Ugreen Group Limited (301606) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ugreen Group Limited stock ¥29.76, price ¥58.66, that is 49.3% below the price, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 17 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
27‑month range ¥24.90 – ¥85.55 · fair‑value band ¥15.32 – ¥58.81 · the ¥58.66 price screens above the ¥29.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Ugreen Group Limited engages in the design, research, production, and sale of consumer electronics products in China and internationally.
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It offers network-attached storage private cloud, digital charging, acoustic creativity, storage, office peripherals, audio-visual peripherals, and network industrial controls under the UGREEN brand. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
Stock analysis
Ugreen Group Limited (301606) currently trades at ¥58.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥29.76, 49% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥78.17 per share, and 2 of the 17 models we run sit above the ¥58.66 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥7.46, and 15 of the 17 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥15.32 (bear) to ¥58.81 (bull), the price of ¥58.66 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Ugreen Group Limited reported revenue of 9.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound +28.8%/yr. Reported net income was 705M CNY in FY2025, compounding +24.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 24.3B CNY (≈ $3.7B) Mid · P/E ratio 28.2 · P/S ratio 2.13 · EPS (TTM) ¥2.08 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 7.5% · Return on equity 26.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 61 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at −49%, 301606 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥15.32Fair Value ¥29.76Bull¥58.81
Price ¥58.66 · Downside -49.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥1.27 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+53.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.1%
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+14.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 9%
2025 sits 64% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Consumer Electronics · 114 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−49.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)26.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets14.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)7.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)6.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)48.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.0% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Consumer Electronics median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)28.2× · Pricier than median
P/B7.20× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.13× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA22.2× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 27
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)20· sector 33
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ugreen Group Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/301606
Frequently asked questions
Is Ugreen Group Limited (301606) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥29.76 versus a price of ¥58.66, about 49% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 301606?
Our model-based fair value for Ugreen Group Limited is ¥29.76 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥58.66.
What is the quality score of 301606?
Ugreen Group Limited has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥29.76 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥15.32, optimistic scenario ¥58.81. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ugreen Group Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥29.76, about 49% lower versus a price of ¥58.66 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥15.32, optimistic scenario ¥58.81. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
Ugreen Group Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 11.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Ugreen Group Limited pay a dividend?
Ugreen Group Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 1.02% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Ugreen Group Limited (301606) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Ugreen Group Limited pays a dividend of ¥0.6 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.0%. The last ex-dividend date was May 15, 2026. The payout ratio is 28.8% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ugreen Group Limited it is ¥29.76 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of ¥58.66. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Ugreen Group Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, 301606 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥58.66, fair value ¥29.76, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 301606?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥58.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥29.76). For Ugreen Group Limited the two are ¥28.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ugreen Group Limited worth?
The market values Ugreen Group Limited at about 24.3B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is ¥58.66; our models calculate a fair value of ¥29.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 301606?
Our models span a range for Ugreen Group Limited: cautious scenario ¥15.32, base ¥29.76, optimistic ¥58.81 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price ¥58.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 301606?
Ugreen Group Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.2 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥29.76 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 7.2, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 22.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ugreen Group Limited (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 26.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 301606 from its 52-week high?
Ugreen Group Limited trades at ¥58.66, about 31% below its 52-week high of ¥85.55 and 38% above the low of ¥42.42 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥29.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ugreen Group Limited?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Samsung Electronics Co, Sony Group, Xiaomi Corporation, LG Electronics Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ugreen Group Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price ¥58.66, calculated fair value ¥29.76 (−49%), Quality Score 57/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 301606 calculated?
We run Ugreen Group Limited through 17 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥29.76 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Ugreen Group Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥58.66. Our model-based fair value is ¥29.76, about 49% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ugreen Group Limited right now?
The model range is unusually wide (¥15.32 to ¥58.81). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Ugreen Group Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
The market capitalisation of Ugreen Group Limited is 24.3B CNY (≈ $3.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ugreen Group Limited is 2.13 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
Earnings per share at Ugreen Group Limited are ¥2.08 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
The dividend yield of Ugreen Group Limited is 1.0% (payout 28.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
The net margin of Ugreen Group Limited is 7.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ugreen Group Limited is 26.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ugreen Group Limited is 17.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
The operating margin of Ugreen Group Limited is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
Revenue at Ugreen Group Limited is growing +48.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +35.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ugreen Group Limited (301606)?
Earnings per share at Ugreen Group Limited are growing +55.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ugreen Group Limited (301606) generate?
The free cash flow of Ugreen Group Limited is −82.6M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Ugreen Group Limited (301606) hold?
Ugreen Group Limited holds more cash than debt, 1.0B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026