Ugreen Group Limited (301606) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Ugreen Group Limited ¥28.42, price ¥57.15, upside -50.3%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
26‑month range ¥24.90 – ¥85.55 · fair‑value band ¥14.90 – ¥52.70 · the ¥57.15 price screens above the ¥28.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Ugreen Group Limited engages in the design, research, production, and sale of consumer electronics products in China and internationally. It offers network-attached storage private cloud, digital charging, acoustic creativity, storage, office peripherals, audio-visual peripherals, and network industrial controls under the UGREEN brand.
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Ugreen Group Limited engages in the design, research, production, and sale of consumer electronics products in China and internationally. It offers network-attached storage private cloud, digital charging, acoustic creativity, storage, office peripherals, audio-visual peripherals, and network industrial controls under the UGREEN brand. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
Stock analysis
Ugreen Group Limited (301606) currently trades at ¥57.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥28.42, implying the stock looks roughly 101.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥78.17 per share, and 3 of the 17 models we run sit above the ¥57.15 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥5.46, and 14 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥14.90 (bear) to ¥52.70 (bull), the price of ¥57.15 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Ugreen Group Limited reported revenue of 9.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound +28.8%/yr. Reported net income was 705M CNY in FY2025, compounding +24.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 26.5B CNY (≈ $4.0B) · P/E ratio 29.9 · P/S ratio 2.22 · EPS (TTM) ¥1.91 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 7.4% · Return on equity 23.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −50%, 301606 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥14.90Fair Value ¥28.42Bull ¥52.70
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.9583 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+53.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.1%
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+14.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 9%
2025 sits 64% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Consumer Electronics · 127 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−50% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)24% · Top 25%
Return on assets13% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)11% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth53% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.0% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Consumer Electronics median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)29.9× · Pricier than median
P/B7.83× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.53× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA27.0× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 13
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 5
PAST (return on equity)94· sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)21· sector 30
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ugreen Group Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/301606
Frequently asked questions
Is Ugreen Group Limited (301606) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥28.42 versus a price of ¥57.15, about −50% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 301606?
Our model-based fair value for Ugreen Group Limited is ¥28.42 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥57.15.
What is the quality score of 301606?
Ugreen Group Limited has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥28.42 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥14.90, optimistic scenario ¥52.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ugreen Group Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥28.42, about −50% upside versus a price of ¥57.15 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥14.90, optimistic scenario ¥52.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
Ugreen Group Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 10.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Ugreen Group Limited pay a dividend?
Ugreen Group Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.05% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ugreen Group Limited it is ¥28.42 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥57.15. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ugreen Group Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 301606 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥57.15, fair value ¥28.42, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 301606?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥57.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥28.42). For Ugreen Group Limited the two are ¥28.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ugreen Group Limited worth?
The market values Ugreen Group Limited at about 26.5B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥57.15; our models calculate a fair value of ¥28.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 301606?
Our models span a range for Ugreen Group Limited: cautious scenario ¥14.90, base ¥28.42, optimistic ¥52.70 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥57.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 301606?
Ugreen Group Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥28.42 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 7.8, P/S 2.5, EV/EBITDA 27.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ugreen Group Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 23.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 301606 from its 52-week high?
Ugreen Group Limited trades at ¥57.15, about 33% below its 52-week high of ¥85.55 and 17% above the low of ¥48.94 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥28.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ugreen Group Limited?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Samsung Electronics Co, Sony Group, Xiaomi Corporation, LG Electronics Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ugreen Group Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥57.15, calculated fair value ¥28.42 (−50%), Quality Score 56/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 301606 calculated?
We run Ugreen Group Limited through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥28.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Ugreen Group Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥57.15. Our model-based fair value is ¥28.42, about −50% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ugreen Group Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥52.70). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (¥14.90 to ¥52.70). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Ugreen Group Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
The market capitalisation of Ugreen Group Limited is 26.5B CNY (≈ $4.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ugreen Group Limited is 2.22 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
Earnings per share at Ugreen Group Limited are ¥1.91 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
The dividend yield of Ugreen Group Limited is 1.0% (payout 31.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
The net margin of Ugreen Group Limited is 7.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ugreen Group Limited is 23.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ugreen Group Limited is 17.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
The operating margin of Ugreen Group Limited is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
Revenue at Ugreen Group Limited is growing +53.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +35.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
Earnings per share at Ugreen Group Limited are growing +58.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ugreen Group Limited (301606) generate?
The free cash flow of Ugreen Group Limited is −82.6M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Ugreen Group Limited (301606) hold?
Ugreen Group Limited holds more cash than debt, 1.0B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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