3868 (3868) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · Market cap HK$7.7B

3 3868 3868 · HK

PriceHK$0.8800

Fair ValueHK$2.00

Upside+127.3%

Quality43/100

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Evidence: High Range HK$1.51 – HK$3.15

Fair value as of: Jul 2, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated today

Share price −30.2% over the past month.

Price vs Fair Value (12 months)

12‑month range HK$0.8800 – HK$1.40 · fair‑value band HK$1.51 – HK$3.15 · the HK$0.8800 price screens below the HK$2.00 fair value. As of Jul 2, 2026.

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Analysis

3868 (3868) currently trades at HK$0.8800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.00 — implying the stock looks roughly 127.3% undervalued today. We read business quality at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high) — always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, 3868 generated revenue of HK$2.5B at a net margin of 41.2%. Revenue declined 5.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.8%. Net debt stands at HK$8.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 2, 2026

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$2.5B

Revenue growth (YoY) -5.6%

Net margin 41.2%

Return on equity 7.8%

Free cash flow HK$713M FY2025

P/E ratio 6.4

More key figures

Operating margin 61.7%

EPS (TTM) HK$0.0600

Dividend yield 6.5%

EPS growth (YoY) +29.0%

Net debt HK$8.2B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

3868 reported revenue of HK$2.7B in FY2025 versus HK$2.3B in FY2021, a compound +3.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.1B in FY2025, compounding −2.9%/yr from FY2021.

Revenue +3.7%/yr

FY21 HK$2.3B

FY22 HK$2.3B

FY23 HK$2.5B

FY24 HK$2.6B

FY25 HK$2.7B

Net income −2.9%/yr

FY21 HK$1.2B

FY22 HK$971M

FY23 HK$993M

FY24 HK$842M

FY25 HK$1.1B

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Similar stocks

6 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 2, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
China Yangtze Power Co 600900	¥27.69	¥19.99	-28%
Ørsted A/S, D2G	€21.98	€8.27	-62%
Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025	¥9.73	¥2.95	-70%
Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN	₹1,550	₹170.50	-89%
AXIA Energia SA AXIAP	$10.74	$9.67	-10%
VERBUND AG OEWA	€58.65	€82.41	+41%

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Frequently asked questions

Is 3868 (3868) undervalued?

As of Jul 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.00 versus a price of HK$0.8800 — about +127% (undervalued). Model-based estimate, not financial advice.

What is the fair value of 3868?

Our model-based fair value for 3868 is HK$2.00 (as of Jul 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.8800.

What is the quality score of 3868?

3868 has a Quality Score of 43/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.

What is the revenue of 3868 (3868)?

3868 reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$2.5B (latest available figure, as of Jul 2, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 3868?

The net profit margin of 3868 is about 41.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 41.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does 3868 pay a dividend?

3868 currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.52% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 2, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.