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Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings (6868) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$2.9B

TC Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings 6868 · HK
PriceHK$2.64
Fair ValueHK$2.76
Upside+4.6%
Quality71/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 9.2% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
3.64% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
Narrow moat 42/100
Evidence: High Range HK$2.07 – HK$3.45 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 6, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 4 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 6, 2026, revised from HK$2.75 to HK$2.76 (+0.4%) since Jul 2, 2026. Share price +0.4% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • Our model range runs from HK$2.07 (bear) to HK$3.45 (bull), base HK$2.76. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 71/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$4.72 HK$2.42 Fair Value HK$2.76 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$2.42 – HK$4.72 · fair‑value band HK$2.07 – HK$3.45 · the HK$2.64 price screens below the HK$2.76 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.

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Analysis

Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings (6868) currently trades at HK$2.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.76, implying the stock looks roughly 4.6% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings generated revenue of HK$1.3B at a net margin of 9.2%. Revenue declined 12.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.9%. Net debt stands at HK$140M. Fundamentals as of Aug 6, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$2.07 (bear case) to HK$3.45 (bull case); at HK$2.64, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -3% fair-value upside, at 5%, 6868 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$3.96 HK$5.14 HK$7.11 80
Residual Income HK$1.33 HK$1.40 HK$1.46 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$2.50 HK$3.19 HK$4.07 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$3.81 HK$5.04 HK$7.26 38
Owner Earnings HK$2.61 HK$3.41 HK$4.83 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$2.50 HK$3.11 HK$3.99 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$3.34 HK$4.56 HK$6.18 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$2.71 HK$3.47 HK$4.39 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$2.98 HK$3.47 HK$3.97 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$3.51 HK$4.35 HK$5.23 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$3.13 HK$3.69 HK$4.20 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.7700 HK$0.9400 HK$1.06 54
EPV HK$1.57 HK$1.75 HK$1.90 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.8100 HK$0.8900 HK$1.00 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.8100 HK$1.00 HK$1.27 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$1.78 HK$2.38 HK$2.97 63
P/S Multiple HK$1.44 HK$1.92 HK$2.41 58
P/B Multiple HK$1.44 HK$1.92 HK$2.41 55
EV/EBIT HK$2.57 HK$3.28 HK$3.99 53
EV/EBITDA HK$3.45 HK$4.46 HK$5.46 54
EV/Revenue HK$1.73 HK$2.28 HK$2.84 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.8200 HK$1.11 HK$1.65 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$3.96 HK$5.14 HK$7.11 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$2.50 HK$3.19 HK$4.07 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$1.33 HK$1.40 HK$1.46 76
ROIC Compounder HK$1.57 HK$1.76 HK$1.97 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.26 HK$1.80 HK$2.34 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$3.47) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.8900). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$1.3B
Revenue growth (YoY) -12.9%
Net margin 9.2%
Return on equity 6.9%
Free cash flow HK$394M FY2025
P/E ratio 20.6
More key figures
Operating margin 14.0%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0400
Dividend yield 3.6%
EPS growth (YoY) +6.1%
Net debt HK$140M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 71/100

Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 33
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 78
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 82
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 31
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 27
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 84
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a traditional Chinese tea-product company. The company operates through Tea Leaves, Tea Snacks, and Tea Ware segments. It sells and markets various tea products; and develops product concepts, tastes, and packaging designs.

Full company description

Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a traditional Chinese tea-product company. The company operates through Tea Leaves, Tea Snacks, and Tea Ware segments. It sells and markets various tea products; and develops product concepts, tastes, and packaging designs. The company offers 1,300 varieties of traditional Chinese tea-leaf products; 300 varieties of tea snacks; and tea ware. It sells its products primarily under the Tenfu, Tenfu Ten Xin, and Uncle Lee brands. The company sells tea products in retail outlets and retail points, autonomous regions, and municipalities in the People's Republic of China, which include stores with shopfronts at street level; and shopping malls and concession counters in department stores and hypermarkets. The company also involved in the classification and packaging of tea leaves; provides tea drinks, including milk tea; manufacture and sale of tea snacks; catering management; beverage production; sale of pre-packaged food; sale of liquor and tea drink; property management activities; and provision of hotel, restaurant, tourist, and ticket sales from tea museums, and other ancillary services. Further, the company sells tea leaves, tea snacks, and tea ware through internet. Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings Company Limited was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Xiamen, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings reported revenue of HK$1.3B in FY2025 versus HK$1.9B in FY2021, a compound −8.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$123M in FY2025, compounding −23.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$1.3B
Latest YoY
−15.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−8.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−5.0%
Avg. growth/yr (17Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.1%
Revenue −8.9%/yr
FY21 HK$1.9B
FY22 HK$1.7B
FY23 HK$1.7B
FY24 HK$1.6B
FY25 HK$1.3B
Net income −23.6%/yr
FY21 HK$359M
FY22 HK$206M
FY23 HK$213M
FY24 HK$139M
FY25 HK$123M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −0.9 % p.a.
Revenue per share +1.2 pp

of which total revenue −0.2 pp · buybacks/dilution +1.4 pp

EBIT margin −2.1 pp
Tax rate +0.5 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings · Fair Value
HK$2.76 +5%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6868

Peer Group

Packaged Foods · 649 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +5% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 14% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -13% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.6% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.02× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 20.6× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.62× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.19× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.9× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 9.5× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 39 · sector 28
FUTURE 0 · sector 20
PAST 28 · sector 27
HEALTH 99 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 73 · sector 47

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 6, 2026).

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Samyang Foods Co 003230 1,139,000 KRW 1,010,543 KRW -11%
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Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM 58,500 VND 68,259 VND +17%
PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR 1,750 IDR 2,699 IDR +54%
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Frequently asked questions

Is Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings (6868) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.76 versus a price of HK$2.64, about +5% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 6868?
Our model-based fair value for Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings is HK$2.76 (as of Aug 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$2.64.
What is the quality score of 6868?
Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings (6868)?
Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.3B (latest available figure, as of Aug 6, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 6868?
The net profit margin of Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings is about 9.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 9.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings pay a dividend?
Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.64% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 6, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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