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Chengdu Xuguang Electronics Co Ltd (600353) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 23.2B CNY

CX Chengdu Xuguang Electronics Co Ltd 600353 · SHG
Price¥37.54
Fair Value¥4.30
Upside-88.6%
Quality51/100

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 9.9% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
0.26% dividend yield
Trails peers (3/12)
Narrow moat 43/100
Evidence: High Range ¥3.01 – ¥5.58 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 5 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from ¥3.53 to ¥4.30 (+21.8%) since Aug 8, 2026. Share price +24.7% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 89% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥5.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (¥3.01 to ¥5.58) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥52.90 ¥3.28 Fair Value ¥4.30 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥3.28 – ¥52.90 · fair‑value band ¥3.01 – ¥5.58 · the ¥37.54 price screens above the ¥4.30 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Chengdu Xuguang Electronics Co Ltd (600353) currently trades at ¥37.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥4.30, implying the stock looks roughly 88.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Chengdu Xuguang Electronics Co Ltd generated revenue of 1.7B CNY at a net margin of 9.9%. Revenue grew 8.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.5%. Net debt stands at 141M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥3.01 (bear case) to ¥5.58 (bull case); at ¥37.54, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 232% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -65% fair-value upside, at -89%, 600353 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥1.94 ¥2.10 ¥2.61 76
ROIC Compounder ¥1.84 ¥2.13 ¥2.52 72
Gordon GGM ¥0.7000 ¥1.45 ¥2.31 70
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥1.33 ¥6.00 ¥8.22 54
Lynch FV ¥1.57 ¥2.24 ¥2.91 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥1.57 ¥2.24 ¥2.91 46
EPV ¥1.84 ¥2.13 ¥2.38 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥0.7000 ¥1.45 ¥2.31 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥0.7000 ¥1.23 ¥1.53 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥4.09 ¥5.46 ¥6.82 63
P/S Multiple ¥2.49 ¥3.31 ¥4.14 58
P/B Multiple ¥2.49 ¥3.31 ¥4.14 55
EV/EBIT ¥3.81 ¥5.05 ¥6.29 53
EV/EBITDA ¥4.06 ¥5.38 ¥6.70 54
EV/Revenue ¥1.98 ¥2.78 ¥3.59 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.14 ¥1.53 ¥2.29 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥1.94 ¥2.10 ¥2.61 76
ROIC Compounder ¥1.84 ¥2.13 ¥2.52 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥3.01 ¥4.30 ¥5.58 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥4.30) versus Dividend Discount (¥1.23). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 1.7B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +8.8%
Net margin 9.9%
Return on equity 7.5%
Free cash flow −114M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 187.7
More key figures
Operating margin 10.6%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.2000
Dividend yield 0.2%
EPS growth (YoY) +10.7%
Net debt 141M CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 14
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 78
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 55
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 31
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 80
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 71
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Chengdu Xuguang Electronics Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of metal-ceramic triodes and tetrodes and transmitting tubes in China and internationally. The company provides electron tubes, embedded pole, vacuum interrupter, electrical and electronic ceramics, electrical switchgears, and other accessories.

Full company description

Chengdu Xuguang Electronics Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of metal-ceramic triodes and tetrodes and transmitting tubes in China and internationally. The company provides electron tubes, embedded pole, vacuum interrupter, electrical and electronic ceramics, electrical switchgears, and other accessories. It also provides industry heating and laser cutting, metal-ceramic vacuum interrupters, embedded poles, medium & high voltage power distribution switchgears, fiber optic active devices and electronic industrial equipment, advanced electric and electronic ceramic products. Chengdu Xuguang Electronics Co., Ltd. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Chengdu, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Chengdu Xuguang Electronics Co Ltd reported revenue of ¥1.6B in FY2025 versus ¥1.0B in FY2021, a compound +12.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥162M in FY2025, compounding +29.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 55/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.6B CNY
Latest YoY
+3.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.6%
Avg. growth/yr (26Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.5%
Revenue +12.9%/yr
FY21 ¥1.0B
FY22 ¥1.1B
FY23 ¥1.3B
FY24 ¥1.6B
FY25 ¥1.6B
Net income +29.2%/yr
FY21 ¥58.0M
FY22 ¥100M
FY23 ¥92.7M
FY24 ¥102M
FY25 ¥162M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +6.9 % p.a.
Revenue per share +4.8 pp

of which total revenue +7.5 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.7 pp

EBIT margin +0.1 pp
Tax rate +0.8 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +1.2 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

600353 screens 89% overvalued. Compare with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chengdu Xuguang Electronics Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600353

Peer Group

Electrical Equipment & Parts · 533 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside −89% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 9% · Above median
Revenue growth 9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.3% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.13× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Electrical Equipment & Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 187.7× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 12.25× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 13.95× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 44 · sector 57
PAST 30 · sector 27
HEALTH 94 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 5 · sector 23

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Electrical Equipment & Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co 3750 HK$652.50 HK$394.19 -40%
Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company DELTA 269.00 THB 40.28 THB -85%
LG Energy Solution, Ltd 373220 365,500 KRW 201,455 KRW -45%
WEG S.A WEGE3 14,900 ARS 4,338 ARS -71%
Sungrow Power Supply Co 300274 ¥117.53 ¥123.83 +5%
HD Hyundai Electric Co 267260 782,000 KRW 371,133 KRW -53%
LS ELECTRIC Co 010120 206,500 KRW 29,594 KRW -86%
Hyosung Heavy Industries Corporation 298040 2,892,000 KRW 1,013,099 KRW -65%
Hitachi Energy India Limited POWERINDIA ₹35,800 ₹6,106 -83%
Polycab India Limited POLYCAB ₹9,289 ₹3,218 -65%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Chengdu Xuguang Electronics Co Ltd (600353) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥4.30 versus a price of ¥37.54, about −89% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600353?
Our model-based fair value for Chengdu Xuguang Electronics Co Ltd is ¥4.30 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥37.54.
What is the quality score of 600353?
Chengdu Xuguang Electronics Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Chengdu Xuguang Electronics Co Ltd (600353)?
Chengdu Xuguang Electronics Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 600353?
The net profit margin of Chengdu Xuguang Electronics Co Ltd is about 9.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 9.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Chengdu Xuguang Electronics Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Chengdu Xuguang Electronics Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.23% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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