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Hangzhou Changchuan Technology Co (300604) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · CN · Market cap 209B CNY

HC Hangzhou Changchuan Technology Co 300604 · SHE
Price¥278.53
Fair Value¥33.33
Upside-88.0%
Quality65/100
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Expensive Growth
Highly profitable · 26.9% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
Wide moat 80/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥17.97 – ¥82.01 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 25 days ago

Share price −8.5% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 88% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥82.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The model range is unusually wide (¥17.97 to ¥82.01). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥374.00 ¥15.57 Fair Value ¥33.33 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥15.57 – ¥374.00 · fair‑value band ¥17.97 – ¥82.01 · the ¥278.53 price screens above the ¥33.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Hangzhou Changchuan Technology Co (300604) currently trades at ¥278.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥33.33, implying the stock looks roughly 88.0% overvalued today. We read business quality at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Hangzhou Changchuan Technology Co generated revenue of 5.9B CNY at a net margin of 26.9%. Revenue grew 69.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 33.4%. Net debt stands at 174M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥17.97 (bear case) to ¥82.01 (bull case); at ¥278.53, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -75% fair-value upside, at -88%, 300604 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥1.71 ¥1.91 ¥2.25 80
Residual Income ¥16.94 ¥25.52 ¥279.03 76
ROIC Compounder ¥30.09 ¥46.87 ¥70.35 72
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥1.73 ¥1.84 ¥2.23 38
Owner Earnings ¥25.31 ¥57.25 ¥127.29 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥13.66 ¥26.03 ¥52.21 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥21.05 ¥40.98 ¥80.24 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥25.90 ¥64.12 ¥117.61 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥9.95 ¥28.30 ¥42.57 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥16.16 ¥44.58 ¥97.53 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥19.78 ¥55.27 ¥116.96 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥14.27 ¥99.52 ¥139.66 54
Lynch FV ¥51.42 ¥73.45 ¥95.49 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥51.42 ¥73.45 ¥95.49 46
EPV ¥22.94 ¥26.72 ¥30.08 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥1.80 ¥3.92 ¥6.60 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥1.80 ¥3.21 ¥4.09 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥31.48 ¥41.97 ¥52.46 63
P/S Multiple ¥15.64 ¥20.85 ¥26.06 58
P/B Multiple ¥16.79 ¥22.39 ¥27.98 55
EV/EBIT ¥33.65 ¥44.35 ¥55.06 53
EV/EBITDA ¥26.73 ¥35.14 ¥43.54 54
EV/Revenue ¥16.13 ¥22.38 ¥28.64 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥3.73 ¥5.00 ¥7.46 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥1.71 ¥1.91 ¥2.25 80
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥16.94 ¥25.52 ¥279.03 76
ROIC Compounder ¥30.09 ¥46.87 ¥70.35 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥66.25 ¥94.65 ¥123.04 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥94.65) versus Growth DCF (¥1.91). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 5.9B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +69.1%
Net margin 26.9%
Return on equity 33.4%
Free cash flow 6.9M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 84.0
More key figures
Operating margin 27.8%
EPS (TTM) ¥2.46
Dividend yield 0.0%
EPS growth (YoY) +212%
Net debt 174M CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 65/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78

Profitability 69
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 87
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 16
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 81
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 18
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 39
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 84
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 78
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Hangzhou Changchuan Technology Co.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, researches and develops, produces, and sells integrated circuit equipment in China and internationally. It offers testing equipment for integrated circuit packaging and testing companies, wafer manufacturing companies, and chip design companies.

Full company description

Hangzhou Changchuan Technology Co.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, researches and develops, produces, and sells integrated circuit equipment in China and internationally. It offers testing equipment for integrated circuit packaging and testing companies, wafer manufacturing companies, and chip design companies. The company also provides handlers comprising tri-temp pick and place, ambient/high-temp pick and place, SLT tri-temp pick and place, SLT ambient/high-temp pick and place, gravity, and turret handlers; testers consisting of mixed signal, power, digital, and burn-in testers; probers, including ambient/high-temp and tri-temp probers; and AOI equipment, such as defect inspection and metrology equipment, and bare die test handlers. In addition, it offers solution consultation; after-sale services and support, including spare parts services, technical support, and software/hardware upgrades; application engineering development services, such as engineering and test interface hardware development; training; and online report services for maintenance. Further, the company engages in trading; research and development; and investment management activities. Its products are used in automotive electronics, mobile and consumer, server and fixed-line communication, medical care, cloud computing, and other industry applications. Hangzhou Changchuan Technology Co.,Ltd was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Hangzhou Changchuan Technology Co reported revenue of ¥5.3B in FY2025 versus ¥1.5B in FY2021, a compound +36.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥1.3B in FY2025, compounding +57.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
5.3B CNY
Latest YoY
+45.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+27.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+45.8%
Avg. growth/yr (13Y)
+53.7%
Revenue +36.8%/yr
FY21 ¥1.5B
FY22 ¥2.6B
FY23 ¥1.8B
FY24 ¥3.6B
FY25 ¥5.3B
Net income +57.2%/yr
FY21 ¥218M
FY22 ¥461M
FY23 ¥45.2M
FY24 ¥458M
FY25 ¥1.3B

300604 screens 88% overvalued. Compare with ASML Holding →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hangzhou Changchuan Technology Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/300604

Peer Group

Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 208 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −88% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 33% · Top 25%
Return on assets 11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 27% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 28% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 69% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.23× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductor Equipment & Materials median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 133.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 44.05× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 35.62× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 4,476.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 58
PAST 100 · sector 30
HEALTH 89 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 1 · sector 17

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 30/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Semiconductor Equipment & Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
ASML Holding ASML C$50.50 C$15.57 -69%
Applied Materials, Inc AMAT $579.43 $143.08 -75%
Lam Research Corporation LRCX $346.10 $67.57 -80%
KLA Corporation KLAC $212.75 $53.01 -75%
NAURA Technology Group 002371 ¥774.20 ¥151.43 -80%
Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc 688012 ¥350.69 ¥41.79 -88%
Piotech Inc 688072 ¥832.00 ¥431.44 -48%
Hon. Precision, Inc 7769 6,005 TWD 1,804 TWD -70%
MPI Corporation 6223 5,600 TWD 609.44 TWD -89%
HANMI Semiconductor Co 042700 222,000 KRW 38,794 KRW -83%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Hangzhou Changchuan Technology Co (300604) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥33.33 versus a price of ¥278.53, about −88% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300604?
Our model-based fair value for Hangzhou Changchuan Technology Co is ¥33.33 (as of Jul 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥278.53.
What is the quality score of 300604?
Hangzhou Changchuan Technology Co has a Quality Score of 65/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Hangzhou Changchuan Technology Co (300604)?
Hangzhou Changchuan Technology Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.9B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 300604?
The net profit margin of Hangzhou Changchuan Technology Co is about 26.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 26.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Hangzhou Changchuan Technology Co pay a dividend?
Hangzhou Changchuan Technology Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.04% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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