China Longyuan Power Group (001289) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · CN · Market cap 138B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from ¥7.08 to ¥8.23 (+16.2%) since Jul 5, 2026. Share price +2.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 49% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥9.65). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
54‑month range ¥13.25 – ¥28.56 · fair‑value band ¥6.90 – ¥9.65 · the ¥16.05 price screens above the ¥8.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
China Longyuan Power Group (001289) currently trades at ¥16.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥8.23, implying the stock looks roughly 48.7% overvalued today. We read business quality at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, China Longyuan Power Group generated revenue of 30.0B CNY at a net margin of 14.5%. Revenue declined 3.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.9%. Net debt stands at 106B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥6.90 (bear case) to ¥9.65 (bull case); at ¥16.05, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -10% fair-value upside, at -49%, 001289 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (¥10.83) versus Earnings-Based (¥0.0900). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Longyuan Power Group Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in new energy power generation in the Chinese Mainland, Canada, South Africa, and Ukraine.
Full company description
China Longyuan Power Group Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in new energy power generation in the Chinese Mainland, Canada, South Africa, and Ukraine. China Longyuan Power Group Corporation Limited was formerly known as China Longyuan Electric Power Group Corporation and changed its name to China Longyuan Power Group Corporation Limited in July 2009. The company was founded in 1993 and is based in Beijing, China. China Longyuan Power Group Corporation Limited is a subsidiary of Chnenergy Investment Group Co.,LTD.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Longyuan Power Group reported revenue of ¥30.3B in FY2025 versus ¥39.9B in FY2021, a compound −6.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥4.5B in FY2025, compounding −11.6%/yr from FY2021.
001289 screens 49% overvalued. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Yangtze Power Co 600900 | ¥27.99 | ¥25.13 | -10% |
| Ørsted A/S ORSTED | kr 149.70 | kr 31.40 | -79% |
| Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 | ¥9.81 | ¥5.57 | -43% |
| Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN | ₹1,537 | ₹170.50 | -89% |
| AXIA Energia SA AXIAP | $10.74 | $9.65 | -10% |
| VERBUND AG OEWA | €58.65 | €66.19 | +13% |
| BEP BEP | $32.33 | $73.35 | +127% |
| BEPUN BEPUN | C$44.56 | C$10.15 | -77% |
| Fortum Oyj FORTUM | €19.89 | €13.90 | -30% |
| SDIC Power Holdings 600886 | ¥14.23 | ¥16.63 | +17% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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