Hubei Hongyuan Pharmaceutical Technology Co (301246) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · CN · Market cap 11.2B CNY

Below-average quality, and screening another 69% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥6.55). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.

Price vs Fair Value (3 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

41‑month range ¥10.70 – ¥41.58 · fair‑value band ¥4.91 – ¥6.55 · the ¥20.88 price screens above the ¥6.55 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.

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Analysis

Hubei Hongyuan Pharmaceutical Technology Co (301246) currently trades at ¥20.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥6.55, implying the stock looks roughly 68.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Hubei Hongyuan Pharmaceutical Technology Co generated revenue of 2.2B CNY at a net margin of 11.5%. Revenue grew 62.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.6%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 43.7. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥4.91 (bear case) to ¥6.55 (bull case); at ¥20.88, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at -69%, 301246 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥7.47) versus Earnings-Based (¥3.25). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Hubei Hongyuan Pharmaceutical Technology Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells pharmaceutical products in China and internationally.

Full company description

Hubei Hongyuan Pharmaceutical Technology Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells pharmaceutical products in China and internationally. The company offers active pharmaceutical ingredients, such as metronidazole, benzoyl metronidazole, dimetrizole, and acyclovir; pharmaceutical intermediates, including imidazole, glyoxylic acid, 2-methyl imidazole, 2-methyl-5-nitroimidazole, sulfate, guanine, diacetyl guanine, and diacetylacyclovir; organic chemical raw materials comprising glyoxal, and oxalic acid; and new energy materials consisting of lithium hexafluorophosphate. It also is involved in the production and sales of triamines, guanine and other products; research and development, production, and sales of pharmaceutical preparations; trading of APIS, pharmaceutical intermediates, organic chemical raw materials, etc.; fluoride salts and other fluorine-containing chemical products; and pharmaceutical wholesale, retail, etc. Hubei Hongyuan Pharmaceutical Technology Co., Ltd. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Huanggang, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Hubei Hongyuan Pharmaceutical Technology Co reported revenue of ¥1.9B in FY2025 versus ¥1.6B in FY2021, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥119M in FY2025, compounding −29.9%/yr from FY2021.

301246 screens 69% overvalued. Compare with Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co →

Peer Group

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 626 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.