CHC Healthcare Group (4164) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of CHC Healthcare Group TWD 15.04, price TWD 26.40, upside -43.0%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 25.20 TWD – 71.65 TWD · fair‑value band 10.41 TWD – 21.10 TWD · the 26.40 TWD price screens above the 15.04 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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CHC Healthcare Group, together with its subsidiaries, trades in medical equipment, pharmaceutical products, and health food in Taiwan, China, and internationally.
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CHC Healthcare Group, together with its subsidiaries, trades in medical equipment, pharmaceutical products, and health food in Taiwan, China, and internationally. The company is also involved in the leasing, installing, servicing, and repairing of medical instruments for use in various specialties, such as radiation oncology, medical imaging, neurology, surgery, ophthalmology, robot rehabilitation, dentistry, and smart health care. In addition, it engages in the irradiation business; sale of daily necessities, beauty products, and health supplements; elderly residence, long-term care, and senior services; leasing of veterinary medical instruments; department setup, business management consultation, and educational training and staff development for healthcare personnel; technical support and maintenance; radiation sterilization business; and online and physical store pharmacy chain activities. The company was formerly known as Cheng Yeh Holdings Co., Ltd. and changed its name to CHC Healthcare Group in 2012. CHC Healthcare Group was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Taipei, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
CHC Healthcare Group (4164) currently trades at 26.40 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 15.04 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 75.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 26.38 TWD per share, and 5 of the 25 models we run sit above the 26.40 TWD price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 4.79 TWD, and 20 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 10.41 TWD (bear) to 21.10 TWD (bull), the price of 26.40 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
CHC Healthcare Group reported revenue of 4.4B TWD in FY2025 versus 2.4B TWD in FY2021, a compound +15.9%/yr. Reported net income was 186M TWD in FY2025, compounding −16.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 6.0B TWD (≈ $187M) · P/E ratio 26.4 · P/S ratio 1.12 · EPS (TTM) 1.00 TWD · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 4.2% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 35% fair-value upside, at −43%, 4164 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 10.41 TWDFair Value 15.04 TWDBull 21.10 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.3% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−12.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−16.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−17% vs −6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+35.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +33.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Distribution · 83 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−43% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth15% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.44× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Distribution median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)26.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.78× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)1.31× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF1.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA7.3× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 42
FUTURE (revenue growth)76· sector 17
PAST (return on equity)14· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)78· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)83· sector 59
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CHC Healthcare Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4164
Frequently asked questions
Is CHC Healthcare Group (4164) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 15.04 TWD versus a price of 26.40 TWD, about −43% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4164?
Our model-based fair value for CHC Healthcare Group is 15.04 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 26.40 TWD.
What is the quality score of 4164?
CHC Healthcare Group has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CHC Healthcare Group (4164)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 15.04 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 10.41 TWD, optimistic scenario 21.10 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CHC Healthcare Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 15.04 TWD, about −43% upside versus a price of 26.40 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 10.41 TWD, optimistic scenario 21.10 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CHC Healthcare Group (4164)?
CHC Healthcare Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.6B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does CHC Healthcare Group pay a dividend?
CHC Healthcare Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.17% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into CHC Healthcare Group (4164)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CHC Healthcare Group would have to grow free cash flow by +35.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4164 use?
Our models discount CHC Healthcare Group at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.18, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CHC Healthcare Group that is +35.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CHC Healthcare Group (4164) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CHC Healthcare Group grew +11.5 % a year. The price currently implies +35.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CHC Healthcare Group (4164) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CHC Healthcare Group (+35.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CHC Healthcare Group (4164)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.68 %: that much free cash flow CHC Healthcare Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CHC Healthcare Group (4164)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CHC Healthcare Group it is 15.04 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 26.40 TWD. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CHC Healthcare Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 4164 trades above its calculated fair value: price 26.40 TWD, fair value 15.04 TWD, a gap of about −43% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4164?
No. The price is what the market pays today (26.40 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (15.04 TWD). For CHC Healthcare Group the two are 11.36 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CHC Healthcare Group worth?
The market values CHC Healthcare Group at about 6.0B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 26.40 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 15.04 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4164?
Our models span a range for CHC Healthcare Group: cautious scenario 10.41 TWD, base 15.04 TWD, optimistic 21.10 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 26.40 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4164?
CHC Healthcare Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 15.04 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 7.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of CHC Healthcare Group (4164)?
Balance-sheet figures for CHC Healthcare Group (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.4%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4164 from its 52-week high?
CHC Healthcare Group trades at 26.40 TWD, about 46% below its 52-week high of 48.55 TWD and 5% above the low of 25.20 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 15.04 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CHC Healthcare Group?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value McKesson Corporation, Cencora, Inc, Cardinal Health, Inc, Henry Schein, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CHC Healthcare Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 26.40 TWD, calculated fair value 15.04 TWD (−43%), Quality Score 37/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4164 calculated?
We run CHC Healthcare Group through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 15.04 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. CHC Healthcare Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CHC Healthcare Group (4164)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 26.40 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 15.04 TWD, about −43% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CHC Healthcare Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (21.10 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (10.41 TWD to 21.10 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of CHC Healthcare Group (4164) come from?
Earnings per share at CHC Healthcare Group grew −2.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.2 %, EBIT margin −4.4 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of CHC Healthcare Group
How large is the market capitalisation of CHC Healthcare Group (4164)?
The market capitalisation of CHC Healthcare Group is 6.0B TWD (≈ $187M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CHC Healthcare Group (4164)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CHC Healthcare Group is 1.12 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CHC Healthcare Group (4164)?
Earnings per share at CHC Healthcare Group are 1.00 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CHC Healthcare Group (4164)?
The dividend yield of CHC Healthcare Group is 4.2% (payout 110%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CHC Healthcare Group (4164)?
The net margin of CHC Healthcare Group is 4.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CHC Healthcare Group (4164)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CHC Healthcare Group is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CHC Healthcare Group (4164)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CHC Healthcare Group is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CHC Healthcare Group (4164)?
The operating margin of CHC Healthcare Group is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CHC Healthcare Group (4164)?
Revenue at CHC Healthcare Group is growing +15.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CHC Healthcare Group (4164)?
Earnings per share at CHC Healthcare Group are growing +165% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CHC Healthcare Group (4164) carry?
The net debt of CHC Healthcare Group is 3.6B TWD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 22.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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