Mastercard Inc (MA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Mastercard Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $277.07 – $599.86 · fair‑value band $166.40 – $551.13 · the $567.65 price screens above the $350.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
Mastercard Incorporated, a technology company, provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally.
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Mastercard Incorporated, a technology company, provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally. The company offers products and services for account holders, merchants, financial institutions, digital partners, businesses, governments, and other organizations, such as programs that enable issuers to provide consumers with credits to defer payments; payment products and solutions that allow its customers to access funds in deposit and other accounts; prepaid programs services; consumer bill payment services; and commercial credit, debit, and prepaid payment products and solutions. It also provides solutions that enable businesses or governments to make payments to businesses, including Virtual Card Number, which is generated dynamically from an existing account and leverages the credit limit of the funding account; and a platform to optimize supplier payment enablement campaigns for financial institutions. In addition, the company offers Mastercard Move, which partners with digital messaging and payment platforms to enable consumers to send money directly within applications to other consumers; and partners with central banks, fintechs, and financial institutions, as well as enables various cross-border payment flows. Further, it provides security solutions; marketing, personalization, and issuer and merchant loyalty services; business and operational intelligence, advanced analytics and AI, consulting and agentic solutions, and payments and portfolio optimization; digital and authentication; processing and gateway solutions; and other solutions. The company offers payment solutions and services under the MasterCard, Maestro, and Cirrus names. Mastercard Incorporated was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.
Stock analysis
Mastercard Inc (MA) currently trades at $567.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $350.52, implying the stock looks roughly 61.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $341.49 per share, and 1 of the 13 models we run sit above the $567.65 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $54.06, and 12 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $166.40 (bear) to $551.13 (bull), the price of $567.65 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 82/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Mastercard Inc reported revenue of $32.8B in FY2025 versus $18.9B in FY2021, a compound +14.8%/yr. Reported net income was $15.0B in FY2025, compounding +14.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $510B · P/E ratio 32.6 · P/S ratio 14.9 · EPS (TTM) $17.30 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 45.6% · Return on equity 232% · Return on assets (EBIT) 31.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −38%, MA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $166.40Fair Value $350.52Bull $551.13
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($10.19 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.5%
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+17.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16% vs 17%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.53% → 59%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Credit Services · 333 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score83 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−62% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)232% · Top 25%
Return on assets25% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)46% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)61% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth16% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.36× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)32.6× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)13.71× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF27.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA22.1× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.62× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 40
FUTURE (revenue growth)79· sector 38
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 58
DIVIDEND (yield)11· sector 71
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mastercard Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MA
Frequently asked questions
Is Mastercard Inc (MA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $350.52 versus a price of $567.65, about −38% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MA?
Our model-based fair value for Mastercard Inc is $350.52 (as of Sep 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $567.65.
What is the quality score of MA?
Mastercard Inc has a Quality Score of 82/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mastercard Inc (MA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $350.52 (as of Sep 17, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $166.40, optimistic scenario $551.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mastercard Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $350.52, about −38% upside versus a price of $567.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $166.40, optimistic scenario $551.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mastercard Inc (MA)?
Mastercard Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $33.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 17, 2026).
Does Mastercard Inc pay a dividend?
Mastercard Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.57% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 17, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mastercard Inc (MA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mastercard Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +12.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.5 % per year. As of Sep 17, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MA use?
Our models discount Mastercard Inc at 8.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.74, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mastercard Inc that is +12.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mastercard Inc (MA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mastercard Inc grew +16.5 % a year. The price currently implies +12.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mastercard Inc (MA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mastercard Inc (+12.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mastercard Inc (MA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.33 %: that much free cash flow Mastercard Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mastercard Inc (MA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mastercard Inc it is $350.52 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026), against a price of $567.65. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mastercard Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 17, 2026, MA trades above its calculated fair value: price $567.65, fair value $350.52, a gap of about −38% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($567.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($350.52). For Mastercard Inc the two are $217.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mastercard Inc worth?
The market values Mastercard Inc at about $510B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 17, 2026). Per share that is $567.65; our models calculate a fair value of $350.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MA?
Our models span a range for Mastercard Inc: cautious scenario $166.40, base $350.52, optimistic $551.13 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026, price $567.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MA?
Mastercard Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.6 (as of Sep 17, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $350.52 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/S 13.7, EV/EBITDA 22.1.
What is the PEG ratio of MA?
The PEG ratio of Mastercard Inc is 1.62 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 17, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mastercard Inc (MA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mastercard Inc (as of Sep 17, 2026): return on equity 232.1%, debt of 2.36 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 82/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MA from its 52-week high?
Mastercard Inc trades at $567.65, about 5% below its 52-week high of $599.05 and 22% above the low of $464.52 (as of Sep 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $350.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mastercard Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, Bajaj Finance Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mastercard Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 17, 2026: price $567.65, calculated fair value $350.52 (−38%), Quality Score 82/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MA calculated?
We run Mastercard Inc through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $350.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Mastercard Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mastercard Inc (MA)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $567.65. Our model-based fair value is $350.52, about −38% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mastercard Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 82/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($551.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($166.40 to $551.13). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Mastercard Inc (MA) come from?
Earnings per share at Mastercard Inc grew +17.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +15.1 %, EBIT margin +0.7 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mastercard Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Mastercard Inc (MA)?
The market capitalisation of Mastercard Inc is $510B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mastercard Inc (MA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mastercard Inc is 14.9 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mastercard Inc (MA)?
Earnings per share at Mastercard Inc are $17.30 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 32.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mastercard Inc (MA)?
The dividend yield of Mastercard Inc is 0.6% (payout 18.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mastercard Inc (MA)?
The net margin of Mastercard Inc is 45.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mastercard Inc (MA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mastercard Inc is 232% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mastercard Inc (MA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mastercard Inc is 31.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mastercard Inc (MA)?
The operating margin of Mastercard Inc is 60.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mastercard Inc (MA)?
Revenue at Mastercard Inc is growing +15.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mastercard Inc (MA)?
Earnings per share at Mastercard Inc are growing +21.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mastercard Inc (MA) carry?
The net debt of Mastercard Inc is $8.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 17, 2026