Alliance Material Co., Ltd. (3595) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Alliance Material Co., Ltd. TWD 165, price TWD 1,625, upside -89.8%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationQuality growthStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value 165.34 TWD · Strongly overvalued (−90%)
✓Quality 68/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y −2.5 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 33.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers(7/11)
✓Wide moat91/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 10.56 TWD – 2,540 TWD · fair‑value band 105.60 TWD – 257.92 TWD · the 1,625 TWD price screens above the 165.34 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Alliance Material Co., Ltd. provides optical material cutting products in Taiwan. The company also engages in research, develops, manufactures, and sells precision industrial adhesive insulation products, cutting-edge optoelectronic materials, semiconductor process materials, and communication components.
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Alliance Material Co., Ltd. provides optical material cutting products in Taiwan. The company also engages in research, develops, manufactures, and sells precision industrial adhesive insulation products, cutting-edge optoelectronic materials, semiconductor process materials, and communication components. In addition, the company offers cutting processing service, light- shielding and reflection tape, functional products, semiconductor products, protection film, foam tape, and optical glue. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Zhubei, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Alliance Material Co., Ltd. (3595) currently trades at 1,625 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 165.34 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 883.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 107.42 TWD per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the 1,625 TWD price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 41.06 TWD, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 105.60 TWD (bear) to 257.92 TWD (bull), the price of 1,625 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Alliance Material Co., Ltd. reported revenue of 499M TWD in FY2025 versus 568M TWD in FY2021, a compound −3.2%/yr. Reported net income was 145M TWD in FY2025, compounding +28.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 85.0B TWD (≈ $2.7B) · P/E ratio 371.9 · EPS (TTM) 4.37 TWD · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin 29.0% · Return on equity 27.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.0% · Operating margin 44.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 565% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −65% fair-value upside, at −90%, 3595 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (5.11 TWD to 138.23 TWD). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear 105.60 TWDFair Value 165.34 TWDBull 257.92 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (3.28 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+199.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−2.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.22% vs 22%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 35%
2025 sits 606% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 13.0%/yr over ~7Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+67.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +64.9% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronic Components · 644 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−90% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)34% · Top 25%
Return on assets18% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)33% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)39% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth103% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Electronic Components median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)371.9× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF16.6× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 40
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 24
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alliance Material Co., Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3595
Frequently asked questions
Is Alliance Material Co., Ltd. (3595) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 165.34 TWD versus a price of 1,625 TWD, about −90% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 3595?
Our model-based fair value for Alliance Material Co., Ltd. is 165.34 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1,625 TWD.
What is the quality score of 3595?
Alliance Material Co., Ltd. has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alliance Material Co., Ltd. (3595)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 165.34 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 105.60 TWD, optimistic scenario 257.92 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alliance Material Co., Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 165.34 TWD, about −90% upside versus a price of 1,625 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 105.60 TWD, optimistic scenario 257.92 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alliance Material Co., Ltd. (3595)?
Alliance Material Co., Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 499M TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Alliance Material Co., Ltd. pay a dividend?
Alliance Material Co., Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.01% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alliance Material Co., Ltd. (3595)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alliance Material Co., Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +67.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 3595 use?
Our models discount Alliance Material Co., Ltd. at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.87, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alliance Material Co., Ltd. that is +67.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alliance Material Co., Ltd. (3595) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alliance Material Co., Ltd. grew -2.5 % a year. The price currently implies +67.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alliance Material Co., Ltd. (3595) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alliance Material Co., Ltd. (+67.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alliance Material Co., Ltd. (3595)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.29 %: that much free cash flow Alliance Material Co., Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alliance Material Co., Ltd. (3595)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alliance Material Co., Ltd. it is 165.34 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 1,625 TWD. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alliance Material Co., Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 3595 trades above its calculated fair value: price 1,625 TWD, fair value 165.34 TWD, a gap of about −90% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3595?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1,625 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (165.34 TWD). For Alliance Material Co., Ltd. the two are 1,460 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alliance Material Co., Ltd. worth?
The market values Alliance Material Co., Ltd. at about 85.0B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 1,625 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 165.34 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3595?
Our models span a range for Alliance Material Co., Ltd.: cautious scenario 105.60 TWD, base 165.34 TWD, optimistic 257.92 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 1,625 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 3595?
Alliance Material Co., Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 371.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 165.34 TWD is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alliance Material Co., Ltd. (3595)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alliance Material Co., Ltd. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 33.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3595 from its 52-week high?
Alliance Material Co., Ltd. trades at 1,625 TWD, about 36% below its 52-week high of 2,540 TWD and 565% above the low of 244.46 TWD (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 165.34 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alliance Material Co., Ltd.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Amphenol Corporation, Delta Electronics, Inc, Corning Incorporated, Luxshare Precision Industry Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alliance Material Co., Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 1,625 TWD, calculated fair value 165.34 TWD (−90%), Quality Score 68/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3595 calculated?
We run Alliance Material Co., Ltd. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 165.34 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Alliance Material Co., Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alliance Material Co., Ltd. (3595)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 1,625 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 165.34 TWD, about −90% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alliance Material Co., Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (257.92 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (105.60 TWD to 257.92 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Alliance Material Co., Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Alliance Material Co., Ltd. (3595)?
The market capitalisation of Alliance Material Co., Ltd. is 85.0B TWD (≈ $2.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Alliance Material Co., Ltd. (3595)?
Earnings per share at Alliance Material Co., Ltd. are 4.37 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 371.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alliance Material Co., Ltd. (3595)?
The dividend yield of Alliance Material Co., Ltd. is 0.0% (payout 4.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alliance Material Co., Ltd. (3595)?
The net margin of Alliance Material Co., Ltd. is 29.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alliance Material Co., Ltd. (3595)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alliance Material Co., Ltd. is 27.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alliance Material Co., Ltd. (3595)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alliance Material Co., Ltd. is 6.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alliance Material Co., Ltd. (3595)?
The operating margin of Alliance Material Co., Ltd. is 44.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alliance Material Co., Ltd. (3595)?
Revenue at Alliance Material Co., Ltd. is growing +250% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Alliance Material Co., Ltd. (3595) carry?
The net debt of Alliance Material Co., Ltd. is 112M TWD (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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