Mastercard Incorporated (MA) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $465B
Mastercard Incorporated
MA · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price +8.5% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 61% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($561.35). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($166.40 to $561.35). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $277.07 – $595.25 · fair‑value band $166.40 – $561.35 · the $575.95 price screens above the $221.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Mastercard Incorporated (MA) currently trades at $575.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $221.87, implying the stock looks roughly 61.5% overvalued today. We read business quality at 77/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Mastercard Incorporated generated revenue of $33.9B at a net margin of 45.9%. Revenue grew 15.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 232.1%. Net debt stands at $8.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $166.40 (bear case) to $561.35 (bull case); at $575.95, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -36% fair-value upside, at -61%, MA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($417.84) versus Asset-Based ($5.91). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 80 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Mastercard Incorporated, a technology company, provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
Mastercard Incorporated, a technology company, provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally. The company offers products and services for account holders, merchants, financial institutions, digital partners, businesses, governments, and other organizations, such as programs that enable issuers to provide consumers with credits to defer payments; payment products and solutions that allow its customers to access funds in deposit and other accounts; prepaid programs services; consumer bill payment services; and commercial credit, debit, and prepaid payment products and solutions. It also provides solutions that enable businesses or governments to make payments to businesses, including Virtual Card Number, which is generated dynamically from an existing account and leverages the credit limit of the funding account; and a platform to optimize supplier payment enablement campaigns for financial institutions. In addition, the company offers Mastercard Move, which partners with digital messaging and payment platforms to enable consumers to send money directly within applications to other consumers; and partners with central banks, fintechs, and financial institutions, as well as enables various cross-border payment flows. Further, it provides security solutions; marketing, personalization, and issuer and merchant loyalty services; business and operational intelligence, advanced analytics and AI, consulting and agentic solutions, and payments and portfolio optimization; digital and authentication; processing and gateway solutions; and other solutions. The company offers payment solutions and services under the MasterCard, Maestro, and Cirrus names. Mastercard Incorporated was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Mastercard Incorporated reported revenue of $32.8B in FY2025 versus $18.9B in FY2021, a compound +14.8%/yr. Reported net income was $15.0B in FY2025, compounding +14.6%/yr from FY2021.
MA screens 61% overvalued. Compare with Visa Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Zacks Industry Outlook Visa, Mastercard, PayPal, Fidelity and WEX
- Mastercard (MA) vs. Visa (V): Stablecoins or AI Fraud Defense?
- Visa (V) vs. Mastercard (MA): $2.4B BioCatch Acquisition Escalates the Payments Security War
Peer Group
Credit Services · 333 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Credit Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Visa Inc V | $348.97 | $204.19 | -41% |
| American Express Company AXP | $358.44 | $206.40 | -42% |
| Bajaj Finance Limited BAJFINANCE | ₹1,056 | ₹397.61 | -62% |
| Shriram Finance Limited SHRIRAMFIN | ₹1,024 | ₹553.83 | -46% |
| Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company CHOLAFIN | ₹1,808 | ₹796.52 | -56% |
| Tata Capital Limited TATACAP | ₹360.60 | ₹229.85 | -36% |
| Power Finance Corporation PFC | ₹405.10 | ₹810.20 | +100% |
| Muthoot Finance Limited MUTHOOTFIN | ₹3,129 | ₹3,463 | +11% |
| Indian Railway Finance Corporation IRFC | ₹88.41 | ₹69.72 | -21% |
| REC Limited RECLTD | ₹352.45 | ₹704.90 | +100% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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