Alfen N.V. (703) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Alfen N.V. €17.02, price €11.93, upside +42.7%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
10‑month range €8.11 – €19.71 · fair‑value band €11.20 – €28.55 · the €11.93 price screens below the €17.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Alfen N.V., through its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, develops, produces, and services smart grid solutions, energy storage systems, and electric vehicle (EV) charging equipment in the Netherlands, Finland, and Belgium.
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Alfen N.V., through its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, develops, produces, and services smart grid solutions, energy storage systems, and electric vehicle (EV) charging equipment in the Netherlands, Finland, and Belgium. The company offers in-house developed, produced, and an assembled range of secondary substations for grid operators; and microgrids and substations, as well as offerings to connect PV farms, EV fast-charging hubs, and industrial companies to the grid. It also provides smart and connected electric vehicle chargers for use at destinations, such as home, retail, workplace, and public locations; and stationary and mobile battery energy storage solutions for use in load balancing, peak shaving, grid frequency control, and energy trading. The company was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Almere, the Netherlands.
Stock analysis
Alfen N.V. (703) currently trades at €11.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €17.02, implying the stock looks roughly 29.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €7.74 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the €11.93 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €2.10, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: €11.20 (bear) to €28.55 (bull), the price of €11.93 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Alfen N.V. reported revenue of €436M in FY2025 versus €250M in FY2021, a compound +14.9%/yr. Reported net income was −€189K in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €290M · P/S ratio 0.66 · EPS (TTM) €−0.0100 · Net margin 0.0% · Return on equity −0.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.7% · Operating margin 1.9% · Revenue (TTM) €436M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at 43%, 703 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €11.20Fair Value €17.02Bull €28.55
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.22/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.3%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
11.1% (2021) → 0.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.5% a year for the price and +3.7% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electrical Equipment & Parts · 540 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside+42.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1.1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)1.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−7.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Electrical Equipment & Parts median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alfen N.V. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/703
Frequently asked questions
Is Alfen N.V. (703) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €17.02 versus a price of €11.93, about +43% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 703?
Our model-based fair value for Alfen N.V. is €17.02 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €11.93.
What is the quality score of 703?
Alfen N.V. has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alfen N.V. (703)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €17.02 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario €11.20, optimistic scenario €28.55. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alfen N.V. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €17.02, about +43% upside versus a price of €11.93 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €11.20, optimistic scenario €28.55. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alfen N.V. (703)?
Alfen N.V. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €436M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alfen N.V. (703)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alfen N.V. would have to grow free cash flow by +7.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +14.9 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 703 use?
Our models discount Alfen N.V. at 12.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.58, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alfen N.V. that is +7.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alfen N.V. (703) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Alfen N.V. grew +14.9 % a year. The price currently implies +7.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alfen N.V. (703) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alfen N.V. (+7.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alfen N.V. (703)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.15 %: that much free cash flow Alfen N.V. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alfen N.V. (703)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alfen N.V. it is €17.02 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of €11.93. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alfen N.V. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 703 trades below its calculated fair value: price €11.93, fair value €17.02, a gap of about +43% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 703?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€11.93); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€17.02). For Alfen N.V. the two are €5.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alfen N.V. worth?
The market values Alfen N.V. at about €290M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is €11.93; our models calculate a fair value of €17.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 703?
Our models span a range for Alfen N.V.: cautious scenario €11.20, base €17.02, optimistic €28.55 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price €11.93). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alfen N.V. (703)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alfen N.V. (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −0.1%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Alfen N.V.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, ABB Ltd, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, Vertiv Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alfen N.V. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price €11.93, calculated fair value €17.02 (+43%), Quality Score 61/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 703 calculated?
We run Alfen N.V. through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €17.02, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Alfen N.V. currently trades 30 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alfen N.V. (703)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €11.93. Our model-based fair value is €17.02, about +43% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alfen N.V. right now?
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€11.20 to €28.55) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Alfen N.V.
How large is the market capitalisation of Alfen N.V. (703)?
The market capitalisation of Alfen N.V. is €290M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alfen N.V. (703)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alfen N.V. is 0.66 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alfen N.V. (703)?
Earnings per share at Alfen N.V. are €−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Alfen N.V. (703)?
The net margin of Alfen N.V. is 0.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alfen N.V. (703)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alfen N.V. is −0.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alfen N.V. (703)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alfen N.V. is 7.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alfen N.V. (703)?
The operating margin of Alfen N.V. is 1.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alfen N.V. (703)?
Revenue at Alfen N.V. is growing −7.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Alfen N.V. (703) carry?
The net debt of Alfen N.V. is €4.3M (fiscal year 2023, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026