GME Group Holdings Ltd (8188) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$577M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price −4.3% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 154% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$1.51). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The model range is unusually wide (HK$1.51 to HK$6.97). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0415 – HK$1.37 · fair‑value band HK$1.51 – HK$6.97 · the HK$1.23 price screens below the HK$3.11 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
GME Group Holdings Ltd (8188) currently trades at HK$1.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.11, implying the stock looks roughly 153.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, GME Group Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$941M at a net margin of 9.3%. Revenue grew 56.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 45.8%. Net debt stands at HK$69.1M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$1.51 (bear case) to HK$6.97 (bull case); at HK$1.23, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at 154%, 8188 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$7.80) versus Growth DCF (HK$0.2000). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
GME Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the provision of underground construction services in Hong Kong.
Full company description
GME Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the provision of underground construction services in Hong Kong. It provides tunnel construction services including excavation, shotcreting, shutter design and fabrication, and tunnel lining services, as well as shafts, advanced, and structural works; utility construction comprising construction and refurbishment of underground public utility works, such as road and drainage works; and other services comprising structural works and construction of service buildings and support structures. The company primarily serves main contractors in public sector infrastructure projects. GME Group Holdings Limited was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
GME Group Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$941M in FY2025 versus HK$444M in FY2021, a compound +20.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$87.3M in FY2025, compounding +70.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +24.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.1 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch 8188: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Engineering & Construction · 837 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹4,020 | ₹1,994 | -50% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 357,500 KRW | 261,411 KRW | -27% |
| Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co 000720 | 113,700 KRW | 61,453 KRW | -46% |
| Samsung E&A Co 028050 | 49,300 KRW | 43,624 KRW | -12% |
| Rail Vikas Nigam Limited RVNL | ₹230.00 | ₹48.92 | -79% |
| Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co 047040 | 18,400 KRW | 6,507 KRW | -65% |
| KEPCO Engineering & Construction Company 052690 | 99,800 KRW | 19,346 KRW | -81% |
| GS Engineering & Construction Corporation 006360 | 35,200 KRW | 23,135 KRW | -34% |
| DL E&C Co 375500 | 73,500 KRW | 148,433 KRW | +102% |
| KEPCO Plant Service & Engineering Co 051600 | 46,350 KRW | 43,924 KRW | -5% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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