Three Squirrels (300783) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Three Squirrels ¥13.34, price ¥16.98, upside -21.5%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥15.61 – ¥58.24 · fair‑value band ¥10.15 – ¥17.35 · the ¥16.98 price screens above the ¥13.34 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Three Squirrels Inc. produces and retails food products. The company offers roasted food and nut products, baked goods, meat products, and dried fruits.
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Three Squirrels Inc. produces and retails food products. The company offers roasted food and nut products, baked goods, meat products, and dried fruits. It also engages in the wholesale and retail of daily necessities, office supplies, plastic and metal products, craft gifts, electronic products, clothing, shoes, and hats; retail of publications; retail of souvenirs and handicrafts with the Three Squirrels logo; sales and operation of own brands and cartoon image products; software development by undertaking service outsourcing; warehousing services, site rental, information technology services; and sales of waste materials and sales of edible agricultural products. Three Squirrels Inc. was founded in 2012 and is based in Wuhu, China.
Stock analysis
Three Squirrels (300783) currently trades at ¥16.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥13.34, implying the stock looks roughly 27.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥8.12 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the ¥16.98 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥2.91, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥10.15 (bear) to ¥17.35 (bull), the price of ¥16.98 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Three Squirrels reported revenue of 10.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 9.8B CNY in FY2021, a compound +1.1%/yr. Reported net income was 155M CNY in FY2025, compounding −21.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 6.8B CNY (≈ $1.0B) · P/E ratio 36.1 · P/S ratio 0.55 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.4700 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 1.5% · Return on equity 5.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at −21%, 300783 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥10.15Fair Value ¥13.34Bull ¥17.35
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.2582 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.21/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +17.4% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−11.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−12.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−12% vs 1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 2%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 646 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−21% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Three Squirrels Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/300783
Frequently asked questions
Is Three Squirrels (300783) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥13.34 versus a price of ¥16.98, about −21% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300783?
Our model-based fair value for Three Squirrels is ¥13.34 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥16.98.
What is the quality score of 300783?
Three Squirrels has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Three Squirrels (300783)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥13.34 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥10.15, optimistic scenario ¥17.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Three Squirrels stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥13.34, about −21% upside versus a price of ¥16.98 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥10.15, optimistic scenario ¥17.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Three Squirrels (300783)?
Three Squirrels reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 10.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Three Squirrels pay a dividend?
Three Squirrels currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.69% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Three Squirrels (300783)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Three Squirrels it is ¥13.34 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of ¥16.98. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Three Squirrels stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 300783 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥16.98, fair value ¥13.34, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 300783?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥16.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥13.34). For Three Squirrels the two are ¥3.64 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Three Squirrels worth?
The market values Three Squirrels at about 6.8B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is ¥16.98; our models calculate a fair value of ¥13.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 300783?
Our models span a range for Three Squirrels: cautious scenario ¥10.15, base ¥13.34, optimistic ¥17.35 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price ¥16.98). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 300783?
Three Squirrels trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.1 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥13.34 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.3, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 32.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Three Squirrels (300783)?
Balance-sheet figures for Three Squirrels (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 5.1%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 300783 from its 52-week high?
Three Squirrels trades at ¥16.98, about 33% below its 52-week high of ¥25.52 and 9% above the low of ¥15.61 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥13.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Three Squirrels?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, The Kraft Heinz Company, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Three Squirrels stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price ¥16.98, calculated fair value ¥13.34 (−21%), Quality Score 52/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 300783 calculated?
We run Three Squirrels through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥13.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Three Squirrels itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Three Squirrels (300783)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥16.98. Our model-based fair value is ¥13.34, about −21% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Three Squirrels right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Three Squirrels
How large is the market capitalisation of Three Squirrels (300783)?
The market capitalisation of Three Squirrels is 6.8B CNY (≈ $1.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Three Squirrels (300783)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Three Squirrels is 0.55 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Three Squirrels (300783)?
Earnings per share at Three Squirrels are ¥0.4700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 36.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Three Squirrels (300783)?
The dividend yield of Three Squirrels is 0.7% (payout 24.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Three Squirrels (300783)?
The net margin of Three Squirrels is 1.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Three Squirrels (300783)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Three Squirrels is 5.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Three Squirrels (300783)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Three Squirrels is 5.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Three Squirrels (300783)?
The operating margin of Three Squirrels is 8.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Three Squirrels (300783)?
Revenue at Three Squirrels is growing +3.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Three Squirrels (300783)?
Earnings per share at Three Squirrels are growing +13.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Three Squirrels (300783) generate?
The free cash flow of Three Squirrels is −28.9M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Three Squirrels (300783) hold?
Three Squirrels holds more cash than debt, 441M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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