Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · IN · Market cap ₹1.2T
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −0.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 22% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹87.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹17.53 – ₹210.11 · fair‑value band ₹52.29 – ₹87.16 · the ₹89.29 price screens above the ₹69.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC) currently trades at ₹89.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹69.72, implying the stock looks roughly 21.9% overvalued today. We read business quality at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Indian Railway Finance Corporation generated revenue of ₹72.1B at a net margin of 97.2%. Revenue grew 0.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.8%. Net debt stands at ₹4.4T. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ₹52.29 (bear case) to ₹87.16 (bull case); at ₹89.29, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -41% fair-value upside, at -22%, IRFC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (₹146.51) versus Asset-Based (₹29.09). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited engages in leasing of rolling stock and railway infrastructure assets in India. The company also engages in lending business; and borrowing funds from commercial markets, financial markets to finance the acquisition/creation of assets that are leased out to the Indian Railways.
Full company description
Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited engages in leasing of rolling stock and railway infrastructure assets in India. The company also engages in lending business; and borrowing funds from commercial markets, financial markets to finance the acquisition/creation of assets that are leased out to the Indian Railways. Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited was incorporated in 1986 and is based in New Delhi, India.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Indian Railway Finance Corporation reported revenue of ₹273B in FY2026 versus ₹203B in FY2022, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was ₹70.1B in FY2026, compounding +3.6%/yr from FY2022.
IRFC screens 22% overvalued. Compare with Visa Inc →
Peer Group
Credit Services · 333 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Credit Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Visa Inc V | $348.97 | $204.19 | -41% |
| Mastercard Incorporated MA | $537.70 | $221.87 | -59% |
| American Express Company AXP | $358.44 | $206.40 | -42% |
| Bajaj Finance Limited BAJFINANCE | ₹1,056 | ₹397.61 | -62% |
| Shriram Finance Limited SHRIRAMFIN | ₹1,024 | ₹553.83 | -46% |
| Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company CHOLAFIN | ₹1,808 | ₹796.52 | -56% |
| Tata Capital Limited TATACAP | ₹360.60 | ₹229.85 | -36% |
| Power Finance Corporation PFC | ₹405.10 | ₹810.20 | +100% |
| Muthoot Finance Limited MUTHOOTFIN | ₹3,129 | ₹3,463 | +11% |
| REC Limited RECLTD | ₹352.45 | ₹704.90 | +100% |
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Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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