Panda Dairy Corporation (300898) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 2.5B CNY

A solid business, but screening 49% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥16.06). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• A fairly wide model range (¥7.47 to ¥16.06) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥14.28 – ¥41.02 · fair‑value band ¥7.47 – ¥16.06 · the ¥21.36 price screens above the ¥10.80 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.

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Analysis

Panda Dairy Corporation (300898) currently trades at ¥21.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥10.80, implying the stock looks roughly 49.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Panda Dairy Corporation generated revenue of 846M CNY at a net margin of 13.2%. Revenue grew 20.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 182M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥7.47 (bear case) to ¥16.06 (bull case); at ¥21.36, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -3% fair-value upside, at -49%, 300898 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥15.63) versus Earnings-Based (¥4.76). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Panda Dairy Corporation engages in the research, development, production, and sale of concentrated dairy products in China. It operates through Concentrated Dairy Products, Coconut Products, and Dairy Trading segments.

Full company description

Panda Dairy Corporation engages in the research, development, production, and sale of concentrated dairy products in China. It operates through Concentrated Dairy Products, Coconut Products, and Dairy Trading segments. The company offers sweetened and unsweetened condensed milk; evaporated milk and condensed milk sauces; cream, concentrated milk, and base milk; thick, fresh, and freshly squeezed coconut milk, as well as and other coconut products; mozzarella cheese, flavored cheese slices, cream cheese, and cheese sauces; grain-based milk; mango pomelo sago; whipping cream; non-hydrogenated base, butter base, and light milk; cheese snacks, lollipops, popcorn, and biscuits; and sauces and milk tea catering ingredients. It also engages in supply chain management, food business, investment, and Internet sales activities, as well as the provision of technical services. The company's products are used in catering, baking, beverage, and dessert applications. It sells its products under the Panda, Kebao, Coconut, Zhichun Times, Red Panda Companion, and Nothing Cheese brands. The company was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Wenzhou, China. Panda Dairy Corporation operates as a subsidiary of Hainan Xi'an Food Technology Co., Ltd.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Panda Dairy Corporation reported revenue of ¥811M in FY2025 versus ¥857M in FY2021, a compound −1.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥108M in FY2025, compounding +8.7%/yr from FY2021.

300898 screens 49% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé India Limited →

Peer Group

Packaged Foods · 649 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.