SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD (6887) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD HK$12.14, price HK$40.00, upside -69.7%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
14‑month range HK$28.00 – HK$59.90 · fair‑value band HK$9.11 – HK$15.18 · the HK$40.00 price screens above the HK$12.14 fair value. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Sunshine Lake Pharma Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of pharmaceutical products for the treatment of infectious diseases, chronic diseases, and oncology.
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Sunshine Lake Pharma Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of pharmaceutical products for the treatment of infectious diseases, chronic diseases, and oncology. It offers Kewei for the treatment of influenza; Dongweien for the treatment of hepatitis C; and generic drugs for the treatment of infections caused by sensitive bacteria, namely Clarithromycin, Levofloxacin, and Moxifloxacin Hydrochlorid, as well as active pharmaceutical ingredients. The company also engages in the wholesale, retail, import, and export of drugs. The company was formerly known as Sunshine Lake Pharma Ltd. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Dongguan, China.
Stock analysis
SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD (6887) currently trades at HK$40.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$12.14, implying the stock looks roughly 229.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of HK$15.34 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the HK$40.00 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$4.86, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$9.11 (bear) to HK$15.18 (bull), the price of HK$40.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD reported revenue of 4.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.8B CNY in FY2022, a compound +8.1%/yr. Reported net income was 272M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$23.0B (≈ $2.9B) · P/E ratio 58.9 · P/S ratio 3.33 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 5.7% · Return on equity 6.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.7% · Operating margin 17.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −70%, 6887 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$9.11Fair Value HK$12.14Bull HK$15.18
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−21% → 13%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+42.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +40.1% a year for the price.
Compare SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 629 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−70% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Below median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)18% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth100% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.29× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)58.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B4.53× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)4.09× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF12.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA17.7× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)25· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)85· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)54· sector 32
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6887
Frequently asked questions
Is SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD (6887) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$12.14 versus a price of HK$40.00, about −70% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 6887?
Our model-based fair value for SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD is HK$12.14 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$40.00.
What is the quality score of 6887?
SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD (6887)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$12.14 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$9.11, optimistic scenario HK$15.18. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$12.14, about −70% upside versus a price of HK$40.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$9.11, optimistic scenario HK$15.18. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD (6887)?
SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.8B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD pay a dividend?
SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.69% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD (6887)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD would have to grow free cash flow by +42.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +8.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 6887 use?
Our models discount SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD that is +42.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD (6887) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD grew +8.1 % a year. The price currently implies +42.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD (6887) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD (+42.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD (6887)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.16 %: that much free cash flow SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD (6887)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD it is HK$12.14 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$40.00. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 6887 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$40.00, fair value HK$12.14, a gap of about −70% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6887?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$40.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$12.14). For SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD the two are HK$27.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD worth?
The market values SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD at about HK$23.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$40.00; our models calculate a fair value of HK$12.14 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6887?
Our models span a range for SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD: cautious scenario HK$9.11, base HK$12.14, optimistic HK$15.18 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$40.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 6887?
SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 58.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$12.14 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.5, P/S 4.1, EV/EBITDA 17.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD (6887)?
Balance-sheet figures for SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 6.1%, debt of 0.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 6887 from its 52-week high?
SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD trades at HK$40.00, about 22% below its 52-week high of HK$51.60 and 43% above the low of HK$28.00 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$12.14 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$40.00, calculated fair value HK$12.14 (−70%), Quality Score 56/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6887 calculated?
We run SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$12.14, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD (6887)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$40.00. Our model-based fair value is HK$12.14, about −70% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$15.18). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD
How large is the market capitalisation of SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD (6887)?
The market capitalisation of SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD is HK$23.0B (≈ $2.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD (6887)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD is 3.33 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD (6887)?
The dividend yield of SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD is 2.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD (6887)?
The net margin of SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD is 5.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD (6887)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD is 6.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD (6887)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD is 3.7% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD (6887)?
The operating margin of SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD is 17.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD (6887)?
Revenue at SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD is growing +100% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD (6887) carry?
The net debt of SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD is 2.6B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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