Saudi Ground Services Co (4031) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Saudi Ground Services Co stock SAR 33.41, price SAR 19.27, upside +73.4%, quality 67 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 18.50 SAR – 55.52 SAR · fair‑value band 25.17 SAR – 44.10 SAR · the 19.27 SAR price screens below the 33.41 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Oct 28, 2026.
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Saudi Ground Services Company provides ground-handling services in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
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The company offers passenger services, such as station management, gate services, VIP services, deportee handling, additional security services, flight operations, and assisting passengers with reduced mobility, as well as arrival and transfer services, check-in services, excess baggage services, boarding pass and baggage tagging, load control, crew handling, and passenger manifests and seat allocation.
It also provides loading and unloading, baggage assembly, sorting, reconciliation and transportation, and operation and handling of baggage reconciliation system; traffic control services; and ramp services, including aircraft turnaround coordination, ground to cock-pit headset services, marshaling the aircraft, aircraft loading supervision, ground power unit, push-back, unit load device control, air conditioning unit, air starter unit, aircraft towing, and wing-walkers.
In addition, the company offers loading and unloading, and transportation of general cargo and special cargo; load control comprising load planning, aircraft weight and balance calculations, messaging and telecommunications, issuing loading instruction reports, and notification to captain and load sheet; and cabin grooming and deep cleaning, turnaround cleaning, toilet and water services, and disinfection services.
Further, it provides representation and supervision services. The company was founded in 1945 and is based in Jeddah, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Ground Services Company operates as a subsidiary of Saudi Arabian Airlines Corporation.
Stock analysis
Saudi Ground Services Co (4031) currently trades at 19.27 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 33.41 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 42.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 38.49 SAR per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the 19.27 SAR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 3.97 SAR, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 25.17 SAR (bear) to 44.10 SAR (bull), the price of 19.27 SAR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Saudi Ground Services Co reported revenue of 2.7B SAR in FY2025 versus 1.6B SAR in FY2021, a compound +14.1%/yr. Reported net income was 405M SAR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 3.6B SAR (≈ $966M) Small · P/E ratio 16.8 · P/S ratio 1.35 · EPS (TTM) 1.15 SAR · Dividend yield 5.2% · Net margin 7.9% · Return on equity 8.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 73%, 4031 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear25.17 SARFair Value 33.41 SARBull44.10 SAR
Price 19.27 SAR · Upside +73.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.1241 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.7% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ −2.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−7.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.9% vs −4.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−32% → 11%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 50% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−12.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −13.8% a year for the price and +0.1% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airports & Air Services · 51 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+73.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.3% · Below median
Return on assets9.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)7.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)−9.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−7.8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)5.2% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Airports & Air Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Saudi Ground Services Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4031
Frequently asked questions
Is Saudi Ground Services Co (4031) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 33.41 SAR versus a price of 19.27 SAR, about +73% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 4031?
Our model-based fair value for Saudi Ground Services Co is 33.41 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 19.27 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4031?
Saudi Ground Services Co has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Saudi Ground Services Co (4031)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 33.41 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 25.17 SAR, optimistic scenario 44.10 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Saudi Ground Services Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 33.41 SAR, about +73% upside versus a price of 19.27 SAR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 25.17 SAR, optimistic scenario 44.10 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Saudi Ground Services Co (4031)?
Saudi Ground Services Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.7B SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
Does Saudi Ground Services Co pay a dividend?
Saudi Ground Services Co currently shows a dividend yield of 5.19% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Saudi Ground Services Co (4031)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Saudi Ground Services Co would have to grow free cash flow by -12.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.9 % per year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4031 use?
Our models discount Saudi Ground Services Co at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.13, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Saudi Ground Services Co that is -12.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Saudi Ground Services Co (4031) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Saudi Ground Services Co grew +16.9 % a year. The price currently implies -12.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Saudi Ground Services Co (4031) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Saudi Ground Services Co (-12.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Saudi Ground Services Co (4031)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.84 %: that much free cash flow Saudi Ground Services Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Saudi Ground Services Co (4031)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Saudi Ground Services Co it is 33.41 SAR per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of 19.27 SAR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Saudi Ground Services Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, 4031 trades below its calculated fair value: price 19.27 SAR, fair value 33.41 SAR, a gap of about +73% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4031?
No. The price is what the market pays today (19.27 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (33.41 SAR). For Saudi Ground Services Co the two are 14.14 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Saudi Ground Services Co worth?
The market values Saudi Ground Services Co at about 3.6B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is 19.27 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 33.41 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4031?
Our models span a range for Saudi Ground Services Co: cautious scenario 25.17 SAR, base 33.41 SAR, optimistic 44.10 SAR per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price 19.27 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4031?
Saudi Ground Services Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.8 (as of Oct 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 33.41 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 13.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Saudi Ground Services Co (4031)?
Balance-sheet figures for Saudi Ground Services Co (as of Oct 28, 2026): return on equity 8.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4031 from its 52-week high?
Saudi Ground Services Co trades at 19.27 SAR, about 57% below its 52-week high of 44.70 SAR and 4% above the low of 18.50 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 33.41 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Saudi Ground Services Co?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Aena S.M.E., S.A, Airports of Thailand Public Company, GMR Airports Limited, Shanghai International Airport Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Saudi Ground Services Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price 19.27 SAR, calculated fair value 33.41 SAR (+73%), Quality Score 67/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4031 calculated?
We run Saudi Ground Services Co through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 33.41 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Saudi Ground Services Co currently trades 42 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Saudi Ground Services Co (4031)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 19.27 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 33.41 SAR, about +73% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Saudi Ground Services Co right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (25.17 SAR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Saudi Ground Services Co (4031) come from?
Earnings per share at Saudi Ground Services Co grew −7.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.3 %, EBIT margin −9.3 %, tax rate −1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Saudi Ground Services Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Saudi Ground Services Co (4031)?
The market capitalisation of Saudi Ground Services Co is 3.6B SAR (≈ $966M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Saudi Ground Services Co (4031)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Saudi Ground Services Co is 1.35 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Saudi Ground Services Co (4031)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Ground Services Co are 1.15 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Saudi Ground Services Co (4031)?
The dividend yield of Saudi Ground Services Co is 5.2% (payout 87.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Saudi Ground Services Co (4031)?
The net margin of Saudi Ground Services Co is 7.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Saudi Ground Services Co (4031)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Saudi Ground Services Co is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Saudi Ground Services Co (4031)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Saudi Ground Services Co is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Saudi Ground Services Co (4031)?
The operating margin of Saudi Ground Services Co is −9.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Saudi Ground Services Co (4031)?
Revenue at Saudi Ground Services Co is growing −7.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Saudi Ground Services Co (4031)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Ground Services Co are growing −43.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Saudi Ground Services Co (4031) hold?
Saudi Ground Services Co holds more cash than debt, 84.7M SAR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 28, 2026