China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd (3818) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd HK$0.61, price HK$0.29, upside +114.0%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1973 – HK$1.17 · fair‑value band HK$0.4700 – HK$0.8800 · the HK$0.2850 price screens below the HK$0.6100 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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China Dongxiang (Group) Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, and sale of sport-related apparel, footwear, and accessories in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company offers its products under the Kappa and Phenix brands.
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China Dongxiang (Group) Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, and sale of sport-related apparel, footwear, and accessories in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company offers its products under the Kappa and Phenix brands. It also investments in different kinds of financial assets or treasury products; design and sales of children's clothing; offers accommodation, tourism, and design and consulting services; engages in the hotel management and tourism; development and operation real estate properties; and owns trademark, as well as retail sales of sports-related products, apparel and accessories, and imports and exports activities. In addition, the company operates a chain of retail shops and outlets for selling sport apparel, footwear, and accessories, as well as through online. China Dongxiang (Group) Co., Ltd. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd (3818) currently trades at HK$0.2850, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.6100, implying the stock looks roughly 53.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$0.9900 per share, and 12 of the 12 models we run sit above the HK$0.2850 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.3400, and 0 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.4700 (bear) to HK$0.8800 (bull), the price of HK$0.2850 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$1.7B in FY2025 versus HK$1.9B in FY2021, a compound −3.6%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$152M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$1.7B (≈ $214M) · P/S ratio 1.04 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0300 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin −9.2% · Return on equity −1.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.3% · Operating margin −41.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 114%, 3818 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.4700Fair Value HK$0.6100Bull HK$0.8800
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0150 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.2% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+58.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−3.6% (2020) → −2.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Apparel Manufacturing · 216 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside+114.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−9.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−41.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.5% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Apparel Manufacturing median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3818
Frequently asked questions
Is China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd (3818) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.6100 versus a price of HK$0.2850, about +114% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 3818?
Our model-based fair value for China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd is HK$0.6100 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.2850.
What is the quality score of 3818?
China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd (3818)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.6100 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.4700, optimistic scenario HK$0.8800. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.6100, about +114% upside versus a price of HK$0.2850 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.4700, optimistic scenario HK$0.8800. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd (3818)?
China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd pay a dividend?
China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.51% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd (3818)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.1 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 3818 use?
Our models discount China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd at 12.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.80, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd (3818) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd grew -2.1 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd (3818) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd (3818)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.99 %: that much free cash flow China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd (3818)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd it is HK$0.6100 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.2850. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 3818 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.2850, fair value HK$0.6100, a gap of about +114% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3818?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.2850); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.6100). For China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd the two are HK$0.3250 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd worth?
The market values China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd at about HK$1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.2850; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.6100 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3818?
Our models span a range for China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.4700, base HK$0.6100, optimistic HK$0.8800 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.2850). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 3818?
The PEG ratio of China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd is 0.76 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd (3818)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −1.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3818 from its 52-week high?
China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd trades at HK$0.2850, about 46% below its 52-week high of HK$0.5274 and 10% above the low of HK$0.2600 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.6100 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Ralph Lauren Corporation, Moncler S.p.A, LPP SA, Levi Strauss & Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.2850, calculated fair value HK$0.6100 (+114%), Quality Score 51/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3818 calculated?
We run China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.6100, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd currently trades 53 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd (3818)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.2850. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.6100, about +114% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.4700). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.4700 to HK$0.8800) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd (3818)?
The market capitalisation of China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd is HK$1.7B (≈ $214M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd (3818)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd is 1.04 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd (3818)?
Earnings per share at China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd are HK$0.0300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd (3818)?
The dividend yield of China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd is 3.5% (payout 33.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd (3818)?
The net margin of China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd is −9.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd (3818)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd is −1.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd (3818)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd is −4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd (3818)?
The operating margin of China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd is −41.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd (3818)?
Revenue at China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd is growing +3.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd (3818)?
Earnings per share at China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd are growing +48.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd (3818) hold?
China Dongxiang Group Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$1.1B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026