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Data-driven stock valuation

Mastercard Inc (MA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mastercard Inc stock $360, price $656, that is 45.1% below the price, quality 85 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 11 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US

MI Mastercard Inc logo Broad data Nov 5, 2026

Mastercard Inc

MA · US
Strong quality, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 45% below what the stock costs today.

Quality 85/100
Highly profitable · 46.7% net margin (TTM)
0.5% dividend yield · Low payout
Wide moat 98/100
Broad data
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +16.5 %/yr in USD)
Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
Neutral coverage
Insiders sold $70.8M (6M)
Fair value $360.13 · Strongly overvalued (−45.1%)

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Stablecoins could bypass card rails🚩Interchange fee rulings could cut margins

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$672.68 $277.07 Fair Value $360.13 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $277.07 – $672.68 · fair‑value band $168.78 – $563.96 · the $655.92 price screens above the $360.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.

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Company profile

Mastercard Incorporated, a technology company, provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally.

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The company offers products and services for account holders, merchants, financial institutions, digital partners, businesses, governments, and other organizations, such as programs that enable issuers to provide consumers with credits to defer payments; payment products and solutions that allow its customers to access funds in deposit and other accounts; prepaid programs services; consumer bill payment services; and commercial credit, debit, and prepaid payment products and solutions.

It also provides solutions that enable businesses or governments to make payments to businesses, including Virtual Card Number, which is generated dynamically from an existing account and leverages the credit limit of the funding account; and a platform to optimize supplier payment enablement campaigns for financial institutions.

In addition, the company offers Mastercard Move, which partners with digital messaging and payment platforms to enable consumers to send money directly within applications to other consumers; and partners with central banks, fintechs, and financial institutions, as well as enables various cross-border payment flows.

Further, it provides security solutions; marketing, personalization, and issuer and merchant loyalty services; business and operational intelligence, advanced analytics and AI, consulting and agentic solutions, and payments and portfolio optimization; digital and authentication; processing and gateway solutions; and other solutions.

The company offers payment solutions and services under the MasterCard, Maestro, and Cirrus names. Mastercard Incorporated was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.

Stock analysis

Mastercard Inc (MA) currently trades at $655.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $360.13, 45% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $360.13 per share, and 0 of the 11 models we run sit above the $655.92 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $51.06, and 11 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $168.78 (bear) to $563.96 (bull), the price of $655.92 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 85/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Mastercard Inc reported revenue of $32.8B in FY2025 versus $18.9B in FY2021, a compound +14.8%/yr. Reported net income was $15.0B in FY2025, compounding +14.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $579B Mega · P/E ratio 34.1 · P/S ratio 16.0 · EPS (TTM) $19.11 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 46.7% · Return on equity 231% · Return on assets (EBIT) 31.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 98 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −45%, MA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $168.78 Fair Value $360.13 Bull $563.96
Price $655.92 · Downside -45.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($13.27 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Growth DCF $282.53 $542.56 $1,043 74
Owner Earnings $250.83 $499.17 $978.74 72
Rev-Margin DCF $114.96 $176.03 $247.86 72
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $250.83 $499.17 $978.74 72
5Y P/E Exit $188.90 $329.81 $491.58 70
10Y P/E Exit $216.97 $360.13 $563.96 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $117.71 $585.65 $807.95 64
Lynch FV $158.14 $225.91 $293.68 61
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $31.54 $71.11 $124.85 65
DDM Multi-Stage $31.54 $57.13 $73.75 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $168.78 $225.04 $281.30 63
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $282.53 $542.56 $1,043 74
Rev-Margin DCF $114.96 $176.03 $247.86 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income $33.54 $51.06 $126.20 68

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 85/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 86
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 72
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 86
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 65
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 69
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 81
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 62
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 73
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 98
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 8 officers or directors sold shares worth $70.8M and none bought.

  • SaleHai LingChief Financial Officer3× since Feb 23, 2026: 21,923 shares, avg. $579.12$12.7MNov 2, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleJulius GenachowskiDirector741 shares at $587.61$435,418Oct 12, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleJ. Mehra SachinChief Business Officer3× since Aug 5, 2026: 14,710 shares, avg. $577.24$8.5MSep 2, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleLinda Pistecchia KirkpatrickChief Services Officer3× since Aug 4, 2026: 6,394 shares, avg. $572.72$3.7MAug 31, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleMichael MiebachPresident & CEO, Director2× since Jul 31, 2026: 48,628 shares, avg. $574.21$27.9MAug 5, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleSandra A ArkellController2× since Jul 6, 2026: 744 shares, avg. $540.00$401,760Jul 15, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleEdward Grunde McLaughlinPresident & CTO, MA Tech2× since Jul 1, 2026: 34,060 shares, avg. $530.82$18.1MJul 15, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleRaj SeshadriChief Commercial Pmts Officer6,805 shares at $526.37$3.6MJul 2, 202610b5-1 plan

Plus 27 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 5, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.0% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+17.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16.0% vs 17.4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.53% → 59%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

MA screens overvalued: fair value 45% below the price. Compare with Visa Inc →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Note from the team Oct 27, 2026
AI conclusion: Mastercard benefits from strong network effects and pricing power that support solid margins in credit services, yet thin public data on insider activity and human capital leaves the durability of its edge uncertain.
Main risk: Stablecoin platforms offering lower fees and instant settlement could divert cross-border and B2B transaction volumes away from Mastercard's network and reduce its settlement margins.
Bull case: Mastercard could integrate stablecoin rails into its network and expand risk and compliance services to capture value from faster payments without losing core volumes.
Bear case: If stablecoins and regulatory pressure on fees materialise together, Mastercard's traditional transaction volumes and margins could decline as payments shift to cheaper or direct alternatives.
Mastercard runs a high-margin global network that processes enormous volumes of payments with built-in network effects. It is now rolling out services that let AI agents discover, authorize and settle transactions on their own while adding risk tools for stablecoin flows. Our models currently see it as overvalued. Will the new agentic and digital-asset capabilities open meaningful additional revenue streams, or will they mainly protect the core business from disruption?
Join the discussion →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Credit Services · 285 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 85 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −45.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 231.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets 27.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months) 46.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 60.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 14.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 2.36× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 34.1× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 15.96× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 34.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 25.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG 1.66× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 57
FUTURE (revenue growth)70 · sector 58
PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 52
DIVIDEND (yield)11 · sector 63

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Credit Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Synchrony Financial, SYF $74.07 $141.92 +92% vs MA
PayPal Holdings PYPL $58.96 $107.45 +82% vs MA
Shriram Finance Limited SHRIRAMFIN ₹961.15 ₹1,309 +36% vs MA
Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company CHOLAFIN ₹1,785 ₹1,996 +12% vs MA
Affirm Holdings AFRM $69.66 $76.63 +10% vs MA
Bajaj Finance Limited BAJFINANCE ₹1,088 ₹1,055 −3% vs MA
American Express Company AXP $324.97 $210.02 −35% vs MA
Visa Inc V $422.59 $242.87 −43% vs MA
Capital One Financial Corporation COF $203.84 $106.81 −48% vs MA
SoFi Technologies, Inc SOFI $16.04 $5.51 −66% vs MA

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Mastercard Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mastercard Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MA

Frequently asked questions

Is Mastercard Inc (MA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $360.13 versus a price of $655.92, about 45% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MA?
Our model-based fair value for Mastercard Inc is $360.13 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $655.92.
What is the quality score of MA?
Mastercard Inc has a Quality Score of 85/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mastercard Inc (MA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $360.13 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $168.78, optimistic scenario $563.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mastercard Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $360.13, about 45% lower versus a price of $655.92 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $168.78, optimistic scenario $563.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mastercard Inc (MA)?
Mastercard Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $36.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Mastercard Inc pay a dividend?
Mastercard Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.53% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Mastercard Inc (MA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mastercard Inc it is $360.13 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $655.92. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mastercard Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, MA trades above its calculated fair value: price $655.92, fair value $360.13, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($655.92); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($360.13). For Mastercard Inc the two are $295.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mastercard Inc worth?
The market values Mastercard Inc at about $579B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $655.92; our models calculate a fair value of $360.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MA?
Our models span a range for Mastercard Inc: cautious scenario $168.78, base $360.13, optimistic $563.96 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $655.92). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MA?
Mastercard Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.1 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $360.13 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 7 of the years ex one-offs: 35.7. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/S 16.0, EV/EBITDA 25.5.
What is the PEG ratio of MA?
The PEG ratio of Mastercard Inc is 1.66 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mastercard Inc (MA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mastercard Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 231.4%, debt of 2.36 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 85/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MA from its 52-week high?
Mastercard Inc trades at $655.92, about 2% below its 52-week high of $672.68 and 39% above the low of $470.76 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $360.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mastercard Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, Bajaj Finance Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mastercard Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $655.92, calculated fair value $360.13 (−45%), Quality Score 85/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MA calculated?
We run Mastercard Inc through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $360.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.4% above its aggregate fair value. Mastercard Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mastercard Inc (MA)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $655.92. Our model-based fair value is $360.13, about 45% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mastercard Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 85/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($563.96). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($168.78 to $563.96). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Mastercard Inc (MA) come from?
Earnings per share at Mastercard Inc grew +17.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +15.1 %, EBIT margin +0.7 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Mastercard Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Mastercard Inc (MA)?
The market capitalisation of Mastercard Inc is $579B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mastercard Inc (MA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mastercard Inc is 16.0 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mastercard Inc (MA)?
Earnings per share at Mastercard Inc are $19.11 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 34.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mastercard Inc (MA)?
The dividend yield of Mastercard Inc is 0.5% (payout 18.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mastercard Inc (MA)?
The net margin of Mastercard Inc is 46.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mastercard Inc (MA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mastercard Inc is 231% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mastercard Inc (MA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mastercard Inc is 31.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mastercard Inc (MA)?
The operating margin of Mastercard Inc is 60.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mastercard Inc (MA)?
Revenue at Mastercard Inc is growing +14.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mastercard Inc (MA)?
Earnings per share at Mastercard Inc are growing +21.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Mastercard Inc (MA) generate?
The free cash flow of Mastercard Inc is $16.9B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Mastercard Inc (MA) carry?
The net debt of Mastercard Inc is $8.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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