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Kehua Holdings (603161) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 2.9B CNY

KH Kehua Holdings 603161 · SHG
Price¥15.49
Fair Value¥11.03
Upside-28.8%
Quality62/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 4.0% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
1.17% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
Narrow moat 41/100
Evidence: High Range ¥8.28 – ¥13.79 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 30 days ago

Share price +21.4% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 29% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥13.79). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥16.99 ¥6.44 Fair Value ¥11.03 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥6.44 – ¥16.99 · fair‑value band ¥8.28 – ¥13.79 · the ¥15.49 price screens above the ¥11.03 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

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Analysis

Kehua Holdings (603161) currently trades at ¥15.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥11.03, implying the stock looks roughly 28.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Kehua Holdings generated revenue of 2.2B CNY at a net margin of 4.0%. Revenue declined 5.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.7%. Net debt stands at 64.8M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥8.28 (bear case) to ¥13.79 (bull case); at ¥15.49, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -29%, 603161 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥31.72 ¥55.37 ¥94.56 80
Residual Income ¥6.15 ¥6.40 ¥6.56 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥15.32 ¥22.49 ¥32.09 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥32.28 ¥59.12 ¥105.87 38
Owner Earnings ¥18.48 ¥33.56 ¥59.84 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥15.32 ¥22.27 ¥31.04 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥20.75 ¥33.80 ¥50.01 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥16.22 ¥24.18 ¥33.00 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥20.64 ¥29.34 ¥41.67 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥24.42 ¥37.74 ¥57.65 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥21.44 ¥30.73 ¥43.33 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥3.41 ¥17.46 ¥24.13 54
Lynch FV ¥4.76 ¥6.80 ¥8.83 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥4.76 ¥6.80 ¥8.83 46
EPV ¥6.53 ¥7.44 ¥8.22 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥2.60 ¥5.18 ¥7.85 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥2.60 ¥4.48 ¥5.47 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥8.28 ¥11.03 ¥13.79 63
P/S Multiple ¥6.39 ¥8.53 ¥10.66 58
P/B Multiple ¥6.39 ¥8.53 ¥10.66 55
EV/EBIT ¥10.26 ¥13.42 ¥16.58 53
EV/EBITDA ¥16.28 ¥21.45 ¥26.61 54
EV/Revenue ¥7.18 ¥9.91 ¥12.65 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥3.89 ¥5.21 ¥7.77 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥31.72 ¥55.37 ¥94.56 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥15.32 ¥22.49 ¥32.09 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥6.15 ¥6.40 ¥6.56 76
ROIC Compounder ¥6.53 ¥7.44 ¥8.85 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥7.35 ¥10.50 ¥13.65 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥30.73) versus Dividend Discount (¥4.48). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 2.2B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) -5.0%
Net margin 4.0%
Return on equity 5.7%
Free cash flow 481M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 32.6
More key figures
Operating margin 8.7%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.4500
Dividend yield 1.2%
EPS growth (YoY) -38.5%
Net debt 64.8M CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 92
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 58
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 90
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 71
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 56
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 66
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 64
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Kehua Holdings Co.,Ltd engages in the production and sale of automotive turbocharger parts, engineering machinery parts, hydraulic pump valves, and new energy vehicle parts.

Full company description

Kehua Holdings Co.,Ltd engages in the production and sale of automotive turbocharger parts, engineering machinery parts, hydraulic pump valves, and new energy vehicle parts. It offers turbine and intermediate shell; differential and differential lock; chassis components, such as clamp body, bracket, and steering knuckle; counterweight block, planetary carrier, and bearing seat; and valve and pump body, and shell. The company also provides brake caliper assemblies for various pneumatic braking systems, such as light trucks, medium trucks, heavy trucks, 6-meter to 18 meter buses, trailers, and non-highway engineering vehicles. It sells its products to China, Mexico, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, India, and internationally. The company was formerly known as Liyang Kehua Machinery Manufacturing Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Kehua Holdings Co.,Ltd in June 2014. Kehua Holdings Co.,Ltd was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Changzhou, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Kehua Holdings reported revenue of ¥2.2B in FY2025 versus ¥1.9B in FY2021, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥97.5M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
2.2B CNY
Latest YoY
−5.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.7%
Avg. growth/yr (13Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+17.4%
Revenue +4.2%/yr
FY21 ¥1.9B
FY22 ¥2.3B
FY23 ¥2.6B
FY24 ¥2.4B
FY25 ¥2.2B
Net income
FY21 −¥46.8M
FY22 ¥19.5M
FY23 ¥123M
FY24 ¥105M
FY25 ¥97.5M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2013-2024) −5.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share +8.8 pp

of which total revenue +19.2 pp · buybacks/dilution −10.4 pp

EBIT margin −13.8 pp
Tax rate +1.3 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.4 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

603161 screens 29% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kehua Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603161

Peer Group

Specialty Industrial Machinery · 808 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 62 · Above median
Fair Value upside −29% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 9% · Above median
Revenue growth -5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.2% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.05× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 32.6× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.89× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.29× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 10.6× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 0 · sector 23
PAST 23 · sector 28
HEALTH 98 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 23 · sector 24

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
GE Vernova Inc 1GEV €887.60 €186.93 -79%
1SIE 1SIE €273.20 €91.93 -66%
SMNS SMNS C$31.76 C$22.68 -29%
Eaton Corporation ETN $407.28 $171.92 -58%
Atlas Copco AB ATCOA kr 195.15 kr 112.59 -42%
Sandvik AB SAND kr 384.10 kr 193.01 -50%
Doosan Enerbility Co 034020 76,400 KRW 7,938 KRW -90%
Vestas Wind Systems A/S VWS kr 178.10 kr 124.54 -30%
Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co 002050 ¥43.20 ¥22.68 -48%
NARI Technology Co 600406 ¥22.19 ¥18.71 -16%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Kehua Holdings (603161) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥11.03 versus a price of ¥15.49, about −29% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603161?
Our model-based fair value for Kehua Holdings is ¥11.03 (as of Jul 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥15.49.
What is the quality score of 603161?
Kehua Holdings has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Kehua Holdings (603161)?
Kehua Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 11, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 603161?
The net profit margin of Kehua Holdings is about 4.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Kehua Holdings pay a dividend?
Kehua Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.17% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 11, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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