Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co (603859) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co stock ¥19.36, price ¥37.43, that is 48.3% below the price, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 11 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥13.64 – ¥58.59 · fair‑value band ¥9.73 – ¥24.20 · the ¥37.43 price screens above the ¥19.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Nancal Technology Co.,Ltd provides digital transformation solutions in China and internationally. It offers cloud products and services, such as technical tools, enterprise applications, business microservices, and Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud services.
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The company also provides smart manufacturing services and products, including strategic planning and consulting services, simulation and testing services, test bench products, digital factory services, process automation services, ERP solutions, Internet enterprise informatization services, and IT software technology outsourcing services.
In addition, it offers software systems and services in local deployment, as well as full-process system services, including business consulting, solution design, software application and customization, software system integration, online debugging, personnel training and operation, and maintenance.
Further the company offers industrial engineering and industrial electrical products and services comprising digital manufacturing assembly lines, digital twin test benches; and smart electrical products, such as high-power high-voltage inverters, engineering inverters, soft starters, shore power supplies, power quality products, and energy management systems.
It provides its products and services to central enterprises and heavy industries, semiconductor electronics, automobiles and rail transit, equipment manufacturing, energy and infrastructure, new energy, and other industries. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.
Stock analysis
Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co (603859) currently trades at ¥37.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥19.36, 48% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥23.70 per share, and 0 of the 11 models we run sit above the ¥37.43 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at ¥3.13, and 11 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥9.73 (bear) to ¥24.20 (bull), the price of ¥37.43 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co reported revenue of 1.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was 226M CNY in FY2025, compounding +9.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 9.4B CNY (≈ $1.4B) Small · P/E ratio 44.0 · P/S ratio 8.39 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.8500 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 13.7% · Return on equity 7.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −48%, 603859 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥9.73Fair Value ¥19.36Bull¥24.20
Price ¥37.43 · Downside -48.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.6496 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +21.3% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.3% vs 7.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 25%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+14.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.5% a year for the forecasts.
Compare Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 305 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−48.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.5% · Above median
Return on assets6.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)18.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)15.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)44.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.02× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)8.39× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA50.8× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 51
FUTURE (revenue growth)7· sector 38
PAST (return on equity)30· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)5· sector 46
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603859
Frequently asked questions
Is Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co (603859) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥19.36 versus a price of ¥37.43, about 48% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603859?
Our model-based fair value for Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co is ¥19.36 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥37.43.
What is the quality score of 603859?
Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co (603859)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥19.36 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥9.73, optimistic scenario ¥24.20. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥19.36, about 48% lower versus a price of ¥37.43 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥9.73, optimistic scenario ¥24.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co (603859)?
Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co pay a dividend?
Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co currently shows a dividend yield of 0.24% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co (603859) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co pays a dividend of ¥0.09 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 9, 2026. The payout ratio is 10.6% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.60 times. Our assessment: Token dividend. At a yield of 0.2% the dividend is symbolic. On paper it is not fully covered by earnings or free cash flow, but at this size that hardly matters: even scrapping it entirely would cost less than 0.2% a year, and coverage ratios on amounts this small swing with ordinary working-capital movements. Judge this company on its business, not on its dividend.
What growth is priced into Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co (603859)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.9 % per year. Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 603859 use?
Our models discount Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.65, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co that is more than 80 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co (603859) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co grew +9.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of more than 80 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co (603859) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co (more than 80 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co (603859)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.15 % in the last fiscal year (free cash flow was negative over the last twelve months): that much free cash flow Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co (603859)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co it is ¥19.36 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of ¥37.43. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, 603859 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥37.43, fair value ¥19.36, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603859?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥37.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥19.36). For Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co the two are ¥18.07 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co worth?
The market values Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co at about 9.4B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is ¥37.43; our models calculate a fair value of ¥19.36 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603859?
Our models span a range for Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co: cautious scenario ¥9.73, base ¥19.36, optimistic ¥24.20 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price ¥37.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 603859?
Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 44.0 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥19.36 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.0, P/S 8.4, EV/EBITDA 50.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co (603859)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 7.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603859 from its 52-week high?
Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co trades at ¥37.43, about 36% below its 52-week high of ¥58.59 and 8% above the low of ¥34.75 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥19.36 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, Swire Pacific Limited, SGH Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price ¥37.43, calculated fair value ¥19.36 (−48%), Quality Score 46/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603859 calculated?
We run Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co through 11 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥19.36 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co (603859)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥37.43. Our model-based fair value is ¥19.36, about 48% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥24.20). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (46/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (¥9.73 to ¥24.20) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co (603859) come from?
Earnings per share at Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co grew +8.9 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.6 %, EBIT margin +2.1 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co (603859)?
The market capitalisation of Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co is 9.4B CNY (≈ $1.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co (603859)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co is 8.39 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co (603859)?
Earnings per share at Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co are ¥0.8500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 44.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co (603859)?
The dividend yield of Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co is 0.2% (payout 10.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co (603859)?
The net margin of Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co is 13.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co (603859)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co is 7.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co (603859)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co is 7.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co (603859)?
The operating margin of Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co is 15.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co (603859)?
Revenue at Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co is growing +1.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co (603859)?
Earnings per share at Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co are growing −31.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co (603859) hold?
Nancal Energy-Saving Tech Co holds more cash than debt, 300M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026