China Hanking Holdings Ltd (3788) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$5.4B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price +43.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 57% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$1.66). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$0.9000 to HK$1.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.5851 – HK$5.21 · fair‑value band HK$0.9000 – HK$1.66 · the HK$3.25 price screens above the HK$1.39 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
China Hanking Holdings Ltd (3788) currently trades at HK$3.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.39, implying the stock looks roughly 57.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, China Hanking Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$2.6B at a net margin of 6.7%. Revenue declined 5.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.0%. Net debt stands at HK$267M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.9000 (bear case) to HK$1.66 (bull case); at HK$3.25, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -42% fair-value upside, at -57%, 3788 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$1.24) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.2200). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hanking Gold International Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, mining, processing, smelting, and sale of mineral resources in the People's Republic of China, Australia, and Japan. It also operates Mt Bundy Gold Project in Northern Australia and Cygnet Gold Project located in Western Australia.
Full company description
Hanking Gold International Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, mining, processing, smelting, and sale of mineral resources in the People's Republic of China, Australia, and Japan. It also operates Mt Bundy Gold Project in Northern Australia and Cygnet Gold Project located in Western Australia. In addition, the company engages in the sale of agricultural and forestry products; and manufacture and sale of green building materials. Further, it offers leasing services; travel and accommodation services; and technical development and technical consultation services. The company was formerly known as China Hanking Holdings Limited and changed its name to Hanking Gold International Limited in February 2026. Hanking Gold International Limited was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Shenyang, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Hanking Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$2.6B in FY2025 versus HK$3.1B in FY2021, a compound −4.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$172M in FY2025, compounding −28.5%/yr from FY2021.
3788 screens 57% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 480 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 745.46 MXN | -48% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$179.43 | A$81.76 | -54% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 222.38 MXN | 172.99 MXN | -22% |
| Vale S.A VALEN | 250.00 MXN | 139.41 MXN | -44% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥19.00 | ¥19.80 | +4% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥70.43 | ¥9.55 | -86% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹584.60 | ₹501.98 | -14% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥41.02 | ¥10.59 | -74% |
| Boliden AB BOL | kr 527.80 | kr 461.48 | -13% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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