Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A (603161) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A ¥16.45, price ¥15.03, upside +9.4%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.44 – ¥17.86 · fair‑value band ¥12.35 – ¥20.56 · the ¥15.03 price screens below the ¥16.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Kehua Holdings Co.,Ltd engages in the production and sale of automotive turbocharger parts, engineering machinery parts, hydraulic pump valves, and new energy vehicle parts.
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Kehua Holdings Co.,Ltd engages in the production and sale of automotive turbocharger parts, engineering machinery parts, hydraulic pump valves, and new energy vehicle parts. It offers turbine and intermediate shell; differential and differential lock; chassis components, such as clamp body, bracket, and steering knuckle; counterweight block, planetary carrier, and bearing seat; and valve and pump body, and shell. The company also provides brake caliper assemblies for various pneumatic braking systems, such as light trucks, medium trucks, heavy trucks, 6-meter to 18 meter buses, trailers, and non-highway engineering vehicles. It sells its products to China, Mexico, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, India, and internationally. The company was formerly known as Liyang Kehua Machinery Manufacturing Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Kehua Holdings Co.,Ltd in June 2014. Kehua Holdings Co.,Ltd was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Changzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A (603161) currently trades at ¥15.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥16.45, implying the stock looks roughly 8.6% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥29.06 per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥15.03 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥3.79, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥12.35 (bear) to ¥20.56 (bull), the price of ¥15.03 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A reported revenue of 2.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was 97.5M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 2.9B CNY (≈ $436M) · P/E ratio 33.4 · P/S ratio 1.45 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.4500 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 4.4% · Return on equity 5.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at 9%, 603161 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥12.35Fair Value ¥16.45Bull ¥20.56
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.2056 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.8% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13% vs −3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−10.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −11.5% a year for the price.
Compare Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 827 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside+9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.05× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603161
Frequently asked questions
Is Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A (603161) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥16.45 versus a price of ¥15.03, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 603161?
Our model-based fair value for Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A is ¥16.45 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥15.03.
What is the quality score of 603161?
Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A (603161)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥16.45 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥12.35, optimistic scenario ¥20.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥16.45, about +9% upside versus a price of ¥15.03 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario ¥12.35, optimistic scenario ¥20.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A (603161)?
Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A pay a dividend?
Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.13% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A (603161)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A would have to grow free cash flow by -10.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 603161 use?
Our models discount Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.30, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A that is -10.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A (603161) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A grew +6.7 % a year. The price currently implies -10.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A (603161) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A (-10.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A (603161)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.46 %: that much free cash flow Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A (603161)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A it is ¥16.45 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥15.03. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 603161 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥15.03, fair value ¥16.45, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603161?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥15.03); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥16.45). For Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A the two are ¥1.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A worth?
The market values Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A at about 2.9B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥15.03; our models calculate a fair value of ¥16.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603161?
Our models span a range for Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A: cautious scenario ¥12.35, base ¥16.45, optimistic ¥20.56 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥15.03). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 603161?
Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥16.45 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.9, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 10.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A (603161)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.7%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603161 from its 52-week high?
Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A trades at ¥15.03, about 16% below its 52-week high of ¥17.86 and 24% above the low of ¥12.10 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥16.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥15.03, calculated fair value ¥16.45 (+9%), Quality Score 62/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603161 calculated?
We run Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥16.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A (603161)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was ¥15.03. Our model-based fair value is ¥16.45, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A (603161) come from?
Earnings per share at Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A grew −5.0 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.8 %, EBIT margin −13.8 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A
How large is the market capitalisation of Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A (603161)?
The market capitalisation of Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A is 2.9B CNY (≈ $436M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A (603161)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A is 1.45 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A (603161)?
Earnings per share at Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A are ¥0.4500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A (603161)?
The dividend yield of Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A is 1.1% (payout 37.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A (603161)?
The net margin of Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A is 4.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A (603161)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A is 5.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A (603161)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A (603161)?
The operating margin of Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A is 9.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A (603161)?
Revenue at Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A is growing −5.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A (603161)?
Earnings per share at Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A are growing −38.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A (603161) carry?
The net debt of Kehua Holdings Co Ltd Class A is 64.8M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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