Capital Finance Holdings Ltd (8239) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$1.8B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price +6.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 60% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$13.21). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (HK$5.00 to HK$13.21). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.4000 – HK$20.64 · fair‑value band HK$5.00 – HK$13.21 · the HK$20.64 price screens above the HK$8.18 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Capital Finance Holdings Ltd (8239) currently trades at HK$20.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$8.18, implying the stock looks roughly 60.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Capital Finance Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$40.6M at a net margin of -78.7%. Revenue grew 102.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -54.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$23.2M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$5.00 (bear case) to HK$13.21 (bull case); at HK$20.64, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -60%, 8239 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (HK$7.43) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.0800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 84
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Capital Finance Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides short-term financing services in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong.
Full company description
Capital Finance Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides short-term financing services in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. It offers pawn and entrusted loans, micro-financing services, financial consultancy, entrusted loan, and distressed debt assets management services, as well as money lending, administrative, and consultancy services, as well as information technology solution services. The company was formerly known as Ming Kei Holdings Limited and changed its name to Capital Finance Holdings Limited in November 2014. Capital Finance Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Capital Finance Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$41.8M in FY2025 versus HK$2.2M in FY2021, a compound +109.7%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$31.9M in FY2025.
8239 screens 60% overvalued. Compare with Visa Inc →
Peer Group
Credit Services · 333 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Credit Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Visa Inc V | $359.42 | $198.27 | -45% |
| Mastercard Incorporated MA | $561.44 | $221.87 | -60% |
| Bajaj Finance Limited BAJFINANCE | ₹1,094 | ₹397.61 | -64% |
| Shriram Finance Limited SHRIRAMFIN | ₹1,117 | ₹553.83 | -50% |
| Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company CHOLAFIN | ₹1,918 | ₹796.52 | -58% |
| Tata Capital Limited TATACAP | ₹367.05 | ₹149.40 | -59% |
| Power Finance Corporation PFC | ₹376.50 | ₹615.85 | +64% |
| Muthoot Finance Limited MUTHOOTFIN | ₹2,876 | ₹3,429 | +19% |
| Indian Railway Finance Corporation IRFC | ₹88.35 | ₹69.72 | -21% |
| REC Limited RECLTD | ₹346.00 | ₹692.00 | +100% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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