Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. (301207) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. ¥6.61, price ¥19.31, upside -65.8%, quality 73 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
55‑month range ¥13.75 – ¥41.00 · fair‑value band ¥6.04 – ¥7.50 · the ¥19.31 price screens above the ¥6.61 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Hualan Biological Vaccine Inc. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of vaccines and genetically engineered biological products in China.
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Hualan Biological Vaccine Inc. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of vaccines and genetically engineered biological products in China. The company's main products include influenza virus split vaccine, quadrivalent influenza virus split vaccine, quadrivalent influenza virus split vaccine (pediatric formulation), H1N1 influenza A virus split vaccine, ACYW135 group meningococcal polysaccharide vaccine, recombinant hepatitis B vaccine (Hansenula polymorpha), group A and C meningococcal polysaccharide vaccine, freeze-dried human rabies vaccine (Vero cells), and adsorbed tetanus vaccine. It also offers products under development, such as freeze-dried Group A and Group C meningococcal conjugate vaccine, adsorbed cell-free tridiphtheria-tetanus combined vaccine, freeze-dried Haemophilus influenzae type b conjugate vaccine, and recombinant zoster vaccine (CHO cells), mRNA influenza vaccines, adsorbed tetanus vaccine, and novel adjuvanted influenza vaccines. In addition, it sells self-produced products. The company was founded in 2005 and is based in Xinxiang, China.
Stock analysis
Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. (301207) currently trades at ¥19.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥6.61, implying the stock looks roughly 192.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥8.32 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the ¥19.31 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.77, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥6.04 (bear) to ¥7.50 (bull), the price of ¥19.31 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. reported revenue of 1.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.8B CNY in FY2021, a compound −10.0%/yr. Reported net income was 183M CNY in FY2025, compounding −26.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 11.6B CNY (≈ $1.7B) · P/E ratio 60.3 · P/S ratio 9.18 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.3200 · Dividend yield 7.3% · Net margin 15.2% · Return on equity 3.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −66%, 301207 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥6.04Fair Value ¥6.61Bull ¥7.50
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−16.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−23.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.44% → 16%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.3% a year for the price.
Compare Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 651 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score73 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−66% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Above median
Return on assets1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)16% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)73% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)7.3% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)60.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.03× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)9.63× · Pricier than median
P/FCF5.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA46.7× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)52· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)13· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 23
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/301207
Frequently asked questions
Is Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. (301207) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥6.61 versus a price of ¥19.31, about −66% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 301207?
Our model-based fair value for Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. is ¥6.61 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥19.31.
What is the quality score of 301207?
Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. (301207)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥6.61 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥6.04, optimistic scenario ¥7.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥6.61, about −66% upside versus a price of ¥19.31 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥6.04, optimistic scenario ¥7.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. (301207)?
Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. pay a dividend?
Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.25% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. (301207)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +15.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -13.1 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 301207 use?
Our models discount Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.62, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. that is +15.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. (301207) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. grew -13.1 % a year. The price currently implies +15.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. (301207) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. (+15.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. (301207)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.99 %: that much free cash flow Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. (301207)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. it is ¥6.61 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of ¥19.31. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 301207 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥19.31, fair value ¥6.61, a gap of about −66% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 301207?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥19.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥6.61). For Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. the two are ¥12.70 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. worth?
The market values Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. at about 11.6B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is ¥19.31; our models calculate a fair value of ¥6.61 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 301207?
Our models span a range for Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc.: cautious scenario ¥6.04, base ¥6.61, optimistic ¥7.50 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price ¥19.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 301207?
Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 60.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥6.61 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 9.6, EV/EBITDA 46.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. (301207)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 3.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 73/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 301207 from its 52-week high?
Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. trades at ¥19.31, about 22% below its 52-week high of ¥24.87 and 22% above the low of ¥15.78 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥6.61 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc.?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price ¥19.31, calculated fair value ¥6.61 (−66%), Quality Score 73/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 301207 calculated?
We run Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥6.61, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. (301207)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥19.31. Our model-based fair value is ¥6.61, about −66% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. right now?
A high-quality business (quality 73/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥7.50). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Key figures of Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. (301207)?
The market capitalisation of Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. is 11.6B CNY (≈ $1.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. (301207)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. is 9.18 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. (301207)?
Earnings per share at Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. are ¥0.3200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 60.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. (301207)?
The dividend yield of Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. is 7.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. (301207)?
The net margin of Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. is 15.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. (301207)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. is 3.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. (301207)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. is 8.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. (301207)?
The operating margin of Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. is 73.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. (301207)?
Revenue at Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. is growing +10.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. (301207)?
Earnings per share at Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. are growing +14.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. (301207) hold?
Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. holds more cash than debt, 323M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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