Hualan Biological Vaccine Inc (301207) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · CN · Market cap 9.9B CNY

A solid business, but screening 68% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• A high-quality business (quality 73/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥7.17). The favourable scenario is already priced in.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

54‑month range ¥13.75 – ¥41.00 · fair‑value band ¥4.52 – ¥7.17 · the ¥18.09 price screens above the ¥5.84 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Hualan Biological Vaccine Inc (301207) currently trades at ¥18.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.84, implying the stock looks roughly 67.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Hualan Biological Vaccine Inc generated revenue of 1.2B CNY at a net margin of 15.6%. Revenue grew 10.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 323M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥4.52 (bear case) to ¥7.17 (bull case); at ¥18.09, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at -68%, 301207 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥8.29) versus Earnings-Based (¥1.77). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Hualan Biological Vaccine Inc. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of vaccines and genetically engineered biological products in China.

Full company description

Hualan Biological Vaccine Inc. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of vaccines and genetically engineered biological products in China. The company's main products include influenza virus split vaccine, quadrivalent influenza virus split vaccine, quadrivalent influenza virus split vaccine (pediatric formulation), H1N1 influenza A virus split vaccine, ACYW135 group meningococcal polysaccharide vaccine, recombinant hepatitis B vaccine (Hansenula polymorpha), group A and C meningococcal polysaccharide vaccine, freeze-dried human rabies vaccine (Vero cells), and adsorbed tetanus vaccine. It also offers products under development, such as freeze-dried Group A and Group C meningococcal conjugate vaccine, adsorbed cell-free tridiphtheria-tetanus combined vaccine, freeze-dried Haemophilus influenzae type b conjugate vaccine, and recombinant zoster vaccine (CHO cells), mRNA influenza vaccines, adsorbed tetanus vaccine, and novel adjuvanted influenza vaccines. In addition, it sells self-produced products. The company was founded in 2005 and is based in Xinxiang, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Hualan Biological Vaccine Inc reported revenue of ¥1.2B in FY2025 versus ¥1.8B in FY2021, a compound −10.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥183M in FY2025, compounding −26.3%/yr from FY2021.

301207 screens 68% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

Peer Group

Biotechnology · 603 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.