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Xinyi Energy Holdings Ltd (3868) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · HK · Market cap HK$7.7B

XE Xinyi Energy Holdings Ltd 3868 · HK
PriceHK$0.8300
Fair ValueHK$1.86
Upside+124.1%
Quality50/100
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Expensive Growth
Highly profitable · 41.2% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
6.52% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (13/15)
Wide moat 67/100
Evidence: High Range HK$1.52 – HK$3.08 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Share price −8.8% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 124% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$1.52). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$1.52 to HK$3.08) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$4.47 HK$0.6166 Fair Value HK$1.86 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.6166 – HK$4.47 · fair‑value band HK$1.52 – HK$3.08 · the HK$0.8300 price screens below the HK$1.86 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Xinyi Energy Holdings Ltd (3868) currently trades at HK$0.8300, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.86, implying the stock looks roughly 124.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Xinyi Energy Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$2.5B at a net margin of 41.2%. Revenue declined 5.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.8%. Net debt stands at HK$8.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$1.52 (bear case) to HK$3.08 (bull case); at HK$0.8300, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -36% fair-value upside, at 124%, 3868 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$0.5300 HK$1.20 HK$2.26 80
Residual Income HK$1.40 HK$1.47 HK$1.58 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.2200 HK$0.6500 HK$1.19 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.5300 HK$1.26 HK$2.46 38
Owner Earnings HK$0.7300 HK$1.61 HK$3.05 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.2200 HK$0.6500 HK$1.21 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.16 HK$2.55 HK$4.29 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$0.9200 HK$2.06 HK$3.36 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.3000 HK$0.7300 HK$1.36 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.9200 HK$2.09 HK$3.85 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$0.7700 HK$1.74 HK$3.10 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.8700 HK$3.86 HK$5.28 54
Lynch FV HK$1.00 HK$1.43 HK$1.85 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$1.00 HK$1.43 HK$1.85 46
EPV HK$0.8600 HK$1.07 HK$1.25 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.3300 HK$0.6600 HK$0.9900 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.3300 HK$0.5700 HK$0.6900 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$1.74 HK$2.32 HK$2.89 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.5900 HK$0.7800 HK$0.9800 58
P/B Multiple HK$1.64 HK$2.19 HK$2.73 55
EV/EBIT HK$1.61 HK$2.30 HK$2.99 53
EV/EBITDA HK$1.66 HK$2.37 HK$3.08 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.0700 HK$0.3100 HK$0.5400 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.8700 HK$1.16 HK$1.73 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.5300 HK$1.20 HK$2.26 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.2200 HK$0.6500 HK$1.19 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$1.40 HK$1.47 HK$1.58 76
ROIC Compounder HK$0.8600 HK$1.07 HK$1.25 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.51 HK$2.16 HK$2.81 68

Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$2.19) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.5700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$2.5B
Revenue growth (YoY) -5.6%
Net margin 41.2%
Return on equity 7.8%
Free cash flow HK$713M FY2025
P/E ratio 6.4 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 61.7%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0600
Dividend yield 6.5%
EPS growth (YoY) +29.0%
Net debt HK$8.2B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 71
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 44
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 41
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 56
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 6
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 47
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the operations and management of solar and wind farms in the People's Republic of China. The company acquires, owns, and manages a portfolio of utility scale ground-mounted solar farm projects.

Full company description

Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the operations and management of solar and wind farms in the People's Republic of China. The company acquires, owns, and manages a portfolio of utility scale ground-mounted solar farm projects. It is also involved in the sale of electricity; and provision of big data, intelligent management, and video surveillance platforms, as well as drone inspection and automatic cleaning systems. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Wuhu, the People's Republic of China. Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Xinyi Energy Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$2.7B in FY2025 versus HK$2.3B in FY2021, a compound +3.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.1B in FY2025, compounding −2.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$2.7B
Latest YoY
+2.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.1%
Avg. growth/yr (10Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+23.9%
Revenue +3.7%/yr
FY21 HK$2.3B
FY22 HK$2.3B
FY23 HK$2.5B
FY24 HK$2.6B
FY25 HK$2.7B
Net income −2.9%/yr
FY21 HK$1.2B
FY22 HK$971M
FY23 HK$993M
FY24 HK$842M
FY25 HK$1.1B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2025) +6.6 % p.a.
Revenue per share +15.0 pp

of which total revenue +17.9 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.9 pp

EBIT margin −2.3 pp
Tax rate −3.3 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −2.7 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Xinyi Energy Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
HK$1.86 +124%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xinyi Energy Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3868

Peer Group

Utilities - Renewable · 221 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 50 · Above median
Fair Value upside +124% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 41% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 62% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.5% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.35× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.52× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 3.13× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 1.4× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 5.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 1.35× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 10
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 31 · sector 11
HEALTH 83 · sector 67
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 47

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Yangtze Power Co 600900 ¥28.02 ¥25.13 -10%
Ørsted A/S ORSTED kr 148.25 kr 31.40 -79%
Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 ¥9.69 ¥5.57 -43%
Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN ₹1,319 ₹169.61 -87%
AXIA Energia SA AXIAP $10.74 $9.54 -11%
BEP BEP $34.23 $70.40 +106%
BEPUN BEPUN C$44.56 C$10.15 -77%
China Longyuan Power Group 001289 ¥15.92 ¥7.55 -53%
SDIC Power Holdings 600886 ¥13.95 ¥16.63 +19%
China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co 600905 ¥3.77 ¥2.40 -36%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Xinyi Energy Holdings Ltd (3868) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.86 versus a price of HK$0.8300, about +124% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 3868?
Our model-based fair value for Xinyi Energy Holdings Ltd is HK$1.86 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.8300.
What is the quality score of 3868?
Xinyi Energy Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Xinyi Energy Holdings Ltd (3868)?
Xinyi Energy Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$2.5B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 3868?
The net profit margin of Xinyi Energy Holdings Ltd is about 41.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 41.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Xinyi Energy Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Xinyi Energy Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.52% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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