GCS Holdings (4991) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of GCS Holdings TWD 107, price TWD 448, upside -76.0%, quality 79 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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GCS Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells compound semiconductor wafer and foundry related services in China, the United States, Taiwan, and internationally. It also researches, develops, manufactures, and sells optoelectronics technology products and optical chips, as well as grants royalty rights for intellectual property.
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GCS Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells compound semiconductor wafer and foundry related services in China, the United States, Taiwan, and internationally. It also researches, develops, manufactures, and sells optoelectronics technology products and optical chips, as well as grants royalty rights for intellectual property. The company engages in the wholesaling and retailing of electronic components; provision of product design, research development, and outsourcing management services; manufacturing and selling of semiconductor discrete devices, as well as photodiodes and avalanche photo diodes for telecommunication systems and data communication networks; and manufacturing, wholesaling, and retailing of telecommunication devices. In addition, it is involved in research, development, production, and sales of KGD-brand optoelectronic products, RF devices, power electronics devices, and optoelectronic devices wafer foundry; provides whole plant input services to Integrated Device Manufacturers, including process technology transfer, verification, product trial production, and mass production services. GCS Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is based in Grand Cayman, the Cayman Islands.
Stock analysis
GCS Holdings (4991) currently trades at 447.50 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 107.30 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 317.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 73.75 TWD per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the 447.50 TWD price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 16.53 TWD, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 80.26 TWD (bear) to 134.94 TWD (bull), the price of 447.50 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
GCS Holdings reported revenue of 2.2B TWD in FY2025 versus 1.2B TWD in FY2021, a compound +15.4%/yr. Reported net income was 17.5M TWD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 51.6B TWD (≈ $1.6B) · P/S ratio 32.5 · EPS (TTM) 0.1300 TWD · Net margin 0.8% · Return on equity 8.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.7% · Operating margin 25.5% · Revenue (TTM) 2.4B TWD.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −76%, 4991 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (2.45 TWD to 114.56 TWD). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear 80.26 TWDFair Value 107.30 TWDBull 134.94 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.1024 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+25.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.8% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−44.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−44.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−45% vs −27%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−7% → 18%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+56.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+36.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +54.1% a year for the price and +34.8% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 216 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "GCS Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4991
Frequently asked questions
Is GCS Holdings (4991) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 107.30 TWD versus a price of 447.50 TWD, about −76% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4991?
Our model-based fair value for GCS Holdings is 107.30 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 447.50 TWD.
What is the quality score of 4991?
GCS Holdings has a Quality Score of 79/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for GCS Holdings (4991)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 107.30 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 80.26 TWD, optimistic scenario 134.94 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the GCS Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 107.30 TWD, about −76% upside versus a price of 447.50 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 80.26 TWD, optimistic scenario 134.94 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of GCS Holdings (4991)?
GCS Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.4B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into GCS Holdings (4991)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, GCS Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by +56.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4991 use?
Our models discount GCS Holdings at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.92, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For GCS Holdings that is +56.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has GCS Holdings (4991) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at GCS Holdings grew +8.2 % a year. The price currently implies +56.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of GCS Holdings (4991) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into GCS Holdings (+56.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of GCS Holdings (4991)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.65 %: that much free cash flow GCS Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of GCS Holdings (4991)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For GCS Holdings it is 107.30 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 447.50 TWD. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is GCS Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 4991 trades above its calculated fair value: price 447.50 TWD, fair value 107.30 TWD, a gap of about −76% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4991?
No. The price is what the market pays today (447.50 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (107.30 TWD). For GCS Holdings the two are 340.20 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is GCS Holdings worth?
The market values GCS Holdings at about 51.6B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 447.50 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 107.30 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4991?
Our models span a range for GCS Holdings: cautious scenario 80.26 TWD, base 107.30 TWD, optimistic 134.94 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 447.50 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of GCS Holdings (4991)?
Balance-sheet figures for GCS Holdings (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.0%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 79/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4991 from its 52-week high?
GCS Holdings trades at 447.50 TWD, about 50% below its 52-week high of 895.00 TWD and 509% above the low of 73.50 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 107.30 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to GCS Holdings?
From the same area (Technology) we also value ASML Holding, Applied Materials, Inc, Lam Research Corporation, KLA Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is GCS Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 447.50 TWD, calculated fair value 107.30 TWD (−76%), Quality Score 79/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4991 calculated?
We run GCS Holdings through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 107.30 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. GCS Holdings itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of GCS Holdings (4991)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 447.50 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 107.30 TWD, about −76% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with GCS Holdings right now?
A high-quality business (quality 79/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (134.94 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Key figures of GCS Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of GCS Holdings (4991)?
The market capitalisation of GCS Holdings is 51.6B TWD (≈ $1.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of GCS Holdings (4991)?
The price-to-sales ratio of GCS Holdings is 32.5 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of GCS Holdings (4991)?
Earnings per share at GCS Holdings are 0.1300 TWD. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of GCS Holdings (4991)?
The net margin of GCS Holdings is 0.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of GCS Holdings (4991)?
The return on equity (ROE) of GCS Holdings is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of GCS Holdings (4991)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of GCS Holdings is −3.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of GCS Holdings (4991)?
The operating margin of GCS Holdings is 25.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at GCS Holdings (4991)?
Revenue at GCS Holdings is growing +51.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at GCS Holdings (4991)?
Earnings per share at GCS Holdings are growing −90.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does GCS Holdings (4991) hold?
GCS Holdings holds more cash than debt, 49.5M TWD net (fiscal year 2023). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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