Bank of China Ltd H (3988) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Bank of China Ltd H is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$1.88 – HK$6.09 · fair‑value band HK$8.88 – HK$14.80 · the HK$5.99 price screens below the HK$11.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
Bank of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking and financial services in Chinese Mainland, Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, Treasury Operations, Investment Banking, Insurance, and Other.
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Bank of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking and financial services in Chinese Mainland, Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, Treasury Operations, Investment Banking, Insurance, and Other. The Corporate Banking segment provides current accounts, deposits, overdrafts, loans, payments and settlements, trade-related products, and other credit facilities, as well as foreign currency, derivative, and wealth management products for corporate customers, government authorities, and financial institutions. The Personal Banking segment offers savings deposits, personal loans, credit cards and debit cards, payments and settlements, wealth management, and funds and insurance agency services to retail customers. The Treasury Operations segment offers foreign exchange transactions, customer-based interest rate, and foreign exchange derivative transactions, as well as money market transactions, proprietary trading, and asset and liability management. The Investment Banking segment provides debt and equity underwriting and financial advisory, sale and trading of securities, stock brokerage, investment research, asset management services, and private equity investment services. The Insurance segment provides underwriting services for general and life insurance business, and insurance agency services. In addition, it operates debt-to-equity swaps and other supporting, and aircraft and financial leasing business. The company was founded in 1912 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.
Stock analysis
Bank of China Ltd H (3988) currently trades at HK$5.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$11.58, implying the stock looks roughly 48.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$9.62 per share, and 6 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$5.99 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$6.25, and 0 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$8.88 (bear) to HK$14.80 (bull), the price of HK$5.99 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Bank of China Ltd H reported revenue of 1.2T CNY in FY2025 versus 503B CNY in FY2021, a compound +24.7%/yr. Reported net income was 243B CNY in FY2025, compounding +2.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$2.0T (≈ $251B) · P/E ratio 6.2 · P/S ratio 1.23 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.7935 · Dividend yield 6.4% · Net margin 20.0% · Return on equity 8.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades near its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 93%, 3988 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$8.88Fair Value HK$11.58Bull HK$14.80
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.2976 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+129.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.0%
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4% vs 3%, steady
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.43% → 25%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−7.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (84 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 47 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside+82% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)43% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)53% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.29× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bank of China Ltd H Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3988
Frequently asked questions
Is Bank of China Ltd H (3988) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$11.58 versus a price of HK$5.99, about +93% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 3988?
Our model-based fair value for Bank of China Ltd H is HK$11.58 (as of Sep 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$5.99.
What is the quality score of 3988?
Bank of China Ltd H has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bank of China Ltd H (3988)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$11.58 (as of Sep 17, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$8.88, optimistic scenario HK$14.80. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bank of China Ltd H stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$11.58, about +93% upside versus a price of HK$5.99 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$8.88, optimistic scenario HK$14.80. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bank of China Ltd H (3988)?
Bank of China Ltd H reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$567B (latest available figure, as of Sep 17, 2026).
Does Bank of China Ltd H pay a dividend?
Bank of China Ltd H currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.38% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 17, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bank of China Ltd H (3988)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bank of China Ltd H would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.0 % per year. As of Sep 17, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 3988 use?
Our models discount Bank of China Ltd H at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.10, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bank of China Ltd H that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bank of China Ltd H (3988) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bank of China Ltd H grew +22.0 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bank of China Ltd H (3988) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bank of China Ltd H (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bank of China Ltd H (3988)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 38.71 %: that much free cash flow Bank of China Ltd H produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bank of China Ltd H (3988)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bank of China Ltd H it is HK$11.58 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026), against a price of HK$5.99. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bank of China Ltd H stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 17, 2026, 3988 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$5.99, fair value HK$11.58, a gap of about +93% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3988?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$5.99); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$11.58). For Bank of China Ltd H the two are HK$5.60 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bank of China Ltd H worth?
The market values Bank of China Ltd H at about HK$2.0T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 17, 2026). Per share that is HK$5.99; our models calculate a fair value of HK$11.58 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3988?
Our models span a range for Bank of China Ltd H: cautious scenario HK$8.88, base HK$11.58, optimistic HK$14.80 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026, price HK$5.99). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 3988?
Bank of China Ltd H trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.2 (as of Sep 17, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$11.58 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 0.5, P/S 2.9.
What is the PEG ratio of 3988?
The PEG ratio of Bank of China Ltd H is 1.15 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 17, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bank of China Ltd H (3988)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bank of China Ltd H (as of Sep 17, 2026): return on equity 8.4%, debt of 0.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3988 from its 52-week high?
Bank of China Ltd H trades at HK$5.99, about 12% below its 52-week high of HK$5.33 and 49% above the low of HK$4.00 (as of Sep 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$11.58 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bank of China Ltd H?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, Bank of America Corporation, China Construction Bank Corporation, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bank of China Ltd H stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 17, 2026: price HK$5.99, calculated fair value HK$11.58 (+93%), Quality Score 54/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3988 calculated?
We run Bank of China Ltd H through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$11.58, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Bank of China Ltd H currently trades 93 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bank of China Ltd H (3988)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was HK$5.99. Our model-based fair value is HK$11.58, about +93% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bank of China Ltd H right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$8.88). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Bank of China Ltd H (3988) come from?
Earnings per share at Bank of China Ltd H grew +3.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.9 %, EBIT margin −1.1 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Bank of China Ltd H
How large is the market capitalisation of Bank of China Ltd H (3988)?
The market capitalisation of Bank of China Ltd H is HK$2.0T (≈ $251B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bank of China Ltd H (3988)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bank of China Ltd H is 1.23 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bank of China Ltd H (3988)?
Earnings per share at Bank of China Ltd H are HK$0.7935 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Bank of China Ltd H (3988)?
The dividend yield of Bank of China Ltd H is 6.4% (payout 48.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Bank of China Ltd H (3988)?
The net margin of Bank of China Ltd H is 20.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bank of China Ltd H (3988)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bank of China Ltd H is 8.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bank of China Ltd H (3988)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bank of China Ltd H is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bank of China Ltd H (3988)?
The operating margin of Bank of China Ltd H is 53.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bank of China Ltd H (3988)?
Revenue at Bank of China Ltd H is growing +5.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +35.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Bank of China Ltd H (3988) hold?
Bank of China Ltd H holds more cash than debt, HK$1.5T net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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