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Cansino Biologics Inc. (6185) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Cansino Biologics Inc. HK$5.81, price HK$31.82, upside -81.7%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · HK · Home China · ISIN CNE100003F01

CB Cansino Biologics Inc. logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Cansino Biologics Inc.

6185 · HK

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value HK$5.81 · Strongly overvalued (−82%)
!Quality 48/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +110.6 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · -0.1% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 2.6%
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/13)
!Narrow moat 9/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 22 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$416.79 HK$15.46 Fair Value HK$5.81 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$15.46 – HK$416.79 · fair‑value band HK$4.07 – HK$7.56 · the HK$31.82 price screens above the HK$5.81 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

CanSino Biologics Inc. develops, manufactures, and commercializes vaccines in the People's Republic of China. The company develops Convidecia and the Ad5-nCoV for Inhalation vaccines to recombinant novel coronavirus disease; Ad5-EBOV, an Ebola virus vaccine; and MCV2 and MCV4 vaccines for the prevention of N. meningitides.

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CanSino Biologics Inc. develops, manufactures, and commercializes vaccines in the People's Republic of China. The company develops Convidecia and the Ad5-nCoV for Inhalation vaccines to recombinant novel coronavirus disease; Ad5-EBOV, an Ebola virus vaccine; and MCV2 and MCV4 vaccines for the prevention of N. meningitides. It develops DTcP vaccine for infants and DTcP Booster vaccine, which are in Phase I clinical trial for addressing the weaker protection preventing pertussis after primary vaccination. In addition, it develops Tdcp Adolescent and Adult vaccine for treating pertussis; PBPV, a serotype-independent protein-based pneumococcal vaccine that is in Phase I clinical trial; PCV13i, a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, which is in Phase I clinical trial; and TB Booster for the BCG-vaccinated population which is in Phase I clinical trial. Further, it is developing various preclinical stage products, including DTcP-Hib Combo vaccine; CS-2023 to treat meningitis; CS-2028 for treating multivalent conjugate vaccine; CS-2032 for hingles; CS-2036 to treat polio; CS-2047 for treating tetanus; and CS-2201 DTcP for combination vaccine. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Tianjin, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

Cansino Biologics Inc. (6185) currently trades at HK$31.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$5.81, implying the stock looks roughly 447.6% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$13.10 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the HK$31.82 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$1.82, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$4.07 (bear) to HK$7.56 (bull), the price of HK$31.82 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Cansino Biologics Inc. reported revenue of 1.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound −30.0%/yr. Reported net income was 27.2M CNY in FY2025, compounding −65.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$8.1B (≈ $1.0B) · P/E ratio 179.8 · P/S ratio 4.73 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.1394 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 2.6% · Return on equity 0.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −82%, 6185 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$4.07 Fair Value HK$5.81 Bull HK$7.56
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.1024 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$12.48 HK$11.44 HK$7.27 73
Owner Earnings HK$4.12 HK$7.36 HK$13.37 70
EV/EBITDA HK$3.63 HK$4.47 HK$5.31 66
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings HK$4.12 HK$7.36 HK$13.37 70
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.7300 HK$5.08 HK$7.13 58
Lynch FV HK$2.63 HK$3.75 HK$4.88 57
PEG = 1.0 HK$2.63 HK$3.75 HK$4.88 53
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$1.96 HK$3.52 HK$4.85 63
DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.96 HK$3.22 HK$3.76 63
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$1.77 HK$2.36 HK$2.95 61
P/S Multiple HK$1.37 HK$1.82 HK$2.28 56
P/B Multiple HK$1.37 HK$1.82 HK$2.28 53
EV/EBITDA HK$3.63 HK$4.47 HK$5.31 66
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$9.78 HK$13.10 HK$19.56 52
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$12.48 HK$11.44 HK$7.27 73
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$3.48 HK$4.98 HK$6.47 64

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31

Profitability 15
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 72
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 17
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 75
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 70
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 25
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 44
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 16
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 66
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+110.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+71.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−56.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−57.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1,598% → −11%

6185 screens 448% overvalued. Compare with Merck KGaA →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 626 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 48 · Below median
Fair Value upside −82% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) −15% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 39% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.19× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 179.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B 0.21× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.92× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 12.9× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 14
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 21
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)90 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)22 · sector 32

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Merck KGaA MRK €133.15 €108.70 −18%
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company TAK $18.95 $11.29 −40%
Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276 ¥45.58 ¥50.14 +10%
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA ₹1,865 ₹1,979 +6%
Galderma Group GALD CHF 163.80 CHF 109.88 −33%
Haleon plc HLN $9.25 $8.50 −8%
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited TEVA $39.52 $20.75 −47%
Sandoz Group SDZ CHF 70.76 CHF 40.16 −43%
Zoetis Inc ZTS $72.86 $108.48 +49%
Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group 3692 HK$35.34 HK$38.87 +10%

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HK$5.81 −448%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cansino Biologics Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6185

Frequently asked questions

Is Cansino Biologics Inc. (6185) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$5.81 versus a price of HK$31.82, about −82% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 6185?
Our model-based fair value for Cansino Biologics Inc. is HK$5.81 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$31.82.
What is the quality score of 6185?
Cansino Biologics Inc. has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cansino Biologics Inc. (6185)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$5.81 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$4.07, optimistic scenario HK$7.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cansino Biologics Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$5.81, about −82% upside versus a price of HK$31.82 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$4.07, optimistic scenario HK$7.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cansino Biologics Inc. (6185)?
Cansino Biologics Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Cansino Biologics Inc. pay a dividend?
Cansino Biologics Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.10% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Cansino Biologics Inc. (6185)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cansino Biologics Inc. it is HK$5.81 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$31.82. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cansino Biologics Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 6185 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$31.82, fair value HK$5.81, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6185?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$31.82); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$5.81). For Cansino Biologics Inc. the two are HK$26.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cansino Biologics Inc. worth?
The market values Cansino Biologics Inc. at about HK$8.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$31.82; our models calculate a fair value of HK$5.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6185?
Our models span a range for Cansino Biologics Inc.: cautious scenario HK$4.07, base HK$5.81, optimistic HK$7.56 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$31.82). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 6185?
Cansino Biologics Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 179.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$5.81 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.2, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 12.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cansino Biologics Inc. (6185)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cansino Biologics Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 0.0%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 6185 from its 52-week high?
Cansino Biologics Inc. trades at HK$31.82, about 39% below its 52-week high of HK$52.30 and 52% above the low of HK$20.96 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$5.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cansino Biologics Inc.?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cansino Biologics Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$31.82, calculated fair value HK$5.81 (−82%), Quality Score 48/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6185 calculated?
We run Cansino Biologics Inc. through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$5.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Cansino Biologics Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cansino Biologics Inc. (6185)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was HK$31.82. Our model-based fair value is HK$5.81, about −82% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cansino Biologics Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$7.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (HK$4.07 to HK$7.56) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Cansino Biologics Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Cansino Biologics Inc. (6185)?
The market capitalisation of Cansino Biologics Inc. is HK$8.1B (≈ $1.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cansino Biologics Inc. (6185)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cansino Biologics Inc. is 4.73 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cansino Biologics Inc. (6185)?
Earnings per share at Cansino Biologics Inc. are HK$0.1394 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 179.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cansino Biologics Inc. (6185)?
The dividend yield of Cansino Biologics Inc. is 1.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cansino Biologics Inc. (6185)?
The net margin of Cansino Biologics Inc. is 2.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cansino Biologics Inc. (6185)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cansino Biologics Inc. is 0.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cansino Biologics Inc. (6185)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cansino Biologics Inc. is −4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cansino Biologics Inc. (6185)?
The operating margin of Cansino Biologics Inc. is −15.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cansino Biologics Inc. (6185)?
Revenue at Cansino Biologics Inc. is growing +38.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cansino Biologics Inc. (6185)?
Earnings per share at Cansino Biologics Inc. are growing +11.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Cansino Biologics Inc. (6185) generate?
The free cash flow of Cansino Biologics Inc. is −HK$153M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Cansino Biologics Inc. (6185) carry?
The net debt of Cansino Biologics Inc. is HK$52.8M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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