Ugreen Group (301606) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · CN · Market cap 26.5B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 9, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 32 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 9, 2026, revised from ¥47.55 to ¥42.12 (−11.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −6.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 20% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (¥21.14 to ¥64.94). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (2 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
24‑month range ¥24.90 – ¥85.55 · fair‑value band ¥21.14 – ¥64.94 · the ¥52.86 price screens above the ¥42.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
Analysis
Ugreen Group (301606) currently trades at ¥52.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥42.12, implying the stock looks roughly 20.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Ugreen Group generated revenue of 10.5B CNY at a net margin of 7.6%. Revenue grew 53.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 23.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 1.0B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥21.14 (bear case) to ¥64.94 (bull case); at ¥52.86, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -16% fair-value upside, at -20%, 301606 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥78.17) versus Asset-Based (¥5.46). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Ugreen Group Limited engages in the design, research, production, and sale of consumer electronics products in China and internationally. It offers network-attached storage private cloud, digital charging, acoustic creativity, storage, office peripherals, audio-visual peripherals, and network industrial controls under the UGREEN brand.
Full company description
Ugreen Group Limited engages in the design, research, production, and sale of consumer electronics products in China and internationally. It offers network-attached storage private cloud, digital charging, acoustic creativity, storage, office peripherals, audio-visual peripherals, and network industrial controls under the UGREEN brand. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ugreen Group reported revenue of ¥9.5B in FY2025 versus ¥3.4B in FY2021, a compound +28.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥705M in FY2025, compounding +24.1%/yr from FY2021.
301606 screens 20% overvalued. Compare with Apple Inc →
Peer Group
Consumer Electronics · 129 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Consumer Electronics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Consumer Electronics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apple Inc AAPL | $313.33 | $122.91 | -61% |
| Samsung Electronics Co 005930 | 255,000 KRW | 138,019 KRW | -46% |
| Sony Group SONYN | 366.00 MXN | 468.94 MXN | +28% |
| Xiaomi Corporation 1810 | HK$26.88 | HK$39.84 | +48% |
| LG Electronics Inc 066570 | 179,000 KRW | 101,531 KRW | -43% |
| Sharetronic Data Technology Co 300857 | ¥277.96 | ¥35.89 | -87% |
| Huaqin Co 603296 | ¥78.20 | ¥65.69 | -16% |
| Goertek Inc 002241 | ¥22.25 | ¥18.86 | -15% |
| LG Corp 003550 | 102,400 KRW | 93,881 KRW | -8% |
| Anker Innovations Limited 300866 | ¥105.92 | ¥78.52 | -26% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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