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China Hanking Holdings Ltd (3788) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of China Hanking Holdings Ltd HK$1.28, price HK$3.12, upside -59.0%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Basic Materials · HK · ISIN KYG2115G1055

CH Thin data Sep 27, 2026

China Hanking Holdings Ltd

3788 · HK

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value HK$1.28 · Strongly overvalued (−59.0%)
!Quality 47/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue YoY +3.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.7% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
!Narrow moat 44/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 14 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$5.21 HK$0.5851 Fair Value HK$1.28 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.5851 – HK$5.21 · fair‑value band HK$0.7100 – HK$1.38 · the HK$3.12 price screens above the HK$1.28 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Hanking Gold International Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, mining, processing, smelting, and sale of mineral resources in the People's Republic of China, Australia, and Japan. It also operates Mt Bundy Gold Project in Northern Australia and Cygnet Gold Project located in Western Australia.

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Hanking Gold International Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, mining, processing, smelting, and sale of mineral resources in the People's Republic of China, Australia, and Japan. It also operates Mt Bundy Gold Project in Northern Australia and Cygnet Gold Project located in Western Australia. In addition, the company engages in the sale of agricultural and forestry products; and manufacture and sale of green building materials. Further, it offers leasing services; travel and accommodation services; and technical development and technical consultation services. The company was formerly known as China Hanking Holdings Limited and changed its name to Hanking Gold International Limited in February 2026. Hanking Gold International Limited was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Shenyang, China.

Stock analysis

China Hanking Holdings Ltd (3788) currently trades at HK$3.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.28, 59.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$1.56 per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the HK$3.12 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.2200, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$0.7100 (bear) to HK$1.38 (bull), the price of HK$3.12 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

China Hanking Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 2.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound −4.9%/yr. Reported net income was 172M CNY in FY2025, compounding −28.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$6.1B (≈ $771M) · P/E ratio 22.2 · P/S ratio 1.49 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0500 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 6.7% · Return on equity 10.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −59%, 3788 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.7100 Fair Value HK$1.28 Bull HK$1.38
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0375 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings HK$1.18 HK$1.56 HK$2.08 78
Residual Income HK$0.7200 HK$0.7700 HK$0.8700 76
EPV HK$1.20 HK$1.31 HK$1.41 74
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings HK$1.18 HK$1.56 HK$2.08 78
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.5600 HK$1.80 HK$2.40 64
Lynch FV HK$0.4000 HK$0.5700 HK$0.7400 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.4000 HK$0.5700 HK$0.7400 57
EPV HK$1.20 HK$1.31 HK$1.41 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.1400 HK$0.2500 HK$0.3500 68
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.1400 HK$0.2200 HK$0.2700 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$1.05 HK$1.40 HK$1.75 63
P/S Multiple HK$1.05 HK$1.40 HK$1.75 58
P/B Multiple HK$1.05 HK$1.40 HK$1.75 55
EV/EBIT HK$2.03 HK$2.59 HK$3.15 66
EV/EBITDA HK$2.11 HK$2.69 HK$3.28 67
EV/Revenue HK$1.64 HK$2.19 HK$2.74 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.4400 HK$0.5900 HK$0.8800 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.7200 HK$0.7700 HK$0.8700 76
ROIC Compounder HK$1.24 HK$1.44 HK$1.65 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.9000 HK$1.29 HK$1.67 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 35
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 11
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 67
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 58
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 38
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 42
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 25
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 76
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 32/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−13.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−14.4% vs 33.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 13%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

3788 screens overvalued: fair value 59% below the price. Compare with Saudi Arabian Mining Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 445 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 47 · Above median
Fair Value upside −59.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 10.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets 5.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 6.7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 11.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −5.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.07× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 22.2× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.81× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.02× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 9.4× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 40
PAST (return on equity)40 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)97 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)14 · sector 31

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Korea Zinc Company 010130 1,116,000 KRW 646,063 KRW −42%
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Western Mining Co 601168 ¥35.19 ¥38.71 +10%
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd IVN C$12.06 C$4.46 −63%
Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 ¥46.90 ¥23.62 −50%
Vedanta Limited VEDL ₹266.35 ₹655.92 +146%

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China Hanking Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
HK$1.28 −59%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Hanking Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3788

Frequently asked questions

Is China Hanking Holdings Ltd (3788) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.28 versus a price of HK$3.12, about −59% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 3788?
Our model-based fair value for China Hanking Holdings Ltd is HK$1.28 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$3.12.
What is the quality score of 3788?
China Hanking Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Hanking Holdings Ltd (3788)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.28 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.7100, optimistic scenario HK$1.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Hanking Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.28, about −59% upside versus a price of HK$3.12 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.7100, optimistic scenario HK$1.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Hanking Holdings Ltd (3788)?
China Hanking Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does China Hanking Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
China Hanking Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.70% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Hanking Holdings Ltd (3788)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Hanking Holdings Ltd it is HK$1.28 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$3.12. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Hanking Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 3788 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$3.12, fair value HK$1.28, a gap of about −59% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3788?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$3.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.28). For China Hanking Holdings Ltd the two are HK$1.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Hanking Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values China Hanking Holdings Ltd at about HK$6.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$3.12; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3788?
Our models span a range for China Hanking Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.7100, base HK$1.28, optimistic HK$1.38 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$3.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 3788?
China Hanking Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.2 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$1.28 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.8, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 9.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Hanking Holdings Ltd (3788)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Hanking Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 10.0%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3788 from its 52-week high?
China Hanking Holdings Ltd trades at HK$3.12, about 40% below its 52-week high of HK$5.21 and 45% above the low of HK$2.15 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Hanking Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Hanking Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$3.12, calculated fair value HK$1.28 (−59%), Quality Score 47/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3788 calculated?
We run China Hanking Holdings Ltd through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. China Hanking Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Hanking Holdings Ltd (3788)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$3.12. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.28, about −59% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Hanking Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$1.38). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.7100 to HK$1.38) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of China Hanking Holdings Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of China Hanking Holdings Ltd (3788)?
The market capitalisation of China Hanking Holdings Ltd is HK$6.1B (≈ $771M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Hanking Holdings Ltd (3788)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Hanking Holdings Ltd is 1.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Hanking Holdings Ltd (3788)?
Earnings per share at China Hanking Holdings Ltd are HK$0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Hanking Holdings Ltd (3788)?
The dividend yield of China Hanking Holdings Ltd is 0.7% (payout 43.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Hanking Holdings Ltd (3788)?
The net margin of China Hanking Holdings Ltd is 6.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Hanking Holdings Ltd (3788)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Hanking Holdings Ltd is 10.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Hanking Holdings Ltd (3788)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Hanking Holdings Ltd is 10.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Hanking Holdings Ltd (3788)?
The operating margin of China Hanking Holdings Ltd is 11.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Hanking Holdings Ltd (3788)?
Revenue at China Hanking Holdings Ltd is growing −5.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Hanking Holdings Ltd (3788)?
Earnings per share at China Hanking Holdings Ltd are growing −9.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Hanking Holdings Ltd (3788) generate?
The free cash flow of China Hanking Holdings Ltd is −76.6M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Hanking Holdings Ltd (3788) carry?
The net debt of China Hanking Holdings Ltd is 267M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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