Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation (301226) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation ¥5.49, price ¥36.39, upside -84.9%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
54‑month range ¥10.46 – ¥48.08 · fair‑value band ¥5.47 – ¥5.49 · the ¥36.39 price screens above the ¥5.49 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation engages in the research and development, production, and sale of micro motors, fans, and intelligent components in China.
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Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation engages in the research and development, production, and sale of micro motors, fans, and intelligent components in China. The company offers AC motors, brushless DC motors, brush DC motors, precision fans, magnetic pumps, precision gear reducers and transmissions, control components and software products, and other technical solutions; ventilation appliances; and health care appliances. Its products are used in HVAC equipment, air purification, transportation vehicles, cold chain logistics, Information, intelligent manufacturing and logistics, home appliances, embodied intelligence, medical and health care, machinery and other industries. The company also exports to Europe, America, and Japan. Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Changzhou, China.
Stock analysis
Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation (301226) currently trades at ¥36.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.49, 84.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥5.92 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the ¥36.39 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.27, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥5.47 (bear) to ¥5.49 (bull), the price of ¥36.39 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation reported revenue of 508M CNY in FY2025 versus 735M CNY in FY2021, a compound −8.8%/yr. Reported net income was 16.6M CNY in FY2025, compounding −28.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 4.0B CNY (≈ $591M) · P/E ratio 404.3 · P/S ratio 13.2 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0900 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 3.3% · Return on equity 1.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −64% fair-value upside, at −85%, 301226 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥5.47Fair Value ¥5.49Bull ¥5.49
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0227 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−27.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−27.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 3%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+37.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +34.9% a year for the price.
Compare Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronic Components · 634 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−84.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1.8% · Below median
Return on assets0.5% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)3.3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−3.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Electronic Components median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)404.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B4.36× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)7.79× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF77.9× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 59
PAST (return on equity)7· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)3· sector 25
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/301226
Frequently asked questions
Is Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation (301226) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥5.49 versus a price of ¥36.39, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 301226?
Our model-based fair value for Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation is ¥5.49 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥36.39.
What is the quality score of 301226?
Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation (301226)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥5.49 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥5.47, optimistic scenario ¥5.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥5.49, about −85% upside versus a price of ¥36.39 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥5.47, optimistic scenario ¥5.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation (301226)?
Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 508M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation pay a dividend?
Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.16% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation (301226)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +37.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 301226 use?
Our models discount Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.22, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation that is +37.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation (301226) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation grew -1.6 % a year. The price currently implies +37.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation (301226) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation (+37.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation (301226)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.28 %: that much free cash flow Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation (301226)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation it is ¥5.49 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥36.39. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 301226 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥36.39, fair value ¥5.49, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 301226?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥36.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥5.49). For Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation the two are ¥30.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation worth?
The market values Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation at about 4.0B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥36.39; our models calculate a fair value of ¥5.49 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 301226?
Our models span a range for Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation: cautious scenario ¥5.47, base ¥5.49, optimistic ¥5.49 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥36.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 301226?
Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 404.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥5.49 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.4, P/S 7.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation (301226)?
Balance-sheet figures for Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 1.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 301226 from its 52-week high?
Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation trades at ¥36.39, about 24% below its 52-week high of ¥48.08 and 51% above the low of ¥24.16 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥5.49 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Amphenol Corporation, Delta Electronics, Inc, Corning Incorporated, Hon Hai Precision Industry Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥36.39, calculated fair value ¥5.49 (−85%), Quality Score 63/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 301226 calculated?
We run Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥5.49, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation (301226)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was ¥36.39. Our model-based fair value is ¥5.49, about −85% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥5.49). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band (¥5.47 to ¥5.49), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Key figures of Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation (301226)?
The market capitalisation of Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation is 4.0B CNY (≈ $591M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation (301226)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation is 13.2 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation (301226)?
Earnings per share at Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation are ¥0.0900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 404.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation (301226)?
The dividend yield of Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation is 0.2% (payout 66.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation (301226)?
The net margin of Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation is 3.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation (301226)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation is 1.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation (301226)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation (301226)?
The operating margin of Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation is −3.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation (301226)?
Revenue at Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation is growing −2.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation (301226)?
Earnings per share at Changzhou Xiangming Intelligent Drive System Corporation are growing −85.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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