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CMOC Group (3993) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$329B

CG CMOC Group 3993 · HK
PriceHK$17.00
Fair ValueHK$18.76
Upside+10.4%
Quality63/100
Mixed Growth
Solidly profitable · 10.6% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
1.88% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (14/15)
Wide moat 77/100
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Evidence: Medium Range HK$14.07 – HK$46.02 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 7, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 28 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 7, 2026, revised from HK$18.35 to HK$18.76 (+2.2%) since Jul 2, 2026. Share price +4.9% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 10% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (HK$14.07 to HK$46.02). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Our model range runs from HK$14.07 (bear) to HK$46.02 (bull), base HK$18.76. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 63/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$24.35 HK$2.17 Fair Value HK$18.76 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$2.17 – HK$24.35 · fair‑value band HK$14.07 – HK$46.02 · the HK$17.00 price screens below the HK$18.76 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 7, 2026.

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Analysis

CMOC Group (3993) currently trades at HK$17.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$18.76, implying the stock looks roughly 10.4% undervalued today. We read business quality at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, CMOC Group generated revenue of HK$227B at a net margin of 10.6%. Revenue grew 44.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 28.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$377M. Fundamentals as of Jul 7, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$14.07 (bear case) to HK$46.02 (bull case); at HK$17.00, the current price sits within that range. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 123% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -36% fair-value upside, at 10%, 3993 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$12.12 HK$22.10 HK$43.13 80
Residual Income HK$6.86 HK$9.39 HK$60.84 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$17.43 HK$34.33 HK$67.00 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$12.77 HK$19.71 HK$42.38 38
Owner Earnings HK$17.13 HK$38.19 HK$84.37 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$16.91 HK$30.22 HK$58.26 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$19.43 HK$35.31 HK$66.55 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$15.48 HK$33.96 HK$59.35 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$15.40 HK$36.91 HK$52.10 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$18.00 HK$42.46 HK$86.44 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$15.05 HK$33.77 HK$65.02 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$6.50 HK$45.30 HK$63.58 54
Lynch FV HK$18.46 HK$26.37 HK$34.28 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$18.46 HK$26.37 HK$34.28 46
EPV HK$12.81 HK$14.82 HK$16.60 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$2.40 HK$5.24 HK$8.82 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$2.40 HK$4.29 HK$5.46 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$14.33 HK$19.11 HK$23.88 63
P/S Multiple HK$12.18 HK$16.24 HK$20.30 58
P/B Multiple HK$8.72 HK$11.62 HK$14.53 55
EV/EBIT HK$23.85 HK$31.32 HK$38.79 53
EV/EBITDA HK$20.88 HK$27.36 HK$33.84 54
EV/Revenue HK$16.55 HK$23.02 HK$29.49 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.94 HK$2.60 HK$3.87 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$12.12 HK$22.10 HK$43.13 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$17.43 HK$34.33 HK$67.00 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$6.86 HK$9.39 HK$60.84 76
ROIC Compounder HK$15.65 HK$21.94 HK$30.65 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$22.70 HK$32.43 HK$42.16 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$33.96) versus Asset-Based (HK$2.60). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$227B
Revenue growth (YoY) +44.3%
Net margin 10.6%
Return on equity 28.8%
Free cash flow HK$13.5B FY2025
P/E ratio 14.0
More key figures
Operating margin 19.7%
EPS (TTM) HK$1.18
Dividend yield 1.9%
EPS growth (YoY) +100%
Net cash HK$377M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52

Profitability 63
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 56
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 42
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 70
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 57
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 31
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 52
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 77
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 87
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

CMOC Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, beneficiation, and smelting of base and rare metals in Asia, Africa, South America, and Europe.

Full company description

CMOC Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, beneficiation, and smelting of base and rare metals in Asia, Africa, South America, and Europe. It operates through Molybdenum and Tungsten Related Products; Niobium and Phosphorus Related Products; Copper-Cobalt Related Products; Mineral and Metal Trade; Refined Metals Trade; and Others segments. The company offers copper, gold, cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, and niobium; and phosphate fertilizer. It also engages in trading in base metals, and molybdenum and tungstenic products; selection, processing, refining, and sale of mineral products; import and export of goods and technology; consulting; asset and investment management; enterprise operation and management; technology services; logistics transportation; technical services and software development; and hotel operation activities. The company was formerly known as China Molybdenum Co., Ltd. and changed its name to CMOC Group Limited in June 2022. CMOC Group Limited was founded in 1969 and is based in Luoyang, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

CMOC Group reported revenue of HK$206B in FY2025 versus HK$174B in FY2021, a compound +4.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$20.3B in FY2025, compounding +41.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$206B
Latest YoY
−3.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+6.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+12.8%
Avg. growth/yr (19Y)
+23.4%
Revenue +4.4%/yr
FY21 HK$174B
FY22 HK$173B
FY23 HK$186B
FY24 HK$213B
FY25 HK$206B
Net income +41.3%/yr
FY21 HK$5.1B
FY22 HK$6.1B
FY23 HK$8.2B
FY24 HK$13.5B
FY25 HK$20.3B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CMOC Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3993

Peer Group

Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 543 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +11% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 29% · Top 25%
Return on assets 15% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 11% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 20% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 44% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.9% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 3.99× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.45× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 3.1× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 5.5× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.76× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 48 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 2
PAST 100 · sector 0
HEALTH 99 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 38 · sector 21

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 7, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
BHP Group BHPN 1,425 MXN 942.42 MXN -34%
Rio Tinto Group RIO A$164.89 A$81.76 -50%
Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB 199.23 MXN 187.72 MXN -6%
Vale S.A VALE $14.19 $9.14 -36%
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 58.05 SAR 33.87 SAR -42%
Fortescue Ltd FMG A$18.47 A$18.62 +1%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥74.71 ¥9.55 -87%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹521.95 ₹576.80 +11%
China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 ¥39.56 ¥10.59 -73%
Korea Zinc Company 010130 1,043,000 KRW 646,063 KRW -38%

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Frequently asked questions

Is CMOC Group (3993) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$18.76 versus a price of HK$17.00, about +10% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 3993?
Our model-based fair value for CMOC Group is HK$18.76 (as of Jul 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$17.00.
What is the quality score of 3993?
CMOC Group has a Quality Score of 63/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.
What is the revenue of CMOC Group (3993)?
CMOC Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$227B (latest available figure, as of Jul 7, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 3993?
The net profit margin of CMOC Group is about 10.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 10.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does CMOC Group pay a dividend?
CMOC Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.88% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 7, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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