Hangzhou Cogeneration Group (605011) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · CN · Market cap 7.1B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from ¥6.35 to ¥11.06 (+74.2%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +11.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 37% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥16.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (¥8.66 to ¥16.44) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥8.52 – ¥42.58 · fair‑value band ¥8.66 – ¥16.44 · the ¥17.54 price screens above the ¥11.06 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Hangzhou Cogeneration Group (605011) currently trades at ¥17.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥11.06, implying the stock looks roughly 36.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hangzhou Cogeneration Group generated revenue of 3.3B CNY at a net margin of 5.7%. Revenue grew 27.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 103M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥8.66 (bear case) to ¥16.44 (bull case); at ¥17.54, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -37%, 605011 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (¥7.92) versus Growth DCF (¥2.34). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hangzhou Cogeneration Group Co., Ltd. provides heat supply and power generation services in China. The company operates through the Thermal Power Business, Coal Business, and Others segments. It is also involved in coal, steam, electricity, and thermal power pipeline construction. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.
Full company description
Hangzhou Cogeneration Group Co., Ltd. provides heat supply and power generation services in China. The company operates through the Thermal Power Business, Coal Business, and Others segments. It is also involved in coal, steam, electricity, and thermal power pipeline construction. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China. Hangzhou Cogeneration Group Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Hangzhou Energy Group Co., Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hangzhou Cogeneration Group reported revenue of ¥3.2B in FY2025 versus ¥3.2B in FY2021, a compound −0.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥186M in FY2025, compounding −5.5%/yr from FY2021.
605011 screens 37% overvalued. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →
Peer Group
Utilities - Renewable · 220 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Yangtze Power Co 600900 | ¥27.99 | ¥25.13 | -10% |
| Ørsted A/S ORSTED | kr 149.70 | kr 31.40 | -79% |
| Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 | ¥9.81 | ¥5.57 | -43% |
| Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN | ₹1,537 | ₹170.50 | -89% |
| AXIA Energia SA AXIAP | $10.74 | $9.65 | -10% |
| VERBUND AG OEWA | €58.65 | €66.19 | +13% |
| BEP BEP | $32.33 | $73.35 | +127% |
| BEPUN BEPUN | C$44.56 | C$10.15 | -77% |
| Fortum Oyj FORTUM | €19.89 | €13.90 | -30% |
| China Longyuan Power Group 001289 | ¥16.21 | ¥8.23 | -49% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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