Hengbao Co (002104) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 8.2B CNY

A solid business, but screening 85% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥4.77 – ¥30.50 · fair‑value band ¥1.24 – ¥2.02 · the ¥11.16 price screens above the ¥1.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Hengbao Co (002104) currently trades at ¥11.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.66, implying the stock looks roughly 85.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Hengbao Co generated revenue of 745M CNY at a net margin of 1.9%. Revenue declined 49.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 617M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥1.24 (bear case) to ¥2.02 (bull case); at ¥11.16, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 65% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -32% fair-value upside, at -85%, 002104 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥2.35) versus Earnings-Based (¥1.01). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Hengbao Co.,Ltd. engages in the financial technology, Internet of Things, digital security and digital services in China and internationally. The company offers card payment and security services; blockchain finance, digital asset wallet, and supply chain financial platform; mobile communications and the internet of things, including sim, esim, and M2M card.

Full company description

Hengbao Co.,Ltd. engages in the financial technology, Internet of Things, digital security and digital services in China and internationally. The company offers card payment and security services; blockchain finance, digital asset wallet, and supply chain financial platform; mobile communications and the internet of things, including sim, esim, and M2M card. It also provides smart password key, electronic token, Bluetooth USBKEY, mobile smart terminal mobile phone shield, and other products; and tax security products, such as tax control disk, transmission disks, tax control Ukey, and PSAM cards. In addition, the company offers bluetooth secure reading and writing terminal, mPOS, mobile POS, and face recognition payment terminal; and one card cloud and mobile payment platform services. Further, it serves its products to financial industry, communications industry, mobile payment cloud platform, automotive, and composite material solutions. Hengbao Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Danyang, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Hengbao Co reported revenue of ¥866M in FY2025 versus ¥960M in FY2021, a compound −2.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥58.7M in FY2025, compounding +2.6%/yr from FY2021.

002104 screens 85% overvalued. Compare with Ricoh Company →

Peer Group

Business Equipment & Supplies · 73 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Business Equipment & Supplies median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.