3788 (3788) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · Market cap HK$5.4B

3 3788 3788 · HK

PriceHK$2.24

Fair ValueHK$1.38

Upside-38.4%

Quality43/100

Watch 3788 for free — get notified when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free

Evidence: High Range HK$0.8900 – HK$1.65

Fair value as of: Jul 2, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated today

Share price −22.8% over the past month.

Price vs Fair Value (12 months)

12‑month range HK$1.97 – HK$5.21 · fair‑value band HK$0.8900 – HK$1.65 · the HK$2.24 price screens above the HK$1.38 fair value. As of Jul 2, 2026.

✦ Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

3788 (3788) currently trades at HK$2.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.38 — implying the stock looks roughly 38.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, 3788 generated revenue of HK$2.6B at a net margin of 6.7%. Revenue declined 5.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.0%. Net debt stands at HK$267M. Fundamentals as of Jul 2, 2026

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$2.6B

Revenue growth (YoY) -5.0%

Net margin 6.7%

Return on equity 10.0%

Free cash flow −HK$76.6M FY2025

P/E ratio 22.2

More key figures

Operating margin 11.4%

EPS (TTM) HK$0.0500

EPS growth (YoY) -9.5%

Net debt HK$267M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

3788 reported revenue of HK$2.6B in FY2025 versus HK$3.1B in FY2021, a compound −4.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$172M in FY2025, compounding −28.5%/yr from FY2021.

Revenue −4.9%/yr

FY21 HK$3.1B

FY22 HK$2.6B

FY23 HK$3.0B

FY24 HK$2.5B

FY25 HK$2.6B

Net income −28.5%/yr

FY21 HK$659M

FY22 −HK$51.3M

FY23 HK$152M

FY24 HK$181M

FY25 HK$172M

Is 3788 fairly valued? → Check now

Similar stocks

6 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 2, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
BHP Group BHP	$85.78	$60.26	-30%
Rio Tinto Group RTNTF	$129.57	$76.59	-41%
RIO RIO	A$184.58	A$454.52	+146%
Grupo México, S.A. GMBXF	$11.89	$9.58	-19%
CMOC Group CMCLY	$148.88	$119.76	-20%
Vale S.A VALEN	260.19 MXN	124.80 MXN	-52%

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Basic Materials stocks →

All undervalued stocks Technology Financial Services Healthcare Consumer Cyclical Consumer Defensive Communication Services Industrials Energy Basic Materials Real Estate Utilities Deeply Undervalued Stocks Undervalued Blue-Chip Stocks Undervalued Small-Cap Stocks

Frequently asked questions

Is 3788 (3788) undervalued?

As of Jul 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.38 versus a price of HK$2.24 — about −38% (overvalued). Model-based estimate, not financial advice.

What is the fair value of 3788?

Our model-based fair value for 3788 is HK$1.38 (as of Jul 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$2.24.

What is the quality score of 3788?

3788 has a Quality Score of 43/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.

What is the revenue of 3788 (3788)?

3788 reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$2.6B (latest available figure, as of Jul 2, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 3788?

The net profit margin of 3788 is about 6.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.