewage and water environment comprehensive treatment, solid and hazardous waste disposal, soil remediation, kitchen and food waste co-treatment, flue gas and VOCs treatment; smart environmental protection; and high-end equipment, etc. It also offers system solutions comprising of research and development, equipment system integration, general contracting, core equipment manufacturing, operation and maintenance, and project investment business for power, petrochemical, metallurgy, and building materials industries. In addition, the company provides intelligent environmental protection system integration and governance facility operation and maintenance, as well as operates innovation platform; and wastewater zero-liquid discharge, sludge drying and coupling treatment, distributed intelligent water purification, and ultra-clean flue gas emissions services. The company was formerly known as Nanjing CEC Environmental Protection Co., Ltd. and changed its name to CEC Environmental Protection Co., Ltd. in April 2015. CEC Environmental Protection Co.,Ltd was founded in 2001 and is based in Nanjing, China.
Stock analysis
Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect (300172) currently trades at ¥4.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.18, implying the stock looks roughly 106.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥4.50 per share, and 5 of the 25 models we run sit above the ¥4.51 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥0.5700, and 20 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥1.64 (bear) to ¥2.73 (bull), the price of ¥4.51 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect reported revenue of 716M CNY in FY2025 versus 874M CNY in FY2021, a compound −4.9%/yr. Reported net income was 81.7M CNY in FY2025, compounding −6.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.1B CNY (≈ $455M) · P/E ratio 37.6 · P/S ratio 4.29 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1200 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 11.4% · Return on equity 4.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −52%, 300172 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥1.64Fair Value ¥2.18Bull ¥2.73
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0147 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−8.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 12%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.2% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Pollution & Treatment Controls · 94 stocks
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Is Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect (300172) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.18 versus a price of ¥4.51, about −52% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300172?
Our model-based fair value for Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect is ¥2.18 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥4.51.
What is the quality score of 300172?
Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect (300172)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥2.18 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.64, optimistic scenario ¥2.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥2.18, about −52% upside versus a price of ¥4.51 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.64, optimistic scenario ¥2.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect (300172)?
Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 724M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect pay a dividend?
Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.22% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect (300172)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect would have to grow free cash flow by -6.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -4.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 300172 use?
Our models discount Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.17, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect that is -6.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect (300172) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect grew -4.9 % a year. The price currently implies -6.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect (300172) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect (-6.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect (300172)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.71 %: that much free cash flow Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect (300172)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect it is ¥2.18 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥4.51. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 300172 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥4.51, fair value ¥2.18, a gap of about −52% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 300172?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥4.51); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥2.18). For Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect the two are ¥2.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect worth?
The market values Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect at about 3.1B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥4.51; our models calculate a fair value of ¥2.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 300172?
Our models span a range for Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect: cautious scenario ¥1.64, base ¥2.18, optimistic ¥2.73 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥4.51). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 300172?
Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 37.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥2.18 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 4.2, EV/EBITDA 19.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect (300172)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.2%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 300172 from its 52-week high?
Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect trades at ¥4.51, about 28% below its 52-week high of ¥6.27 and 10% above the low of ¥4.11 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥2.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Veralto Corporation, Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation, Canmax Technologies Co, CECO Environmental Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥4.51, calculated fair value ¥2.18 (−52%), Quality Score 71/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 300172 calculated?
We run Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥2.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect (300172)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was ¥4.51. Our model-based fair value is ¥2.18, about −52% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect right now?
A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.73). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect
How large is the market capitalisation of Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect (300172)?
The market capitalisation of Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect is 3.1B CNY (≈ $455M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect (300172)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect is 4.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect (300172)?
Earnings per share at Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect are ¥0.1200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 37.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect (300172)?
The dividend yield of Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect is 2.2% (payout 83.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect (300172)?
The net margin of Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect is 11.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect (300172)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect is 4.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect (300172)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect is 4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect (300172)?
The operating margin of Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect is 14.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect (300172)?
Revenue at Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect is growing +4.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect (300172)?
Earnings per share at Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect are growing −8.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect (300172) carry?
The net debt of Nanjing CEC Environmental Protect is 7.1M CNY (fiscal year 2022, ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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