Cansino Biologics Inc. (6185) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · HK · Market cap HK$5.8B (≈ $736M) · ISIN CNE100003F01

What is Cansino Biologics Inc. really worth?

CB Cansino Biologics Inc. 6185 · HK

PriceHK$29.22

Fair ValueHK$4.93

Upside−83.1%

Quality48/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 493% above our fair value of HK$4.93.

As of Aug 13, 2026, the fair value of Cansino Biologics Inc. is HK$4.93 per share against a price of HK$29.22, so the fair value sits 83% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Risks

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +110.6 %/yr)

!Loss over the last twelve months · -0.1% net margin · fiscal year 2025 2.6%

!Low debt · negative free cash flow

!Trails peers (4/13)

!Narrow moat 9/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

!Weak on dividend: 22 out of 100

Evidence: Low Range HK$3.25 – HK$6.16

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 13 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Share price +23.9% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$6.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
A fairly wide model range (HK$3.25 to HK$6.16) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$15.46 – HK$416.79 · fair‑value band HK$3.25 – HK$6.16 · the HK$29.22 price screens above the HK$4.93 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Cansino Biologics Inc. (6185) currently trades at HK$29.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$4.93, implying the stock looks roughly 492.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$25.03 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the HK$29.22 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$3.48, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Cansino Biologics Inc. generated revenue of HK$1.1B at a net margin of −0.1%. Revenue grew 38.7% year over year. Net debt stands at HK$52.8M. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 179.8 (as of Jul 2, 2026). Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$3.25 (bear case) to HK$6.16 (bull case); at HK$29.22, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −83%, 6185 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.0951 per share, which is 1.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

Residual Income best evidence HK$24.94 HK$23.16 HK$15.81 74

Owner Earnings HK$3.89 HK$6.06 HK$10.44 72

EV/EBITDA HK$6.93 HK$8.54 HK$10.15 67

All 13 models by family

DCF Models

Owner Earnings HK$3.89 HK$6.06 HK$10.44 72

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$1.39 HK$9.71 HK$13.62 61

Lynch FV HK$5.01 HK$7.16 HK$9.31 59

PEG = 1.0 HK$5.01 HK$7.16 HK$9.31 55

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM HK$4.22 HK$8.41 HK$12.74 64

DDM Multi-Stage HK$4.22 HK$7.27 HK$8.88 65

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$3.38 HK$4.50 HK$5.63 63

P/S Multiple HK$2.61 HK$3.48 HK$4.35 58

P/B Multiple HK$2.61 HK$3.48 HK$4.35 55

EV/EBITDA HK$6.93 HK$8.54 HK$10.15 67

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$18.68 HK$25.03 HK$37.35 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income best evidence HK$24.94 HK$23.16 HK$15.81 74

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$6.66 HK$9.51 HK$12.36 65

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$25.03) versus Multiples (HK$3.48). Highest evidence: Residual Income (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 179.8 as of Jul 2, 2026

P/S ratio 4.73 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) HK$0.1394 price ÷ EPS = P/E 179.8

Dividend yield 1.1%

Net margin 2.6% FY2025

Return on equity 0.0% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) −4.7% avg 5y

Operating margin −15.2% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) HK$1.1B TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) +38.7% 3y avg +0.0%

EPS growth (YoY) +11.7%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow −HK$153M FY2025

Net debt HK$52.8M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26

Profitability 15

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 72

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 17

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 75

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 70

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 25

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 35

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 13

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 66

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Full company description

CanSino Biologics Inc. develops, manufactures, and commercializes vaccines in the People's Republic of China. The company develops Convidecia and the Ad5-nCoV for Inhalation vaccines to recombinant novel coronavirus disease; Ad5-EBOV, an Ebola virus vaccine; and MCV2 and MCV4 vaccines for the prevention of N. meningitides. It develops DTcP vaccine for infants and DTcP Booster vaccine, which are in Phase I clinical trial for addressing the weaker protection preventing pertussis after primary vaccination. In addition, it develops Tdcp Adolescent and Adult vaccine for treating pertussis; PBPV, a serotype-independent protein-based pneumococcal vaccine that is in Phase I clinical trial; PCV13i, a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, which is in Phase I clinical trial; and TB Booster for the BCG-vaccinated population which is in Phase I clinical trial. Further, it is developing various preclinical stage products, including DTcP-Hib Combo vaccine; CS-2023 to treat meningitis; CS-2028 for treating multivalent conjugate vaccine; CS-2032 for hingles; CS-2036 to treat polio; CS-2047 for treating tetanus; and CS-2201 DTcP for combination vaccine. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Tianjin, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Cansino Biologics Inc. reported revenue of 1.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound −30.0%/yr. Reported net income was 27.2M CNY in FY2025, compounding −65.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 58/100

The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

HK$1.0B

Latest YoY

+21.9%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+0.0%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+110.6%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (9Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+71.1%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

−56.4% · in HKD

Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.

Earnings growth per share−57.5%

Dividend yield1.1%

Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1,598.3% (2020) → −11.0% (2025) · rising

Worst earnings drop178% (2023) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in HKD

Revenue −30.0%/yr

FY21 4.3B CNY

FY22 1.0B CNY

FY23 345M CNY

FY24 846M CNY

FY25 1.0B CNY

Net income −65.5%/yr

FY21 1.9B CNY

FY22 −909M CNY

FY23 −1.5B CNY

FY24 −379M CNY

FY25 27.2M CNY

6185 screens 493% overvalued. Compare with Merck KGaA →

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Cansino Biologics Inc. · Fair Value
HK$4.93 −493%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cansino Biologics Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6185.HK

Peer Group

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 609 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 48 · Below median

Fair Value upside −83% · Bottom 25%

Return on assets −1% · Bottom 25%

Net margin (TTM) 0% · Below median

Operating margin (TTM) −15% · Bottom 25%

Revenue growth 39% · Top 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 1.1% · Below median

Debt / equity 0.19× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 179.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers

P/B 0.15× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/S (TTM) 0.66× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

EV/EBITDA 7.9× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE0 · sector 3

FUTURE100 · sector 22

PAST0 · sector 25

HEALTH90 · sector 97

DIVIDEND22 · sector 29

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Merck KGaA MRK	€140.25	€106.48	−24%
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company TAK	$18.03	$11.11	−38%
Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276	¥53.76	¥25.94	−52%
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA	₹1,899	₹989.50	−48%
Galderma Group GALD	CHF 178.55	CHF 55.07	−69%
Haleon plc HLN	$10.11	$7.64	−24%
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited TEVA	$36.05	$15.33	−57%
Sandoz Group SDZ	CHF 70.66	CHF 39.21	−45%
Zoetis Inc ZTS	$77.10	$104.88	+36%
Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group 3692	HK$35.12	HK$16.18	−54%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Cansino Biologics Inc. (6185) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$4.93 versus a price of HK$29.22, about −83% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of 6185?

Our model-based fair value for Cansino Biologics Inc. is HK$4.93 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$29.22.

What is the quality score of 6185?

Cansino Biologics Inc. has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Cansino Biologics Inc. (6185)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$4.93 (as of Aug 13, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$3.25, optimistic scenario HK$6.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Cansino Biologics Inc. stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$4.93, about −83% upside versus a price of HK$29.22 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$3.25, optimistic scenario HK$6.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Cansino Biologics Inc. (6185)?

Cansino Biologics Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.1B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 6185?

The net profit margin of Cansino Biologics Inc. is about −0.1%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does Cansino Biologics Inc. pay a dividend?

Cansino Biologics Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.10% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

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