Three Squirrels Inc (300783) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 6.9B CNY

A solid business, but screening 24% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• Our model range runs from ¥10.42 (bear) to ¥17.35 (bull), base ¥13.34. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
• Quality 52/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥15.61 – ¥58.24 · fair‑value band ¥10.42 – ¥17.35 · the ¥17.49 price screens above the ¥13.34 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.

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Analysis

Three Squirrels Inc (300783) currently trades at ¥17.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥13.34, implying the stock looks roughly 23.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Three Squirrels Inc generated revenue of 10.3B CNY at a net margin of 1.8%. Revenue grew 3.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 441M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥10.42 (bear case) to ¥17.35 (bull case); at ¥17.49, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -3% fair-value upside, at -24%, 300783 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples (¥8.12) versus Earnings-Based (¥2.91). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Three Squirrels Inc. produces and retails food products. The company offers roasted food and nut products, baked goods, meat products, and dried fruits.

Full company description

Three Squirrels Inc. produces and retails food products. The company offers roasted food and nut products, baked goods, meat products, and dried fruits. It also engages in the wholesale and retail of daily necessities, office supplies, plastic and metal products, craft gifts, electronic products, clothing, shoes, and hats; retail of publications; retail of souvenirs and handicrafts with the Three Squirrels logo; sales and operation of own brands and cartoon image products; software development by undertaking service outsourcing; warehousing services, site rental, information technology services; and sales of waste materials and sales of edible agricultural products. Three Squirrels Inc. was founded in 2012 and is based in Wuhu, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Three Squirrels Inc reported revenue of ¥10.2B in FY2025 versus ¥9.8B in FY2021, a compound +1.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥155M in FY2025, compounding −21.6%/yr from FY2021.

300783 screens 24% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé India Limited →

Peer Group

Packaged Foods · 653 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.