Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd (4510) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd TWD 7.97, price TWD 43.60, upside -81.7%, quality 32 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 9.74 TWD – 61.90 TWD · fair‑value band 7.28 TWD – 9.02 TWD · the 43.60 TWD price screens above the 7.97 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Kao Fong Machinery Co., Ltd manufactures and sells machine tools and mechanical equipment in Taiwan, Asia, the United States, Europe, and other regions. It also offers double-column, vertical and horizontal processing machine center, light machining center, and fixed column five-axis machining center series.
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Kao Fong Machinery Co., Ltd manufactures and sells machine tools and mechanical equipment in Taiwan, Asia, the United States, Europe, and other regions. It also offers double-column, vertical and horizontal processing machine center, light machining center, and fixed column five-axis machining center series. Kao Fong Machinery Co., Ltd was founded in 1968 and is based in Taichung, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd (4510) currently trades at 43.60 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 7.97 TWD, 81.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 11.02 TWD per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the 43.60 TWD price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 5.90 TWD, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 7.28 TWD (bear) to 9.02 TWD (bull), the price of 43.60 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd reported revenue of 1.7B TWD in FY2025 versus 2.0B TWD in FY2021, a compound −4.0%/yr. Reported net income was −111M TWD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 4.8B TWD (≈ $149M) · P/E ratio 45.9 · P/S ratio 2.70 · EPS (TTM) 0.9500 TWD · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin −6.7% · Return on equity 9.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −82%, 4510 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 7.28 TWDFair Value 7.97 TWDBull 9.02 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.7184 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.20/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
1.2% (2020) → −6.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 789 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−81.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9.6% · Above median
Return on assets−1.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)5.6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−11.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.51× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)45.9× · Pricier than median
P/B2.65× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)2.57× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)63· sector 30
PAST (return on equity)38· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)75· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)35· sector 26
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4510
Frequently asked questions
Is Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd (4510) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 7.97 TWD versus a price of 43.60 TWD, about −82% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4510?
Our model-based fair value for Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd is 7.97 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 43.60 TWD.
What is the quality score of 4510?
Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd (4510)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 7.97 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario 7.28 TWD, optimistic scenario 9.02 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 7.97 TWD, about −82% upside versus a price of 43.60 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 7.28 TWD, optimistic scenario 9.02 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd (4510)?
Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.8B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.73% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd (4510)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd it is 7.97 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 43.60 TWD. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 4510 trades above its calculated fair value: price 43.60 TWD, fair value 7.97 TWD, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4510?
No. The price is what the market pays today (43.60 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (7.97 TWD). For Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd the two are 35.63 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd worth?
The market values Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd at about 4.8B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 43.60 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 7.97 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4510?
Our models span a range for Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd: cautious scenario 7.28 TWD, base 7.97 TWD, optimistic 9.02 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 43.60 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4510?
Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 45.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 7.97 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.7, P/S 2.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd (4510)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.6%, debt of 0.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4510 from its 52-week high?
Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd trades at 43.60 TWD, about 20% below its 52-week high of 54.30 TWD and 32% above the low of 33.00 TWD (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 7.97 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 43.60 TWD, calculated fair value 7.97 TWD (−82%), Quality Score 32/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4510 calculated?
We run Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 7.97 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd (4510)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 43.60 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 7.97 TWD, about −82% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (9.02 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd (4510)?
The market capitalisation of Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd is 4.8B TWD (≈ $149M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd (4510)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd is 2.70 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd (4510)?
Earnings per share at Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd are 0.9500 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 45.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd (4510)?
The dividend yield of Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd is 1.7% (payout 79.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd (4510)?
The net margin of Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd is −6.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd (4510)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd is 9.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd (4510)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd (4510)?
The operating margin of Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd is −11.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd (4510)?
Revenue at Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd is growing +12.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd (4510)?
Earnings per share at Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd are growing +20.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd (4510) generate?
The free cash flow of Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd is −278M TWD (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd (4510) carry?
The net debt of Kao Fong Machinery Co Ltd is 2.7B TWD (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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