CECO Environmental Corp. (CECO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of CECO Environmental Corp. stock $10.47, price $43.71, that is 76.0% below the price, quality 37 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.25 – $99.67 · fair‑value band $5.45 – $16.07 · the $43.71 price screens above the $10.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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CECO Environmental Corp. provides critical solutions in industrial air quality, industrial water treatment, and energy transition solutions in the United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, China, and internationally.
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It operates through Engineered Systems and Industrial Process Solutions segments.
The company offers emissions management, fluid bed cyclones, thermal acoustics, and separation and filtration solutions; engineering services and environmental systems; and industrial exhaust air contamination treatment and control systems, solutions, and services, as well as intelligent control solutions.
It also provides engineered and configured products and solutions, including dampers and diverters, expansion joints, selective catalytic reduction systems, severe-service and industrial cyclones, dust collectors, thermal oxidizers, filtration systems, wet and dry scrubbers, separators and coalescers, water treatment packages, metallic and non-metallic pumps, industrial silencers, and fluid handling equipment, as well as plant engineering services and engineered design build fabrication services.
In addition, the company offers solutions for air pollution and contamination control, fluid handling, and process filtration in various applications, such as aluminum beverage can production, automobile production, food and beverage processing, semiconductor fabrication, electronics production, steel and aluminum mill processing, wood manufacturing, desalination, and aquaculture markets, as well as it provides engineered industrial process heating solutions for process industries.
It markets its power generation, hydrocarbon processing, water/wastewater treatment, oily water separation and treatment, marine and naval vessels, and midstream oil and gas sectors. CECO Environmental Corp. was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in Addison, Texas.
Stock analysis
CECO Environmental Corp. (CECO) currently trades at $43.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.47, 76% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $15.68 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the $43.71 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $3.67, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $5.45 (bear) to $16.07 (bull), the price of $43.71 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
CECO Environmental Corp. reported revenue of $774M in FY2025 versus $324M in FY2021, a compound +24.3%/yr. Reported net income was $50.1M in FY2025, compounding +143.4%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $2.2B Mid · P/S ratio 2.44 · EPS (TTM) $−0.7700 · Net margin −3.4% · Return on equity −2.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin 4.9% · Revenue (TTM) $903M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 29 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −76%, CECO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$5.45Fair Value $10.47Bull$16.07
Price $43.71 · Downside -76.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Owner Earnings$6.41$12.32$21.1174
EPV$0.4500$0.9100$1.3070
Residual Income$5.17$6.43$9.2870
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings$6.41$12.32$21.1174
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$5.81$25.84$35.3964
Lynch FV$6.71$9.58$12.4561
PEG = 1.0$6.71$9.58$12.4557
EPV$0.4500$0.9100$1.3070
Multiples
P/E Multiple$13.46$17.95$22.4363
P/S Multiple$10.90$14.53$18.1658
EV/EBIT$11.40$15.15$18.9066
EV/EBITDA$12.89$17.14$21.3967
EV/Revenue$8.18$11.62$15.0653
Economic Profit
Residual Income$5.17$6.43$9.2870
ROIC Compounder$0.4500$0.9100$1.3069
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$10.98$15.68$20.3967
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $1.5M, on Jun 1, 2026. Over the same period, 2 people sold shares worth $9.5M.
SaleJason DezwirekDirector68,000 shares at $96.95$6.6MJun 25, 2026
SalePeter K. JohanssonSVP, Chief Financial Officer30,000 shares at $96.49$2.9MJun 24, 2026
BuyRichard F WallmanDirector2× since Apr 29, 2026: 35,000 shares, avg. $75.39$2.6MJun 1, 2026
SaleMunish NandaDirector11,218 shares at $74.00$830,132May 1, 2026
Plus 14 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+38.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.7% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+42.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+42.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.42.7% vs 10.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 7%
2025 sits 274% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Modest ROE and margins form the main strength, yet weak cash conversion despite reported profits stands as the key weakness.
Main risk: Execution risks on higher-margin projects from the Thermon acquisition could undermine profitability improvements.
CECO is shifting its primary listing to the Texas Stock Exchange next week to align with its Addison headquarters and the state's expanding business environment. Operations, financial reporting and shareholder rights stay the same. Our models see the stock as overvalued even with the sharp backlog increase tied to the Thermon acquisition. Will the Texas repositioning improve access to growth capital more than it highlights execution risks on the higher-margin projects?
Compare CECO Environmental Corp. with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Pollution & Treatment Controls · 86 stocks
P/B6.95× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)2.44× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA26.7× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 22
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)67· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 37
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is CECO Environmental Corp. (CECO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.47 versus a price of $43.71, about 76% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CECO?
Our model-based fair value for CECO Environmental Corp. is $10.47 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $43.71.
What is the quality score of CECO?
CECO Environmental Corp. has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CECO Environmental Corp. (CECO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.47 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.45, optimistic scenario $16.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CECO Environmental Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.47, about 76% lower versus a price of $43.71 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.45, optimistic scenario $16.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CECO Environmental Corp. (CECO)?
CECO Environmental Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $903M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of CECO Environmental Corp. (CECO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CECO Environmental Corp. it is $10.47 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $43.71. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 5 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is CECO Environmental Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, CECO trades above its calculated fair value: price $43.71, fair value $10.47, a gap of about −76% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CECO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($43.71); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.47). For CECO Environmental Corp. the two are $33.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CECO Environmental Corp. worth?
The market values CECO Environmental Corp. at about $2.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $43.71; our models calculate a fair value of $10.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CECO?
Our models span a range for CECO Environmental Corp.: cautious scenario $5.45, base $10.47, optimistic $16.07 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $43.71). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of CECO?
The PEG ratio of CECO Environmental Corp. is 1.88 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of CECO Environmental Corp. (CECO)?
Balance-sheet figures for CECO Environmental Corp. (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −2.4%, debt of 0.66 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CECO from its 52-week high?
CECO Environmental Corp. trades at $43.71, about 56% below its 52-week high of $99.67 and 16% above the low of $37.66 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CECO Environmental Corp.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Veralto Corporation, Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation, Fujian Longking Co, Munters Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CECO Environmental Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $43.71, calculated fair value $10.47 (−76%), Quality Score 37/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CECO calculated?
We run CECO Environmental Corp. through 13 models from 5 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $10.47 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. CECO Environmental Corp. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CECO Environmental Corp. (CECO)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $43.71. Our model-based fair value is $10.47, about 76% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CECO Environmental Corp. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($16.07). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($5.45 to $16.07). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of CECO Environmental Corp.
How large is the market capitalisation of CECO Environmental Corp. (CECO)?
The market capitalisation of CECO Environmental Corp. is $2.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CECO Environmental Corp. (CECO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CECO Environmental Corp. is 2.44 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CECO Environmental Corp. (CECO)?
Earnings per share at CECO Environmental Corp. are $−0.7700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of CECO Environmental Corp. (CECO)?
The net margin of CECO Environmental Corp. is −3.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CECO Environmental Corp. (CECO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CECO Environmental Corp. is −2.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CECO Environmental Corp. (CECO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CECO Environmental Corp. is 4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CECO Environmental Corp. (CECO)?
The operating margin of CECO Environmental Corp. is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CECO Environmental Corp. (CECO)?
Revenue at CECO Environmental Corp. is growing +53.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CECO Environmental Corp. (CECO)?
Earnings per share at CECO Environmental Corp. are growing −41.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does CECO Environmental Corp. (CECO) generate?
The free cash flow of CECO Environmental Corp. is −$5.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does CECO Environmental Corp. (CECO) hold?
CECO Environmental Corp. holds more cash than debt, $8.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026
