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Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group (8223) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group HK$0.23, price HK$0.11, upside +119.1%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · HK · ISIN KYG9898B1041

ZH Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group

8223 · HK

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value HK$0.2300 · Strongly undervalued (+119.1%)
!Quality 46/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +53.8 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -2.2% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (4/11)
!Narrow moat 8/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$2.78 HK$0.1030 Fair Value HK$0.2300 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.1030 – HK$2.78 · fair‑value band HK$0.1950 – HK$0.2650 · the HK$0.1050 price screens below the HK$0.2300 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides medical equipment finance leasing services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Finance Leasing Service, Postpartum Care Service, Trading Business, and Other segments. It offers direct finance leasing and sale-leaseback services.

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Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides medical equipment finance leasing services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Finance Leasing Service, Postpartum Care Service, Trading Business, and Other segments. It offers direct finance leasing and sale-leaseback services. The company also provides maternal and child postpartum care services; IT services; and technological services. In addition, it trades in medical equipment and consumables, such as dental, maternal and child, and large hospital medical equipment, as well as aesthetic medicine. The company was founded in 2014 and is based in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China. Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group Limited is a subsidiary of Hero Global Limited.

Stock analysis

Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group (8223) currently trades at HK$0.1050, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2300, implying the stock looks roughly 54.3% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$0.4500 per share, and 6 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$0.1050 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.3100, and 0 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$0.1950 (bear) to HK$0.2650 (bull), the price of HK$0.1050 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group reported revenue of 503M CNY in FY2025 versus 119M CNY in FY2021, a compound +43.3%/yr. Reported net income was −10.4M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$117M (≈ $14.9M) · P/S ratio 0.24 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0200 · Net margin −2.1% · Return on equity −3.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.3% · Operating margin −3.2% · Revenue (TTM) 482M CNY.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 91% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 37% fair-value upside, at 119%, 8223 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.1950 Fair Value HK$0.2300 Bull HK$0.2650
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0150 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV HK$0.2600 HK$0.3100 HK$0.3600 74
ROIC Compounder HK$0.2600 HK$0.3100 HK$0.3600 72
EV/EBITDA HK$0.4500 HK$0.6100 HK$0.7800 67
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV HK$0.2600 HK$0.3100 HK$0.3600 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT HK$0.3000 HK$0.4100 HK$0.5300 66
EV/EBITDA HK$0.4500 HK$0.6100 HK$0.7800 67
EV/Revenue HK$0.3000 HK$0.4500 HK$0.6000 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.3300 HK$0.4500 HK$0.6700 54
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder HK$0.2600 HK$0.3100 HK$0.3600 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15

Profitability 15
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 49
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 43
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 83
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 0
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 68
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+53.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +46.8% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+46.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
29.3% (2020) → 3.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Compare Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Distribution · 78 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside +119.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −1.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −2.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −3.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −13.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.15× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Distribution median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.05× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.03× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 2.1× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 41
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 12
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)92 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 58

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Medical Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
McKesson Corporation MCK $864.82 $822.74 −5%
Cencora, Inc COR $306.92 $215.20 −30%
Cardinal Health, Inc CAH $220.29 $162.84 −26%
Henry Schein, Inc HSIC $86.37 $76.77 −11%
Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding 601607 ¥16.02 ¥42.67 +166%
Sinopharm Group 1099 HK$14.88 HK$55.77 +275%
Galenica AG GALE CHF 82.55 CHF 61.79 −25%
Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings 600332 ¥19.39 ¥26.64 +37%
Jointown Pharmaceutical Group 600998 ¥5.05 ¥9.84 +95%
China National Medicines Corporation 600511 ¥25.80 ¥58.47 +127%

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HK$0.2300 +54%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8223

Frequently asked questions

Is Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group (8223) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.2300 versus a price of HK$0.1050, about +119% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 8223?
Our model-based fair value for Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group is HK$0.2300 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.1050.
What is the quality score of 8223?
Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group (8223)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.2300 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.1950, optimistic scenario HK$0.2650. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.2300, about +119% upside versus a price of HK$0.1050 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1950, optimistic scenario HK$0.2650. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group (8223)?
Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 482M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group (8223)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group it is HK$0.2300 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.1050. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 8223 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.1050, fair value HK$0.2300, a gap of about +119% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8223?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.1050); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.2300). For Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group the two are HK$0.1250 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group worth?
The market values Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group at about HK$117M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.1050; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.2300 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8223?
Our models span a range for Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group: cautious scenario HK$0.1950, base HK$0.2300, optimistic HK$0.2650 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.1050). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group (8223)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −3.6%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8223 from its 52-week high?
Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group trades at HK$0.1050, about 91% below its 52-week high of HK$1.12 and 2% above the low of HK$0.1030 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.2300 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value McKesson Corporation, Cencora, Inc, Cardinal Health, Inc, Henry Schein, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.1050, calculated fair value HK$0.2300 (+119%), Quality Score 46/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8223 calculated?
We run Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.2300, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group currently trades 54 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group (8223)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.1050. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.2300, about +119% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.1950). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group

How large is the market capitalisation of Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group (8223)?
The market capitalisation of Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group is HK$117M (≈ $14.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group (8223)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group is 0.24 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group (8223)?
Earnings per share at Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group are HK$0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group (8223)?
The net margin of Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group is −2.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group (8223)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group is −3.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group (8223)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group is 3.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group (8223)?
The operating margin of Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group is −3.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group (8223)?
Revenue at Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group is growing −13.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group (8223)?
Earnings per share at Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group are growing +11.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group (8223) generate?
The free cash flow of Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group is −36.3M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group (8223) carry?
The net debt of Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group is 228M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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