Kehua Holdings (603161) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 2.9B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 30 days ago
Share price +21.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 29% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥13.79). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.44 – ¥16.99 · fair‑value band ¥8.28 – ¥13.79 · the ¥15.49 price screens above the ¥11.03 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Kehua Holdings (603161) currently trades at ¥15.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥11.03, implying the stock looks roughly 28.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Kehua Holdings generated revenue of 2.2B CNY at a net margin of 4.0%. Revenue declined 5.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.7%. Net debt stands at 64.8M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥8.28 (bear case) to ¥13.79 (bull case); at ¥15.49, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -29%, 603161 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥30.73) versus Dividend Discount (¥4.48). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Kehua Holdings Co.,Ltd engages in the production and sale of automotive turbocharger parts, engineering machinery parts, hydraulic pump valves, and new energy vehicle parts.
Full company description
Kehua Holdings Co.,Ltd engages in the production and sale of automotive turbocharger parts, engineering machinery parts, hydraulic pump valves, and new energy vehicle parts. It offers turbine and intermediate shell; differential and differential lock; chassis components, such as clamp body, bracket, and steering knuckle; counterweight block, planetary carrier, and bearing seat; and valve and pump body, and shell. The company also provides brake caliper assemblies for various pneumatic braking systems, such as light trucks, medium trucks, heavy trucks, 6-meter to 18 meter buses, trailers, and non-highway engineering vehicles. It sells its products to China, Mexico, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, India, and internationally. The company was formerly known as Liyang Kehua Machinery Manufacturing Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Kehua Holdings Co.,Ltd in June 2014. Kehua Holdings Co.,Ltd was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Changzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Kehua Holdings reported revenue of ¥2.2B in FY2025 versus ¥1.9B in FY2021, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥97.5M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +19.2 pp · buybacks/dilution −10.4 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
603161 screens 29% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →
Peer Group
Specialty Industrial Machinery · 808 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova Inc 1GEV | €887.60 | €186.93 | -79% |
| 1SIE 1SIE | €273.20 | €91.93 | -66% |
| SMNS SMNS | C$31.76 | C$22.68 | -29% |
| Eaton Corporation ETN | $407.28 | $171.92 | -58% |
| Atlas Copco AB ATCOA | kr 195.15 | kr 112.59 | -42% |
| Sandvik AB SAND | kr 384.10 | kr 193.01 | -50% |
| Doosan Enerbility Co 034020 | 76,400 KRW | 7,938 KRW | -90% |
| Vestas Wind Systems A/S VWS | kr 178.10 | kr 124.54 | -30% |
| Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co 002050 | ¥43.20 | ¥22.68 | -48% |
| NARI Technology Co 600406 | ¥22.19 | ¥18.71 | -16% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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