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Zhongzhi Pharm Hldg Ltd (3737) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · HK · Market cap HK$574M

ZP Zhongzhi Pharm Hldg Ltd 3737 · HK
PriceHK$0.6500
Fair ValueHK$0.3500
Upside-46.2%
Quality55/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 1.0% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
Narrow moat 16/100
Evidence: High Range HK$0.2600 – HK$0.4400 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Share price −5.8% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 46% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.4400). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$1.38 HK$0.5200 Fair Value HK$0.3500 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.5200 – HK$1.38 · fair‑value band HK$0.2600 – HK$0.4400 · the HK$0.6500 price screens above the HK$0.3500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Zhongzhi Pharm Hldg Ltd (3737) currently trades at HK$0.6500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3500, implying the stock looks roughly 46.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Zhongzhi Pharm Hldg Ltd generated revenue of HK$1.7B at a net margin of 1.0%. Revenue declined 23.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.6%. Net debt stands at HK$26.1M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.2600 (bear case) to HK$0.4400 (bull case); at HK$0.6500, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at -46%, 3737 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$1.00 HK$1.39 HK$1.90 80
Residual Income HK$0.8600 HK$0.8000 HK$0.5700 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.5400 HK$0.6300 HK$0.7400 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$1.00 HK$1.41 HK$1.99 38
Owner Earnings HK$1.15 HK$1.64 HK$2.32 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.5400 HK$0.6100 HK$0.6900 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.17 HK$1.82 HK$2.60 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$0.6900 HK$0.8900 HK$1.11 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.7200 HK$0.8300 HK$0.9600 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.09 HK$1.61 HK$2.33 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$0.8100 HK$1.01 HK$1.26 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.1400 HK$0.5000 HK$0.6700 54
Lynch FV HK$0.1200 HK$0.1700 HK$0.2200 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.1200 HK$0.1700 HK$0.2200 46
EPV HK$0.2300 HK$0.2300 HK$0.2400 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.3500 HK$0.6200 HK$0.8600 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.3500 HK$0.5700 HK$0.6700 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.3200 HK$0.4300 HK$0.5400 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.2600 HK$0.3500 HK$0.4400 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.2600 HK$0.3500 HK$0.4400 55
EV/EBIT HK$0.2700 HK$0.2900 HK$0.3200 53
EV/EBITDA HK$1.41 HK$1.81 HK$2.21 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.2500 HK$0.2700 HK$0.2900 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.6500 HK$0.8700 HK$1.30 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$1.00 HK$1.39 HK$1.90 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.5400 HK$0.6300 HK$0.7400 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.8600 HK$0.8000 HK$0.5700 76
ROIC Compounder HK$0.2300 HK$0.2300 HK$0.2400 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.2300 HK$0.3200 HK$0.4200 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$1.01) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.1700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$1.7B
Revenue growth (YoY) -23.9%
Net margin 1.0%
Return on equity 1.6%
Free cash flow HK$69.9M FY2025
P/E ratio 34.0 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 0.6%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0100
EPS growth (YoY) -7.9%
Net debt HK$26.1M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31

Profitability 44
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 5
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 54
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 58
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 24
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 21
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 96
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Zhongzhi Pharmaceutical Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of pharmaceutical products in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through two segments Pharmaceutical Manufacturing and Operation of Chain Pharmacies segments.

Full company description

Zhongzhi Pharmaceutical Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of pharmaceutical products in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through two segments Pharmaceutical Manufacturing and Operation of Chain Pharmacies segments. It also provides Chinese patent medicines and decoction pieces under the Zeus, Liumian, and Caojinghua brand names. In addition, the company manufactures and sells food and Chinese herbs; offers detection and testing and property management. Further, the company engages in the wholesale of pharmaceutical products; and provision of traditional Chinese medicine service. Zhongzhi Pharmaceutical Holdings Limited was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Zhongshan, the People's Republic of China. Zhongzhi Pharmaceutical Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Crystal Talent Investment Group Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Zhongzhi Pharm Hldg Ltd reported revenue of HK$1.7B in FY2025 versus HK$1.7B in FY2021, a compound −0.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$17.3M in FY2025, compounding −24.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$1.7B
Latest YoY
−21.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.6%
Avg. growth/yr (13Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.7%
Revenue −0.1%/yr
FY21 HK$1.7B
FY22 HK$1.8B
FY23 HK$2.0B
FY24 HK$2.2B
FY25 HK$1.7B
Net income −24.1%/yr
FY21 HK$52.1M
FY22 HK$106M
FY23 HK$163M
FY24 HK$95.2M
FY25 HK$17.3M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +0.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share +10.6 pp

of which total revenue +12.9 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.3 pp

EBIT margin −9.3 pp
Tax rate −0.5 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

3737 screens 46% overvalued. Compare with Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co →

Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
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Zhongzhi Pharm Hldg Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.3500 −46%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zhongzhi Pharm Hldg Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3737

Peer Group

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 622 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside −46% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Below median
Return on assets -0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Revenue growth -24% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.5% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.03× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 34.0× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.52× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.33× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 7.4× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 7
FUTURE 0 · sector 21
PAST 6 · sector 25
HEALTH 98 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 32

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276 ¥53.76 ¥25.94 -52%
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA ₹1,944 ₹989.50 -49%
Divi's Laboratories Limited DIVISLAB ₹8,500 ₹1,932 -77%
Torrent Pharmaceuticals Limited TORNTPHARM ₹4,915 ₹1,163 -76%
PharmaEssentia Corporation 6446 1,440 TWD 233.93 TWD -84%
Cipla Limited CIPLA ₹1,463 ₹1,001 -32%
Zydus Lifesciences Limited ZYDUSLIFE ₹1,167 ₹703.32 -40%
Lupin Limited LUPIN ₹2,281 ₹2,477 +9%
Mankind Pharma Limited MANKIND ₹2,433 ₹983.11 -60%
Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited DRREDDY ₹1,200 ₹874.79 -27%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Zhongzhi Pharm Hldg Ltd (3737) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.3500 versus a price of HK$0.6500, about −46% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 3737?
Our model-based fair value for Zhongzhi Pharm Hldg Ltd is HK$0.3500 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.6500.
What is the quality score of 3737?
Zhongzhi Pharm Hldg Ltd has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Zhongzhi Pharm Hldg Ltd (3737)?
Zhongzhi Pharm Hldg Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 3737?
The net profit margin of Zhongzhi Pharm Hldg Ltd is about 1.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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