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Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd (8241) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd HK$0.12, price HK$0.18, upside -32.2%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Sep 27, 2026
Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd
8241 · HKWeak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.
!Fair value HK$0.1200 · Overvalued (−32.2%)
!Quality 45/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −4.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -51.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/9)
!Narrow moat 11/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0880 – HK$0.3000 · fair‑value band HK$0.0900 – HK$0.1600 · the HK$0.1770 price screens above the HK$0.1200 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Company profile
Ying Kee Tea House Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail trading of tea products for individual and corporate customers in Hong Kong.
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Ying Kee Tea House Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail trading of tea products for individual and corporate customers in Hong Kong. The company offers various tea products, including pu-erh, green, black, old luk on, white, oolong, jasmine, and fragrant teas, as well as miscellaneous products; and tea wares, gift sets, and Chinese leaves. It is also involved in property holding business. The company was founded in 1881 and is headquartered in Siu Sai Wan, Hong Kong. Ying Kee Tea House Group Limited is a subsidiary of Profit Ocean Enterprises Limited.
Stock analysis
Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd (8241) currently trades at HK$0.1770, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1200, 32.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$0.1200 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$0.1770 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$0.0400, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.0900 (bear) to HK$0.1600 (bull), the price of HK$0.1770 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$30.3M in FY2025 versus HK$36.1M in FY2021, a compound −4.3%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$16.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$64.0M (≈ $8.2M) · P/S ratio 2.07 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0400 · Net margin −55.7% · Return on equity −20,610% · Return on assets (EBIT) −7.4% · Operating margin −26.8% · Revenue (TTM) HK$29.5M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 101% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −32%, 8241 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.0900
Fair Value HK$0.1200
Bull HK$0.1600
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
HK$0.1400
HK$0.2200
HK$0.3600
79
Growth DCF
HK$0.1500
HK$0.2200
HK$0.3500
77
5Y Revenue Exit
HK$0.0500
HK$0.0900
HK$0.1500
70
All 6 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
HK$0.1400
HK$0.2200
HK$0.3600
79
5Y Revenue Exit
HK$0.0500
HK$0.0900
HK$0.1500
70
10Y Revenue Exit
HK$0.0800
HK$0.1200
HK$0.1500
68
Multiples
EV/Revenue
n/a
HK$0.0400
HK$0.0800
46
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
HK$0.1500
HK$0.2200
HK$0.3500
77
Rev-Margin DCF
HK$0.0500
HK$0.1000
HK$0.1600
70
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
45/100
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Profitability
16
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
21
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
78
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
2
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
55
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
75
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
79
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.8%
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−33.8% (2020) → −40.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.4% a year for the price.
8241 screens overvalued: fair value 32% below the price. Compare with Nestlé S.A →
Compare Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 644 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Hong Kong Stocks
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé S.A NESN | CHF 77.17 | CHF 59.51 | −23% |
| Danone S.A BN | €59.56 | €50.65 | −15% |
| Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company 603288 | ¥33.93 | ¥37.32 | +10% |
| The Kraft Heinz Company KHC | $23.45 | $29.20 | +25% |
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,363 | ₹724.74 | −47% |
| Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887 | ¥26.90 | ¥41.84 | +56% |
| Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings 300999 | ¥24.55 | ¥9.98 | −59% |
| General Mills, Inc GIS | $33.64 | $34.59 | +3% |
| Wilmar International Limited F34 | 3.68 SGD | 5.14 SGD | +40% |
| Kerry Group KRZ | €85.55 | €59.96 | −30% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd (8241) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1200 versus a price of HK$0.1770, about −32% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 8241?
Our model-based fair value for Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd is HK$0.1200 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.1770.
What is the quality score of 8241?
Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd (8241)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.1200 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.0900, optimistic scenario HK$0.1600. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.1200, about −32% upside versus a price of HK$0.1770 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.0900, optimistic scenario HK$0.1600. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd (8241)?
Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$29.5M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd (8241)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +14.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -4.0 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 8241 use?
Our models discount Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.39, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd that is +14.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd (8241) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd grew -4.0 % a year. The price currently implies +14.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd (8241) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd (+14.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd (8241)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.71 %: that much free cash flow Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd (8241)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd it is HK$0.1200 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.1770. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 8241 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.1770, fair value HK$0.1200, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8241?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.1770); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.1200). For Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd the two are HK$0.0570 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd worth?
The market values Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd at about HK$64.0M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.1770; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.1200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8241?
Our models span a range for Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.0900, base HK$0.1200, optimistic HK$0.1600 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.1770). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd (8241)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8241 from its 52-week high?
Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd trades at HK$0.1770, about 7% below its 52-week high of HK$0.1900 and 101% above the low of HK$0.0880 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.1200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.1770, calculated fair value HK$0.1200 (−32%), Quality Score 45/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8241 calculated?
We run Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.1200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd (8241)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.1770. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.1200, about −32% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.1600). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd (8241)?
The market capitalisation of Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd is HK$64.0M (≈ $8.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd (8241)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd is 2.07 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd (8241)?
Earnings per share at Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd are HK$−0.0400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd (8241)?
The net margin of Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd is −55.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd (8241)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd is −20,610% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd (8241)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd is −7.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd (8241)?
The operating margin of Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd is −26.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd (8241)?
Revenue at Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd is growing −6.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd (8241)?
Earnings per share at Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd are growing −65.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd (8241) carry?
The net debt of Ying Kee Tea House Group Ltd is HK$90.3M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 18.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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