ChongQing Zhengchuan Pharmaceutical Packaging Co (603976) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 4.1B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from ¥3.34 to ¥2.75 (−17.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +5.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 90% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥3.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥11.57 – ¥51.19 · fair‑value band ¥2.06 – ¥3.44 · the ¥28.53 price screens above the ¥2.75 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
ChongQing Zhengchuan Pharmaceutical Packaging Co (603976) currently trades at ¥28.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.75, implying the stock looks roughly 90.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, ChongQing Zhengchuan Pharmaceutical Packaging Co generated revenue of 711M CNY at a net margin of 2.1%. Revenue grew 29.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.2%. Net debt stands at 121M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥2.06 (bear case) to ¥3.44 (bull case); at ¥28.53, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -90%, 603976 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥5.68) versus Earnings-Based (¥1.37). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 85
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
ChongQing Zhengchuan Pharmaceutical Packaging Co.,Ltd engages in the research and development, manufacturing, and selling of pharmaceutical glass packaging materials in China and internationally. It offers neutral borosilicate glass ampoule and tube injection bottles, low borosilicate tubular vial and ampoule bottles, oral liquid vials, and screw neck vials.
Full company description
ChongQing Zhengchuan Pharmaceutical Packaging Co.,Ltd engages in the research and development, manufacturing, and selling of pharmaceutical glass packaging materials in China and internationally. It offers neutral borosilicate glass ampoule and tube injection bottles, low borosilicate tubular vial and ampoule bottles, oral liquid vials, and screw neck vials. The company also provides aluminum caps, aluminum-plastic composite caps, and other medicinal caps. Its products are used in biological preparations, traditional Chinese medicine preparations, and chemical medicines. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Chongqing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ChongQing Zhengchuan Pharmaceutical Packaging Co reported revenue of ¥664M in FY2025 versus ¥797M in FY2021, a compound −4.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥18.9M in FY2025, compounding −35.1%/yr from FY2021.
603976 screens 90% overvalued. Compare with Stora Enso Oyj →
Peer Group
Packaging & Containers · 273 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stora Enso Oyj STER | kr 101.90 | kr 126.39 | +24% |
| ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co 002831 | ¥29.10 | ¥20.88 | -28% |
| SCG Packaging Public Company SCGP | 29.00 THB | 16.12 THB | -44% |
| AblePrint Technology Co 7734 | 2,850 TWD | 661.69 TWD | -77% |
| PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk, FASW | 5,312 IDR | 1,194 IDR | -78% |
| Taiwan Hon Chuan Enterprise Co 9939 | 132.50 TWD | 127.06 TWD | -4% |
| Time Technoplast Limited TIMETECHNO | ₹206.82 | ₹161.42 | -22% |
| EPL Limited 500135 | ₹222.25 | ₹111.65 | -50% |
| Ton Yi Industrial Corp 9907 | 15.15 TWD | 23.17 TWD | +53% |
| Dongwon Systems Corporation 014820 | 19,330 KRW | 31,473 KRW | +63% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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